EPA (expected points added)
Expected points added measures how much a single play changed a team's expected points on the drive. In 2025 the Patriots led the league at +0.158 expected points added per play on offense, and the Texans led on defense at -0.131 allowed per play.
Every situation on a field — down, distance, yard line, time — has a scoring value attached to it, measured against what actually happened from that spot in thousands of past games. Expected points added is the difference between the value of the situation before a play and after it. A 4-yard gain on 3rd-and-2 is worth a lot; a 4-yard gain on 3rd-and-9 is worth less than nothing.
Team Expected Points Added — 2026 leaders
| # | Team | Off EPA/Play | Off Rk | Def EPA/Play | Def Rk | Plays | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco 49ers | 0.21 | 1 | -0.06 | 6 | 337 | Read |
| 2 | Buffalo Bills | 0.20 | 2 | 0.13 | 30 | 354 | Read |
| 3 | Detroit Lions | 0.18 | 3 | 0.15 | 31 | 330 | Read |
| 4 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.16 | 4 | -0.04 | 12 | 355 | Read |
| 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 0.16 | 5 | -0.10 | 3 | 304 | Read |
| 6 | Carolina Panthers | 0.12 | 6 | -0.01 | 17 | 338 | Read |
| 7 | Baltimore Ravens | 0.11 | 7 | -0.03 | 14 | 361 | Read |
| 8 | Dallas Cowboys | 0.08 | 8 | 0.16 | 32 | 378 | Read |
| 9 | Cincinnati Bengals | 0.07 | 9 | -0.03 | 15 | 308 | Read |
| 10 | New England Patriots | 0.06 | 10 | 0.02 | 20 | 429 | Read |
Why it matters
Yards treat every yard the same. Expected points added does not, which is why it separates offenses that move the ball from offenses that score. For a fantasy roster the team number is context, not a projection: a back on the Patriots offense (+0.158 per play, first in the league) is running behind a unit that reaches the red zone more often than the one ranked 30th. It is one input, and it says nothing about how a coach divides the touches once they get there.
The counter
Team efficiency is context for opportunity, not a substitute for knowing the role.
More football stats explained
- EPA per dropback
- Success rate
- CPOE (completion percentage over expected)
- ANY/A (adjusted net yards per attempt)
- RYOE (rushing yards over expected)
- Target share
- Air yards share
- WOPR (weighted opportunity rating)
- aDOT (average depth of target)
- YAC over expected
- Separation
- Pressure rate
- Blitz rate
- Man and zone coverage splits
- PROE (pass rate over expected)
- Stacked box rate
- Half-PPR (and how it differs from full PPR)
- The usage gap (snaps versus production)
- Pythagorean wins
- Stickiness (what repeats and what does not)
- Snap share
- Pass-snap share
- YPRR (yards per route run)
- Availability (the “stayed” rate)
- Handcuff
- Play-action rate
- Pre-snap motion rate
- Drop rate
- Contested catch rate
- Interception-worthy throws
- Quarterback-fault sacks
- Intended air yards (IAY)
- Deep ball rate
- QB Composite Rating
- Screen pass rate
- No-huddle rate
- RPO rate
- Light box rate
- Throwaway rate
- Catchable throw rate
- Out-of-pocket rate
- Time to throw
- Aggressiveness
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