Jaylen Warren — Week 1: Fumble at the Twenty-Five, Fifteen Touches
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 14
Warren caught a short pass for no gain at the Pittsburgh twenty-seven with two forty-eight left in the first quarter, lost the ball, and Atlanta scored three plays later. He finished with ten carries for forty-six yards and five catches on six targets for twenty-seven, the most touches of any Steeler, with runs of eight and seventeen on the first drive after Pittsburgh went up 20–10, in a 20–13 win over the Falcons.
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Jaylen Warren's afternoon has one play in it that cost more than all the others combined. Second and eight at the Pittsburgh 27, two 48 left in the first quarter, Steelers up three to nothing: Aaron Rodgers short right to Warren, no gain, hit by Mike Hughes and Cameron Thomas, and the ball came out — Thomas forced it, Divine Deablo recovered at the 25. That was −5.1 expected points added, which is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position, and 17 points of win probability, the share of games a team in that spot goes on to win. Atlanta needed three plays from there: two Brian Robinson runs for two net yards and a 23-yard touchdown throw to Bijan Robinson on third and eight.
The rest of the line is 15 touches and no other turnovers. 10 carries, 46 yards, no touchdowns, longest 17, four of the 10 successful, three first downs, −1.2 expected points in total. Six targets, five catches, 27 yards, longest 18, −5.0 on the six — the fumble is all of that and then some. His best stretch on the ground was the first drive after T.J. Watt's interception return made it 20 to 10: first and 10 at the Pittsburgh 40 with 10 35 left, up the middle for eight; second and two, right tackle for 17 to the Atlanta 35, with Troy Fautanu injured on the play and noted as returning later. That drive ended in a sack on third and five and a missed 56-yard field goal. His best stretch through the air was the second-quarter touchdown drive: 18 yards short right on first down from the Atlanta 31 to the 13, seven more to the six, then an incompletion to him on second and three before Pat Freiermuth's score.
Pittsburgh ran 21 times — 10 Warren, eight Rico Dowdle, three Rodgers kneels — and Warren's carries split five and five by half. Five of his six targets came before halftime, one after, on a day the Steelers threw 28 times in the first half and 15 in the second. 10 carries and six targets is the largest workload on the team, and it was still 10 carries.
Back in June the preview said Warren's career year had leaned on touchdown rate and that the opportunity picture was contested after the Steelers signed a back. Sunday the opportunity was his by a couple of touches and the touchdowns were nobody's on the ground — Pittsburgh's only offensive score was a pass to a tight end. 10 to eight is not a settled committee and one game does not make it one; the fumble is the part that will get talked about, and it is one play. Pittsburgh is at the Patriots on Sunday the twentieth. The number to watch is whether 10 eight holds.
_Data via nflverse._
When Jaylen Warren's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
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