Dalton Kincaid — Week 1: Three Catches of Thirty-Five or More
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 14
Kincaid caught five of six targets for a hundred thirty yards, and three of the catches went thirty-eight, forty and thirty-five: deep right from the Buffalo four to start the drive that made it 24–14, third and four from the Buffalo forty with 12:44 left to set up the go-ahead field goal, and first and ten from the thirty-two with two minutes left on the drive Josh Palmer finished. His six targets were worth plus seven point six expected points, the most of any receiver on either team, in a 36–31 win over the Texans.
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Third and four at the Buffalo 40, 12 44 left in the fourth quarter, Bills down 27 to 28. Josh Allen went deep right to Dalton Kincaid, 40 yards to the Houston 20. +3.7 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and 17 points of win probability, from about 44 percent to about 61. Buffalo kicked a field goal from there to lead 30 to 28. Then, with two minutes left and the Bills down 30 to 31, first and 10 at the Buffalo 32: short right to Kincaid, pushed out at the Houston 33, 35 yards, another 16 and a half points of win probability, and Palmer's touchdown came three snaps later.
The line: six targets, five catches, a hundred 30 yards, no touchdowns, +7.6 expected points on the targets — the highest total for any receiver in the game, ahead of DJ Moore's +6.4 and Nico Collins's +4.9. The third long one had come earlier: first and 10 from the Buffalo four with two 10 left in the half, Bills up 17 to 14, deep right, 38 yards to the 42, the first of three plays that ended with Moore's 43-yard touchdown. The other two catches were 11 yards on first down at the Houston 27 in the third, on the field-goal drive, and six on second and 10 in the fourth, the play before the 40. The one incompletion was first and 15 at the Houston 48 to open the second quarter, short right. Two targets before halftime, four after.
Six targets put him level with Khalil Shakir and two behind Moore, and the yards put him first on the team by 30. Buffalo threw 29 times plus a two-point try, converted three of nine third downs, and Kincaid's 40-yarder was one of the three.
Back in June this show made no call on Kincaid: the career year had leaned on efficiency, and DJ Moore's arrival was expected to cap the ceiling. The first game with Moore in the lineup went the other way — Moore was thrown to eight times, and Kincaid still had the most yards and the best expected points of anyone catching passes in the building. That is a contradiction of the June read, and it is one game, built on three catches, which is the kind of day the efficiency concern was about. Buffalo is home to the Lions on Thursday the seventeenth. Whether six targets is the role or the day is the thing to find out.
_Data via nflverse._
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