EPA (expected points added)
Expected points added measures how much a single play changed a team's expected points on the drive. In 2025 the Patriots led the league at +0.158 expected points added per play on offense, and the Texans led on defense at -0.131 allowed per play.
Every situation on a field — down, distance, yard line, time — has a scoring value attached to it, measured against what actually happened from that spot in thousands of past games. Expected points added is the difference between the value of the situation before a play and after it. A 4-yard gain on 3rd-and-2 is worth a lot; a 4-yard gain on 3rd-and-9 is worth less than nothing.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
Current leaders — 2025
| # | Team | Off EPA/Play | Off Rk | Def EPA/Play | Def Rk | Plays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England Patriots | 0.16 | 1 | -0.05 | 11 | 1,016 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Rams | 0.14 | 2 | -0.06 | 9 | 1,056 |
| 3 | Buffalo Bills | 0.14 | 3 | -0.02 | 13 | 1,065 |
| 4 | Green Bay Packers | 0.11 | 4 | 0.03 | 22 | 993 |
| 5 | Dallas Cowboys | 0.10 | 5 | 0.17 | 32 | 1,103 |
| 6 | San Francisco 49ers | 0.09 | 6 | 0.07 | 24 | 1,065 |
| 7 | Detroit Lions | 0.08 | 7 | -0.01 | 14 | 1,050 |
| 8 | Chicago Bears | 0.08 | 8 | 0.02 | 19 | 1,096 |
| 9 | Indianapolis Colts | 0.07 | 9 | 0.00 | 16 | 1,011 |
| 10 | Denver Broncos | 0.05 | 10 | -0.09 | 6 | 1,079 |
See the full team expected points added leaderboard — New England Patriots leads.
Why it matters
Yards treat every yard the same. Expected points added does not, which is why it separates offenses that move the ball from offenses that score. For a fantasy roster the team number is context, not a projection: a back on the Patriots offense (+0.158 per play, first in the league) is running behind a unit that reaches the red zone more often than the one ranked 30th. It is one input, and it says nothing about how a coach divides the touches once they get there.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
The counter
Team efficiency is context for opportunity, not a substitute for knowing the role.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
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