Week 6 ran from Thursday, October 15, when Denver beat Seattle 17-14 in overtime, to Monday night, when San Francisco held off Washington 23-17. Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami and Minnesota had byes, so it was 14 games, and 11 of them were decided by eight points or fewer. Tennessee won for the first time, 26-20 in Indianapolis, and the Chargers are the league's only 0-6 team.
Of the 93 games played through six weeks, 57 were one-score games, 61%. That is the highest share through Week 6 in any season since 2016; the 2016-2025 average over the same weeks was 55%.
A season of close games produces records that run ahead of, or behind, the teams that own them. So this issue builds a ruler for that, from the same ten seasons as the last three issues, 2016-2025: every team's first six games against the rest of its regular season, 320 team-seasons in all.
The tool is expected wins: the record a team's points scored and points allowed usually produce. Score 177 and allow 110 over six games, as San Francisco has, and the formula expects about 4.5 wins. San Francisco has six. The difference, 1.5 wins, is what this issue calls running ahead of the points.
Here is the ruler. Each number is a correlation between something a team did over its first six games and how often it won afterwards; 1.00 would mean a perfect guide, zero no guide at all.
- Expected wins from points, as a share of games: 0.45.
- Record, as a share of games won: 0.43.
- Point differential, per game: 0.43.
- Net expected points added (EPA) per play, how many points each offensive snap added to the expected score minus how many each defensive snap gave up: 0.42.
- Wins above or below expected, per game, against the same gap the rest of the way: 0.12.
- Record in one-score games, against the record in one-score games after: 0.13.
The first four are close to a tie. The last two are close to nothing. A team that has won more than its points say it should has, mostly, been lucky with its timing, and timing does not repeat.
From 2016 to 2025, 36 teams were a full win or more ahead of their points after six games. They had won 78% of those games while their points said 55%. They won 58% of the rest. About a tenth of the edge survived. The 35 teams a full win behind had won 27% while their points said 49%, and won 46% of the rest, so roughly nine-tenths of the gap closed for them too.
Six teams are at least a full win ahead this season: San Francisco, Buffalo, Cleveland and Denver after six games, and Kansas City and Minnesota after five. Three are a full win behind: Tampa Bay, the Chargers and Houston. A lucky win still counts in the standings, so the ruler has a different message for each.
Cleveland and Denver are 4-2 on close games. The luck will fade; the wins are already banked.
Issue 10 called Cleveland's 3-2 "noise for now" and pointed at Baltimore. Cleveland won 13-10, and it was the Browns' fourth one-score win in five tries.
Baltimore led 10-3 into the fourth quarter. With 12:45 left, Carson Schwesinger forced a fumble from Derrick Henry and Tyson Campbell recovered it at the Baltimore 35; Audric Estimé ran in from the 2 seven plays later to tie it. Andre Szmyt then missed a 48-yard field goal with 3:44 left. Cleveland got one more chance. On third-and-5 from its own 38 with 42 seconds to go, Deshaun Watson hit Jerry Jeudy for 33 yards; three runs later Szmyt made a 37-yarder as time expired.
Watson went 16 of 26 for 164 yards and was sacked five times. Cleveland's offense ranks 26th by EPA per play over six games, its net EPA 23rd. It has been outscored by 16 points and has scored 106, the fewest of any team with a winning record. Its points say 2.5 wins. It has four.
Denver is the same shape. It beat Seattle 17-14 on Thursday with Bo Nix throwing for 107 yards on 17 of 27. The defense won it: Kris Abrams-Draine intercepted Sam Darnold at the Denver 31 with 1:31 left in a 14-11 game, and after Seattle tied it with a field goal, Ja'Quan McMillian intercepted Darnold again in overtime to set up Wil Lutz's 53-yard winner. Denver is 4-0 in one-score games, outscored by 11, with an offense ranked 25th, a defense ninth and a net EPA 20th. Its points say 2.7 wins.
The ruler is more generous here than you might expect. From 2016 to 2025, 13 teams were 4-2 after six games while being outscored. Nine of them reached the playoffs, and they won 55% of their remaining games. The 14 teams at 4-2 that ranked 17th or worse by net EPA made it 8 times. Wins banked above expectation are a real head start in a playoff race, even when the team behind them is average.
What the ruler will not do is promise more close wins. One-score records carry at 0.13. The 16 teams that won at least four one-score games and lost no more than one over their first six went on to win 64% of their later ones, good, but well short of the 80% or better they had managed.
The read: believe the standings, not the team. Cleveland and Denver are likely to win about half their remaining games, and with four wins already banked that may be enough.
Buffalo is 5-1 with the 30th-ranked defense. No team that has won five of its first six had one ranked lower than 28th.
Issue 10 flagged the Raiders' defense against Buffalo's top-ranked offense. The offense won that matchup and the game, 33-30 in Las Vegas.
Kirk Cousins had just tied it at 23 with an 11-yard touchdown to Tre Tucker with 8:13 left. Buffalo answered. On third-and-3 from the Las Vegas 29, Josh Allen threw short to James Cook, who got out of bounds at the 3, 26 yards later, and Cook ran it in on the next play. Tyler Bass added a field goal for a 33-23 lead, which mattered when Tucker caught a 44-yard touchdown with 1:39 left. Allen went 23 of 33 for 255 yards and two touchdowns; Cook ran 22 times for 95 yards.
Buffalo's offense ranked fourth of the 28 teams that played in Week 6 and is second over six games, behind San Francisco. It has scored 197 points, the most in the league. The defense is the problem: it ranks 30th by EPA allowed per play, and it has ranked 20th or lower in five of six weeks. Buffalo has allowed 171 points, the fourth most, and is 4-1 in one-score games. Its points say 3.5 wins. It has five.
