Jaylen Warren — Week 7: 101 Yards, 5 of 6 on Third Down

Jaylen Warren carried the offense against the Saints: 18 carries, 101 yards and +4.8 expected points added (EPA), plus 3 catches on 4 targets for 36 yards and +1.2 EPA. EPA is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position. 10 of his 18 carries (56%) gained positive EPA, and he converted 5 of his 6 third-down carries.

He opened with the longest run of the game: second and 7 at the Pittsburgh 42 on the second snap, 29 yards up the middle to the New Orleans 29, +2.6 EPA and 10.4 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. The drive ended in a 28-yard field goal. Tied 10-10 with 1:08 left in the half, third and 1 at the Pittsburgh 49, he went 15 yards up the middle to the New Orleans 34, +1.2 EPA, on a drive that ended in a 47-yard field goal. His 26-yard catch on first and 10 opened the touchdown drive in the second quarter. The one third-down stop came at the end: up 16-10 with 1:49 left, third and 3 at the New Orleans 19, no gain, and an offside penalty on the field goal gave Pittsburgh a first down anyway.

It was his third 100-yard game of the season, after 127 against the Bengals and 101 against the Colts. Through Week 6 he had 84 carries for 460 yards, a touchdown and +5.2 EPA, +0.06 a carry with 44% positive; here it was +0.27.

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_Data via nflverse._