Pythagorean wins
Pythagorean wins estimate how many games a team should have won from its points scored and allowed. In 2025 the Broncos went 14-3 against 11.0 expected — +3.0 wins beyond the scoring.
The formula compares points scored and points allowed, raised to an exponent of 2.37 for pro football, to produce an expected win total. The gap between actual and expected wins is the part of a record that scoring did not explain. It is usually close-game luck.
Why it matters
The gap regresses hard, and it is the cleanest available warning about a team's next season. Across 2016-2025, the 47 teams that beat their pythagorean estimate by more than 1.5 wins lost 2.86 wins the following year on average, with only 17% improving; the 44 that fell short by the same margin gained 2.07. The Chiefs sit on the other end of 2025 at -3.5. For a roster this is opportunity context: teams that regress throw more and run less.
The counter
It is a team-level prior with real exceptions, and it cannot see a roster change.
More football stats explained
- EPA (expected points added)
- EPA per dropback
- Success rate
- CPOE (completion percentage over expected)
- ANY/A (adjusted net yards per attempt)
- RYOE (rushing yards over expected)
- Target share
- Air yards share
- WOPR (weighted opportunity rating)
- aDOT (average depth of target)
- YAC over expected
- Separation
- Pressure rate
- Blitz rate
- Man and zone coverage splits
- PROE (pass rate over expected)
- Stacked box rate
- Half-PPR (and how it differs from full PPR)
- The usage gap (snaps versus production)
- Stickiness (what repeats and what does not)
- Snap share
- Pass-snap share
- YPRR (yards per route run)
- Availability (the “stayed” rate)
- Handcuff
- Play-action rate
- Pre-snap motion rate
- Drop rate
- Contested catch rate
- Interception-worthy throws
- Quarterback-fault sacks
- Intended air yards (IAY)
- Deep ball rate
- QB Composite Rating
- Screen pass rate
- No-huddle rate
- RPO rate
- Light box rate
- Throwaway rate
- Catchable throw rate
- Out-of-pocket rate
- Time to throw
- Aggressiveness
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