Pythagorean wins
Pythagorean wins estimate how many games a team should have won from its points scored and allowed. In 2025 the Broncos went 14-3 against 11.0 expected — +3.0 wins beyond the scoring.
The formula compares points scored and points allowed, raised to an exponent of 2.37 for pro football, to produce an expected win total. The gap between actual and expected wins is the part of a record that scoring did not explain. It is usually close-game luck.
Regression Flags — 2025 rankings
| # | Team | 2025 | Pyth W | Delta | 1-Score | TO Margin | Listen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | 6-11 | 9.5 | -3.5 | 1-9 | -2.0 | |
| 2 | New York Giants | 4-13 | 7.1 | -3.1 | 1-7 | -1.0 | |
| 3 | Arizona Cardinals | 3-14 | 5.4 | -2.4 | 2-8 | -1.0 | |
| 4 | Indianapolis Colts | 8-9 | 9.7 | -1.7 | 3-7 | 0.0 | |
| 5 | Washington Commanders | 5-12 | 6.2 | -1.2 | 2-5 | -12.0 | |
| 6 | Baltimore Ravens | 8-9 | 9.1 | -1.1 | 2-5 | -3.0 | |
| 7 | Detroit Lions | 9-8 | 10.0 | -1.0 | 3-5 | +4.0 | |
| 8 | New York Jets | 3-14 | 3.9 | -0.9 | 3-5 | -18.0 | |
| 9 | Cincinnati Bengals | 6-11 | 6.8 | -0.8 | 3-5 | -3.0 | |
| 10 | Tennessee Titans | 3-14 | 3.8 | -0.8 | 2-5 | -7.0 |
Why it matters
The gap regresses hard, and it is the cleanest available warning about a team's next season. Across 2016-2025, the 47 teams that beat their pythagorean estimate by more than 1.5 wins lost 2.86 wins the following year on average, with only 17% improving; the 44 that fell short by the same margin gained 2.07. The Chiefs sit on the other end of 2025 at -3.5. For a roster this is opportunity context: teams that regress throw more and run less.
The counter
It is a team-level prior with real exceptions, and it cannot see a roster change.
More football stats explained
- EPA (expected points added)
- EPA per dropback
- Success rate
- CPOE (completion percentage over expected)
- ANY/A (adjusted net yards per attempt)
- RYOE (rushing yards over expected)
- Target share
- Air yards share
- WOPR (weighted opportunity rating)
- aDOT (average depth of target)
- YAC over expected
- Separation
- Pressure rate
- Blitz rate
- Man and zone coverage splits
- PROE (pass rate over expected)
- Stacked box rate
- Half-PPR (and how it differs from full PPR)
- The usage gap (snaps versus production)
- Stickiness (what repeats and what does not)
- Snap share
- Pass-snap share
- YPRR (yards per route run)
- Availability (the “stayed” rate)
- Handcuff
- Play-action rate
- Pre-snap motion rate
- Drop rate
- Contested catch rate
- Interception-worthy throws
- Quarterback-fault sacks
- Intended air yards (IAY)
- Deep ball rate
- QB Composite Rating
Follow the football you care about. Players, teams, stat boards — press Follow on any of them, and that is what your weekly email is made of. Nothing you didn't ask for.
Drafting this month? Follow the guys you end up with, and your first weekly email lands Week 1 — the real plays and the real numbers behind everyone on your list.
Follow what you care about — free →Ask this data a question
Every figure on this page comes out of Muffed's verified panel — and you can query the whole thing in plain English. No account, no key. Ask the data →
Use Muffed in your AI
Ask Claude or ChatGPT football questions and get these verified figures back, with sources. Add https://muffed.ai/api/mcp — free, no account, no API key.