YAC over expected
Yards after catch over expected is the yardage a receiver gained after the ball arrived, minus what the tracking data predicted from the situation. Pat Freiermuth of the Steelers led 2025 tight ends at +2.36 yards per reception.
Next Gen Stats knows where every defender was when the catch was made and estimates the yards an average receiver adds from there. The difference between the actual and that estimate is YAC over expected. Raw yards after catch rewards being schemed open in space; this measures what the player added.
Tight End Receiving Efficiency — 2026 leaders
| # | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Catch% | Sep | YAC+ | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam LaPorta | 37 | 27 | 316 | 73.0% | 3.6 | +0.1 | Read |
| 2 | Brock Bowers | 35 | 24 | 312 | 68.6% | 2.4 | +0.6 | Read |
| 3 | Trey McBride | 56 | 42 | 308 | 75.0% | 2.5 | +0.0 | Read |
| 4 | Isaiah Likely | 48 | 33 | 284 | 68.8% | 2.6 | -0.1 | Read |
| 5 | Dalton Kincaid | 21 | 16 | 277 | 76.2% | 3.2 | +2.3 | Read |
| 6 | George Kittle | 28 | 21 | 268 | 75.0% | 3.3 | +2.1 | Read |
| 7 | Juwan Johnson | 32 | 25 | 248 | 78.1% | 3.9 | +1.2 | Read |
| 8 | Travis Kelce | 22 | 16 | 246 | 72.7% | 3.6 | +3.5 | Read |
| 9 | Dalton Schultz | 31 | 24 | 244 | 77.4% | 3.8 | -0.3 | Read |
| 10 | Brenton Strange | 26 | 21 | 235 | 80.8% | 3.3 | +0.1 | Read |
Why it matters
Two receivers can post identical yards after catch with completely different amounts of credit due. Pat Freiermuth added +2.36 per catch while Kyle Pitts of the Falcons finished last at -0.88, and both were catching passes at similar depths. The number is a skill signal that helps explain a yards-per-reception figure the target volume does not justify. It is a small per-catch edge that needs volume to matter.
The counter
A per-reception edge of a yard or two only shows up in scoring at real target volume.
More football stats explained
- EPA (expected points added)
- EPA per dropback
- Success rate
- CPOE (completion percentage over expected)
- ANY/A (adjusted net yards per attempt)
- RYOE (rushing yards over expected)
- Target share
- Air yards share
- WOPR (weighted opportunity rating)
- aDOT (average depth of target)
- Separation
- Pressure rate
- Blitz rate
- Man and zone coverage splits
- PROE (pass rate over expected)
- Stacked box rate
- Half-PPR (and how it differs from full PPR)
- The usage gap (snaps versus production)
- Pythagorean wins
- Stickiness (what repeats and what does not)
- Snap share
- Pass-snap share
- YPRR (yards per route run)
- Availability (the “stayed” rate)
- Handcuff
- Play-action rate
- Pre-snap motion rate
- Drop rate
- Contested catch rate
- Interception-worthy throws
- Quarterback-fault sacks
- Intended air yards (IAY)
- Deep ball rate
- QB Composite Rating
- Screen pass rate
- No-huddle rate
- RPO rate
- Light box rate
- Throwaway rate
- Catchable throw rate
- Out-of-pocket rate
- Time to throw
- Aggressiveness
Follow the football you care about. Players, teams, stat boards — press Follow on any of them, and that is what your weekly email is made of. Nothing you didn't ask for.
Ask this data a question
Every figure on this page comes out of Muffed's verified panel — and you can query the whole thing in plain English. No account, no key. Ask the data →
Use Muffed in your AI
Ask Claude or ChatGPT football questions and get these verified figures back, with sources. Add https://muffed.ai/api/mcp — free, no account, no API key.