YAC over expected
Yards after catch over expected is the yardage a receiver gained after the ball arrived, minus what the tracking data predicted from the situation. Pat Freiermuth of the Steelers led 2025 tight ends at +2.36 yards per reception.
Next Gen Stats knows where every defender was when the catch was made and estimates the yards an average receiver adds from there. The difference between the actual and that estimate is YAC over expected. Raw yards after catch rewards being schemed open in space; this measures what the player added.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
Current leaders — 2025
| # | Player | Tgt | Rec | Y/Tgt | YAC/Rec | Rec EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 129 | 102 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 39.0 |
| 2 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 103 | 79 | 8.0 | 10.8 | 26.6 |
| 3 | RJ HarveyRB · DEN | 58 | 47 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 19.1 |
| 4 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 94 | 77 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 17.8 |
| 5 | Rhamondre StevensonRB · NE | 37 | 32 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 13.1 |
| 6 | Josh JacobsRB · GB | 44 | 36 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 11.8 |
| 7 | Ty JohnsonRB · BUF | 33 | 24 | 8.0 | 12.5 | 11.4 |
| 8 | Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT | 45 | 40 | 7.4 | 11.0 | 10.6 |
| 9 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 55 | 46 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 9.2 |
| 10 | Travis EtienneRB · JAX | 52 | 36 | 5.6 | 9.4 | 9.1 |
See the full running back receiving efficiency leaderboard — Christian McCaffrey leads.
Why it matters
Two receivers can post identical yards after catch with completely different amounts of credit due. Pat Freiermuth added +2.36 per catch while Kyle Pitts of the Falcons finished last at -0.88, and both were catching passes at similar depths. The number is a skill signal that helps explain a yards-per-reception figure the target volume does not justify. It is a small per-catch edge that needs volume to matter.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
The counter
A per-reception edge of a yard or two only shows up in scoring at real target volume.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
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