Pythagorean wins
Pythagorean wins estimate how many games a team should have won from its points scored and allowed. In 2025 the Broncos went 14-3 against 11.0 expected — +3.0 wins beyond the scoring.
The formula compares points scored and points allowed, raised to an exponent of 2.37 for pro football, to produce an expected win total. The gap between actual and expected wins is the part of a record that scoring did not explain. It is usually close-game luck.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
Current leaders — 2025
| # | Team | 2025 | Pyth W | Delta | 1-Score | TO Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | 6-11 | 9.5 | -3.5 | 1-9 | -2.0 |
| 2 | New York Giants | 4-13 | 7.1 | -3.1 | 1-7 | -1.0 |
| 3 | Arizona Cardinals | 3-14 | 5.4 | -2.4 | 2-8 | -1.0 |
| 4 | Indianapolis Colts | 8-9 | 9.7 | -1.7 | 3-7 | 0.0 |
| 5 | Washington Commanders | 5-12 | 6.2 | -1.2 | 2-5 | -12.0 |
| 6 | Baltimore Ravens | 8-9 | 9.1 | -1.1 | 2-5 | -3.0 |
| 7 | Detroit Lions | 9-8 | 10.0 | -1.0 | 3-5 | +4.0 |
| 8 | New York Jets | 3-14 | 3.9 | -0.9 | 3-5 | -18.0 |
| 9 | Cincinnati Bengals | 6-11 | 6.8 | -0.8 | 3-5 | -3.0 |
| 10 | Tennessee Titans | 3-14 | 3.8 | -0.8 | 2-5 | -7.0 |
See the full regression flags leaderboard — Kansas City Chiefs leads.
Why it matters
The gap regresses hard, and it is the cleanest available warning about a team's next season. Across 2016-2025, the 47 teams that beat their pythagorean estimate by more than 1.5 wins lost 2.86 wins the following year on average, with only 17% improving; the 44 that fell short by the same margin gained 2.07. The Chiefs sit on the other end of 2025 at -3.5. For a roster this is opportunity context: teams that regress throw more and run less.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
The counter
It is a team-level prior with real exceptions, and it cannot see a roster change.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
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