Market vs reality (the ADP gap)
The market-versus-reality gap is a player's positional finish minus his positional ADP rank, so a negative number means he beat his price. In 2025 Davante Adams of the Rams returned the most value at -17 — drafted WR25, finished WR8 — and Luther Burden III of the Bears cost the most at +32.
Take where a player finished within his position and subtract where he was drafted within it, scored Half-PPR among players with at least eight games. Both numbers count up from 1, so a negative gap means he finished ahead of his price and a positive gap means he finished behind it.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
Current leaders — 2025
| # | Player | ADP Pos | 2025 Finish | Gap | HPPR/G | G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luther Burden IIIWR · CHI | 21 | 53 | +32.0 | 7.0 | 15 |
| 2 | Justin JeffersonWR · MIN | 5 | 34 | +29.0 | 9.4 | 17 |
| 3 | Bhayshul TutenRB · JAX | 26 | 52 | +26.0 | 5.6 | 15 |
| 4 | DeVonta SmithWR · PHI | 12 | 30 | +18.0 | 9.6 | 17 |
| 5 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 11 | 29 | +18.0 | 10.4 | 17 |
| 6 | DJ MooreWR · BUF | 22 | 38 | +16.0 | 8.7 | 17 |
| 7 | Ladd McConkeyWR · LAC | 20 | 35 | +15.0 | 9.2 | 16 |
| 8 | Emeka EgbukaWR · TB | 15 | 29 | +14.0 | 9.7 | 17 |
| 9 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | 2 | 16 | +14.0 | 16.5 | 13 |
| 10 | Mike EvansWR · SF | 23 | 37 | +14.0 | 8.7 | 8 |
See the full market vs reality leaderboard — Luther Burden III leads.
Why it matters
This is the number that turns a ranking argument into an accounting one. The instructive cases are the ones nobody argued about at the time: Justin Jefferson of the Vikings went WR5 and finished WR34, a +29 gap on one of the most expensive picks in the draft. The gap does not say the market was foolish — injuries and role changes fill most of the list — but it does say what the price assumed, and the price is the part you control on draft day.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
The counter
A gap is a result, not a process; some of the biggest ones were injuries nobody could have priced.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
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