Dalton Kincaid

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• Camp · Aug 23, 2026Aug 23, 2026

  Dalton Kincaid Camp Update — August 23: Two Joint-Practice Touchdowns in Berea

  Dalton Kincaid caught two touchdowns from Josh Allen in Thursday's joint practice against the Browns, one of them a fifty-five-yarder in the two-minute drill, then got Saturday's game off with the rest of the starters. The rehabbed knee has now cleared another full week without an entry in the injury file.

• Camp · Aug 16, 2026Aug 17, 2026

  Dalton Kincaid Camp Update — August 16: The Knee Keeps Passing Its Tests

  Dalton Kincaid caught a touchdown from Josh Allen in team work this week, and the knee he chose to rehab instead of repair has held up through camp. The June read said the knee was the gate, and the gate keeps opening.

• 2026 PreviewJul 2, 2026

  Dalton Kincaid 2026 Season Preview — what repeats, what doesn't

  NO CALL — TE12 is fair for the per-game TE10; the career year leaned on efficiency, and DJ Moore caps the ceiling.

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  Show notes & transcript

  Dalton Kincaid played last season on a torn PCL and had the best per-game year of his career. He's also skipping the surgery. The market is paying tight end 12 at pick one-10 for whatever that combination produces next.

  The season: 12 games, 39 catches on 49 targets, 571 yards, five touchdowns — 8.9 Half-PPR points a game, tenth among tight ends who played half the season, eighteenth in total points because of the five games he missed. In the games he played he drew 14.6 percent of Buffalo's targets. The Bills went 12 five and made the wild-card round. He caught 80 percent of his targets, and Buffalo's season ended holding the five seed. Touchdowns were about a quarter of his production — worth flagging in an efficiency-led year.

  Year three was the first time the per-game arrow pointed up: seven-one as a rookie, six-one in year two, eight-nine last season. The rookie year was the durable one — 16 games; the last two years cost him four and then five. He arrived as a first-round pick in 20-23, per ESPN, and the option pickup says the front office still sees that player.

  Now the pattern check, and it has a wrinkle worth saying out loud. For tight ends, targets are what repeats — point-eight correlation year over year in the current era, 238 player-seasons — and Kincaid's target volume was actually modest: 4.1 a game. What spiked was efficiency — nearly 12 yards per target — and for tight ends, efficiency is the stat that does not stick, replicating at barely point-one-five. So the career year was built on the less repeatable ingredient. That doesn't make it fake; it makes it fragile.

  The situation: the knee first. He told reporters in May he'd chosen rehab and strengthening over surgery for the PCL — his own account, per the team site, May nineteenth — and SI's Bills coverage in June had him on track for a full training camp. Buffalo exercised his fifth-year option in April, per Buffalo Rumblings, so the team is invested through 27. The complications: Dawson Knox was retained on a new three-year deal in March, per ESPN, keeping the timeshare alive — and the Bills traded a second-round pick to Chicago for DJ Moore in March, per ESPN and NFL.com, which adds a target-eating starter to Josh Allen's pecking order. Moore's 20-26 salary is fully guaranteed at 23 and a half million, per CBS Sports — Buffalo did not acquire him to ease him in. New voice upstairs, same as last year's promotion cycle: Joe Brady is now head coach and kept play-calling, per the team site, with Pete Carmichael as coordinator.

  The price: TE12 at pick one-10, for the TE10 per-game season. The market has him almost exactly where the rate stats put him. TE12 is the last starter's slot at the position — the price assumes the 12-game rate stretches across a season. Our verdict: no call. The price is fair for the production, and we won't manufacture a take out of a knee we can't examine. The caveat, plainly: the career year leaned on efficiency, which doesn't repeat for tight ends, and Moore's arrival caps the target ceiling — but TE12 was never paying for a ceiling.

  Watch the knee's practice cadence through camp, and whether his target rate holds once Moore is absorbing Allen's attention. A rehabbed PCL without surgery is a workload question, and target rate is how a staff answers it in public. If he's one of your guys, this show exists for your whole roster — every player, every week, all season.

• 2025 ReviewMay 11, 2026

  Dalton Kincaid 2025 Season in Review

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  Show notes & transcript

  Dalton Kincaid finished 2025 as the number 20 tight end in total PPR scoring and the number 14 tight end in PPR per game among players with at least six games. That gap tells you the headline in one breath: when he played, he was a usable starter at a thin position — but he only suited up for 12 of Buffalo's 17 games. A part-time fantasy asset on a full-time-good offense. Josh Allen trusted him in the red zone, but never made him the focal point in an attack where Khalil Shakir led the team in catches and Allen himself ran for 14 touchdowns. Less a breakout, more a narrow role carved out in stone.

  Now let's dig into the numbers. Kincaid caught 39 balls for 571 yards and 5 touchdowns on 49 targets across those 12 games — 10.5 PPR points per game on a boom-or-bust profile, not a steady floor. His average target share sat at 15 percent and his average air yards share at 21 percent, meaning when Buffalo went downfield, he got a meaningful slice of the shots even with modest raw volume. The efficiency story is the 5 scores on 49 targets: more than one in every 10 targets ended in the end zone, an elite touchdown rate for a tight end and the single biggest reason his per-game number held up. Consistency was the problem. He hit a 22.1-point ceiling against the Chiefs in Week 9 and 17.6 against the Dolphins in Week 3 — then cratered to 3.3 at Carolina, 5.7 in the Miami rematch, and a flat zero on no catches at Cleveland in Week 16. He cleared 14 PPR points four times and finished under 10 in seven of his 12 outings. Touchdown variance, not weekly reliability.

  The play that captures the season came on the opening drive against Kansas City in Week 9 — third and 8 from the Chiefs' 23, scoreless game, and Allen dropped a deep ball down the right side for a 23-yard touchdown. One snap. A third-down conversion, an explosive, and a score, all rolled together. That was Kincaid's fantasy year in miniature: when his number got called in a high-leverage spot, he swung the week — but those snaps came in bursts, not on a schedule you could set your watch to.