Josh Allen (QB, Buffalo Bills) — 2026 fantasy outlook, updated Oct 13, 2026.
In 2025, Josh Allen finished QB1 at 22.8 Half-PPR points per game (364.6 total) across 16 games.
Based on verified 2025 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring.
Allen completed 12 of 19 passes for 210 yards and a touchdown and ran 10 times for 121 yards and another score against the Rams, including the 57-yard overtime throw to Khalil Shakir, in a 37-34 Bills win in Los Angeles.
When Josh Allen's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
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Where he ranks — 2026
- #3Quarterback EPA per Dropback
- #3QB Composite Rating
- #4Interception-Worthy Throw Rate
- #6Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- #6Quarterback Pressure Rate
- #6Throwaway Rate
- #6Out-of-Pocket Rate
- #7Clean-Core Rating
- #8Quarterback Deep Ball
- #10Availability
- #10Quarterbacks vs the Blitz
- #11Catchable Throw Rate
- #12Quarterback-Fault Sack Rate
- #14Quarterback Intended Air Yards
- #16Completion Percentage Over Expected
- #17Quarterbacks vs Man and Zone Coverage
- #19Time to Throw
- #26Aggressiveness
- #28Goal-Line Usage
- #159Usage vs Production
Compared with
Side-by-side verified 2025 production, and which side rests on inputs that repeat.
Bills backfield and handcuffs — the depth chart behind him, refreshed daily.
More episodes
- Week 4
Josh Allen — Week 4: The Last Throw Went to Woodson
Allen completed 23 of 33 throws for 253 yards, a 34-yard touchdown to Keon Coleman that put Buffalo ahead with 4:33 left, and ran for a 2-yard touchdown, but his deep throw for Josh Palmer with 1:14 left, down three, was intercepted at the New England 19, in a 29–26 loss to the Patriots.
- Week 3
Josh Allen — Week 3: Three Turnovers, Two Touchdown Runs
Allen completed 16 of 26 throws for 204 yards with no touchdown and two interceptions, both for DJ Moore and both by Genesis Smith, was sacked four times and lost a fumble. He ran for two 1-yard touchdowns, the second the go-ahead score with 7:37 left, and his fourth-and-6 throw to Ty Johnson was the largest win-probability swing of the game, in a 24–16 win over the Chargers.
- Week 2
Josh Allen — Week 2: Five Touchdowns, Three on Third Down
Allen completed 20 of 31 throws for 248 yards and three touchdowns with no interception, took two sacks, and ran eleven times for 72 yards and two more scores, converting three third-and-ones himself on one third-quarter drive. Buffalo converted nine of eleven third downs, in a 41–31 win over the Lions.
- Week 1
Josh Allen — Week 1: Third and Eleven From the Thirty-Four
Allen threw for three hundred thirty-four yards and two touchdowns, ran for two more, and won the game on third and eleven at the Houston thirty-four with a minute forty-one left, down 30–31: deep middle to Josh Palmer, thirty-four yards, the end of a ninety-six-yard drive that started at the Buffalo four. Twenty completions on twenty-nine throws plus a failed two-point try, no interceptions, two sacks, in a 36–31 win over the Texans in Houston.
- Camp · Aug 31, 2026
Josh Allen Camp Update — August 31: Five Receivers Left Standing
Cut day left Josh Allen a two-quarterback room and five wide receivers, two of whom have not been reported back at practice since injuries earlier in camp. Kyle Allen won the backup job — Shane Buechele was released three days after going twenty-six of thirty-eight and leading the game-winning drive in the finale.
- Camp · Aug 23, 2026
Josh Allen Camp Update — August 23: Four Touchdowns to the Tight Ends
Josh Allen's week was Thursday's joint practice in Berea, where the team site logged him throwing two touchdowns each to Dalton Kincaid and Jackson Hawes, one a fifty-five-yarder in the two-minute drill. He then watched Saturday's thirty-one to seven win from the sideline while his backups staged a genuine competition.
- Camp · Aug 16, 2026
Josh Allen Camp Update — August 16: Six of Eight in the New Building
Josh Allen opened the new Highmark Stadium six of eight for one hundred eleven yards and a touchdown in two series. The repaired foot and the new-old head coach both look like non-issues.
- 2026 Preview
Josh Allen 2026 Season Preview — the floor is made of legs
Allen's 2025 season was built on the combination of elite passing volume and sustained rushing contribution that has defined his profile for years, producing 22.8 half-PPR points per game across 16 games. His 97.6% availability rate from 2021–25 confirms that the floor is as durable as it is high. The rushing yards and touchdowns that juice the ceiling are efficiency-dependent and less repeatable, but the opportunity structure underneath them is among the most stable in the position.
