Stickiness (what repeats and what does not)
Stickiness is how strongly a stat in one season predicts the same stat the next. Across 2016-2025, targets per game repeated at r=0.68 and receiving touchdowns at r=0.36 — measured over 745 qualifying pass-catcher season pairs.
Take every player who cleared a volume floor in two consecutive seasons and correlate the metric with itself, year to year. A correlation near 1 means the stat is a property of the player. Near 0 means this year's figure tells you almost nothing about next year's.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
Current leaders — 2025
| # | Team | 2025 | Pyth W | Delta | 1-Score | TO Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | 6-11 | 9.5 | -3.5 | 1-9 | -2.0 |
| 2 | New York Giants | 4-13 | 7.1 | -3.1 | 1-7 | -1.0 |
| 3 | Arizona Cardinals | 3-14 | 5.4 | -2.4 | 2-8 | -1.0 |
| 4 | Indianapolis Colts | 8-9 | 9.7 | -1.7 | 3-7 | 0.0 |
| 5 | Washington Commanders | 5-12 | 6.2 | -1.2 | 2-5 | -12.0 |
| 6 | Baltimore Ravens | 8-9 | 9.1 | -1.1 | 2-5 | -3.0 |
| 7 | Detroit Lions | 9-8 | 10.0 | -1.0 | 3-5 | +4.0 |
| 8 | New York Jets | 3-14 | 3.9 | -0.9 | 3-5 | -18.0 |
| 9 | Cincinnati Bengals | 6-11 | 6.8 | -0.8 | 3-5 | -3.0 |
| 10 | Tennessee Titans | 3-14 | 3.8 | -0.8 | 2-5 | -7.0 |
See the full regression flags leaderboard — Kansas City Chiefs leads.
Why it matters
This is the whole argument behind buying opportunity and fading a scoring heater, and the verified numbers are more specific than the slogan. Among pass catchers, average depth of target held at 0.90, air yards share at 0.79, targets per game at 0.68 and target share at 0.55 — while receiving touchdowns held at only 0.36 and yards per target at 0.42. In the backfield, carries per game repeated at 0.64 against 0.31 for rushing touchdowns and 0.38 for yards per carry. Role repeats; scoring does not.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
The counter
These are correlations across hundreds of players, not a forecast for one — a low-stickiness stat still repeats for somebody every year.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
Hear the story behind the numbers
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