Stickiness (what repeats and what does not)

Take every player who cleared a volume floor in two consecutive seasons and correlate the metric with itself, year to year. A correlation near 1 means the stat is a property of the player. Near 0 means this year's figure tells you almost nothing about next year's.

This is the whole argument behind buying opportunity and fading a scoring heater, and the verified numbers are more specific than the slogan. Among pass catchers, average depth of target held at 0.90, air yards share at 0.79, targets per game at 0.68 and target share at 0.55 — while receiving touchdowns held at only 0.36 and yards per target at 0.42. In the backfield, carries per game repeated at 0.64 against 0.31 for rushing touchdowns and 0.38 for yards per carry. Role repeats; scoring does not.

These are correlations across hundreds of players, not a forecast for one — a low-stickiness stat still repeats for somebody every year.