Show notes & transcript
Josh Allen was the number one fantasy quarterback again last season — second straight year — and he's priced as the first quarterback off the board. The market is right. But why it's right is the useful part, because his floor is built from the one quarterback trait that actually repeats. The Muffed 2026 preview.
The season: QB1, total and per game, in just 16 games. And here's the thing that surprises people — his passing was merely good: 3600 yards, 25 touchdowns, top-12-ish accuracy. The separator is his legs. 579 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns — the third-most rushing scores of any player at any position. The signature was a 42 point eruption against Tampa Bay. 11 of 16 games cleared 19 points: a floor most quarterbacks can't sniff.
The arc is remarkable stability: QB1, QB2, QB1, QB2, QB1 over five seasons. He doesn't have down years, and the reason is structural, not luck.
Here's the pattern that makes him a NO CALL instead of a worry. We studied which top-six quarterback seasons repeat: the ones built on rushing — 25 percent or more of their points from running — repeat as top-six at 61 percent, versus 24 percent for pocket passers. Allen's rushing share is 39 percent, the most rush-dependent profile in the league. He is the single safest bet at the position because his points come from the part of the game that's stickiest year to year. The passing can dip; the legs don't.
The situation is more than mild churn this time, per the reports: Buffalo fired Sean McDermott in January after nine seasons and promoted Joe Brady — Allen's play-caller since 2022 — to head coach, and the team traded for receiver DJ Moore to upgrade the pass-catching room. New voice who already knows him, better weapon. Allen himself also had a January procedure: a fifth-metatarsal fracture in his foot that he played through the back half of the season, repaired by surgery, with the team saying he'd be full-go for the offseason program — which he was. Neither the coaching change nor the foot touches the rushing floor that drives his value. The honest caveat: a new system, even a familiar one, carries some noise, and 25 passing touchdowns is a number you'd like to see climb back toward the mid-thirties he posted earlier in his career.
The price: pick 23, QB1. Verdict: NO CALL — the most reliable points-per-game profile at the position, priced first. The counter that keeps it from being a pound-the-table buy: in a one-quarterback league, positional value matters, and you can get 80 percent of a quarterback's points several rounds later — so QB1 at pick 23 is correct, not a bargain. Pay it if you want the floor; don't pretend it's free.
September watch: the rushing volume — as long as he's running 14-touchdown pace, nothing else matters; and the chemistry with DJ Moore, the swing factor on his passing ceiling. He's one of your guys? This show covers your whole roster — every player, every week, all season.
- 2025 Review
Josh Allen 2025 Season in Review
Show notes & transcript
Josh Allen finished 2025 as the number 1 quarterback in total fantasy points AND points per game. That's the headline — and it's the second year in a row. He did it in 16 games, not 17, and without leading the league in a single passing category. The identity was the one that's defined him since he became Josh Allen: a two-position fantasy asset playing one position on the field. Buffalo handed him the offense and the goal line, and he smashed that role into the most reliable weekly ceiling at the position.
Now let's dig into the numbers, because the why is more interesting than the what. Allen averaged 22.8 fantasy points per game, and the rushing profile is the separator: 579 yards on 112 carries at 5.2 a pop, with 14 rushing touchdowns — the number 3 mark in the entire league at any position. As a passer he was good, not elite — 3,668 yards, 25 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, a 69.3 completion percentage, and a completion percentage over expected of plus 1.5, which ranked 15th among qualified passers. His adjusted net yards per attempt of 6.8 was the number 10 mark among starters. So the passing line is roughly top-12; the fantasy finish is number 1. The rushing touchdowns are the delta. The weekly shape was high-floor with real ceiling spikes and a few genuine dips — four games above 28 points, including a 42.7 against Tampa Bay and a 38.8 against Baltimore in week one, but single-digit outings at Houston and at Cleveland, plus an 11.8 at the Jets in week two. 11 of 16 games cleared 19 points. That's the floor that powered the number 1 per-game finish.
The single play that captures the season came in week 14 against the Bengals. Fourth quarter, second and 10 at the Cincinnati 40, Buffalo trailing 28 to 18. Allen pulled it down, scrambled left, ran 40 yards untouched for the score. That's the Josh Allen fantasy bet in one snap — a pure dropback turning into a rushing touchdown because the quarterback is also the team's most dangerous runner near the sticks. Buffalo won 39 to 34. Allen finished with 37.8. The passing volume is what it is. The legs are why he was the number 1 quarterback again.
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