Of the 42 teams with five or more wins after six games from 2016 to 2025, the lowest-ranked defense was 28th: the 2018 Chiefs, with the league's best offense, who went 7-3 the rest of the way and made the playoffs. Widen it to four wins and two teams sat lower and finished 9-1: the 2017 Patriots, 32nd, and the 2020 Bills, 29th.
The record is safe. Teams at 5-1 reached the playoffs 31 times in 35, and 15 of the 16 that were a full win ahead of their points made it. The defense is less likely to rescue itself. Defense carries from six games to the rest of a season at 0.32, offense at 0.56. Of the 30 defenses ranked in the bottom three after six games, 21 stayed in the bottom half and 5 climbed into the top ten. Buffalo's defense ranked 13th across 2025, a reason for hope, not a forecast.
The Raiders' defense has answered Issue 9's question. It ranked first after two weeks and fourth after four. Then it gave up 45 points in New England and 33 to Buffalo, ranking 25th of 28 for Week 6, and it is 22nd over six games. The four-game ruler warned about this: of the 50 defenses ranked top five after four games, 14 stayed top five and 15 finished in the bottom half. Las Vegas is 3-3, its point differential exactly zero, its record and its points in perfect agreement.
San Francisco is 6-0 and ahead of its points. So was nearly every 6-0 team, and all of them made the playoffs.
San Francisco led Washington 23-3 in the third quarter on Monday night, after Brock Purdy's 11-yard touchdown to George Kittle and two 1-yard runs by Christian McCaffrey. Washington scored the next 14 points. With two minutes left and the 49ers up 23-17, the Commanders had fourth-and-3 at the San Francisco 17. Jayden Daniels threw deep right for Treylon Burks, and it fell incomplete.
Purdy went 21 of 29 for 264 yards and a touchdown; McCaffrey ran 16 times for 64 yards and caught 9 of 10 targets for 53. The offense ranked second for the week and is first over six games, at +0.21 EPA per play, after sitting a thousandth of a point behind Buffalo a week ago. San Francisco ranks first in net EPA and sixth on defense.
San Francisco is also 1.5 wins ahead of its points: 3-0 in one-score games, and a +67 point differential that, over six games, usually buys 4.5 wins. History says that is normal for teams this good. Seven teams started 6-0 from 2016 to 2025, and five of them were at least 1.2 wins ahead of their points at the time. All seven reached the playoffs, and together they won 66% of their remaining games. A 6-0 team has usually been both good and fortunate, and the good part is what carries.
The one caution is that first place by net EPA is not a lock. Of the ten teams that ranked first after six games, eight reached the playoffs, and four stayed top five the rest of the way. San Francisco's offense, though, is the half that repeats: of the 20 offenses ranked first or second after six games, 17 finished the season top ten.
Kansas City and Minnesota are in the same place after five games. Kansas City beat the Chargers 22-6, its defense first in the league for the week, and ranks second in net EPA with a +57 differential. Minnesota had its bye and stays 5-0, with the league's best defense and its 27th-ranked offense. Both are about 1.1 wins ahead of their points. Teams that started 5-0 reached the playoffs 14 times in 15 over the last ten seasons.
Houston is the 2-4 team to believe in. Tampa Bay is the 1-5 team that has lost the coin flips.
Issue 10 sent Houston to Jacksonville, 4-1, and called Houston's play "leaning real". The Texans won 34-31. C.J. Stroud went 24 of 34 for 312 yards, three touchdowns and an interception, and Houston's offense ranked first of 28 for the week at +0.23 EPA per play. The defense ranked 26th and gave up four touchdown passes to Trevor Lawrence. Jacksonville's Cam Little tied it at 31 with a 60-yard field goal at the two-minute warning. Stroud converted a third-and-2 with a 19-yard throw, and Ka'imi Fairbairn won it from 49 yards with three seconds left.
Houston is 2-4 with a point differential of +1, the kind that usually comes with a 3-3 record; its points say 3.0 wins. It is 1-3 in one-score games, and it ranks 14th in net EPA, 12th on offense and 20th on defense after ranking first on defense across 2025.
The ruler is kinder to that profile than the standings are. From 2016 to 2025, 59 teams started 2-4 and 9 reached the playoffs. The 15 of them that ranked in the top half by net EPA made it 4 times and won 51% of their remaining games; the 44 in the bottom half made it 5 times and won 41%. Among them: last season's Texans were 2-4 with the ninth-ranked net EPA and went 10-1 the rest of the way.
Tampa Bay is the other side of the luck line. All six of its games have been one-score games, and it has won one of them: 27-33 to Cincinnati, 19-23 to Cleveland, 16-23 to Minnesota, 14-17 to Green Bay, a 24-16 win in Dallas and Sunday's 26-19 overtime loss to Pittsburgh. With the score tied at 16 and 1:46 left, Jalon Daniels threw an interception that Jamel Dean returned 40 yards to the Tampa Bay 3. Chase McLaughlin's 53-yard field goal tied it again at 19 with 13 seconds left, and Aaron Rodgers threw the winning touchdown in overtime.
Only nine teams in ten seasons opened with six one-score games. Its defense ranks fourth, its offense 29th, and its points say 2.5 wins. It has one. The trouble is how deep the hole already is. Teams that were a full win behind their points won 46% of their remaining games, but 1-5 teams reached the playoffs twice in 41, and none of the three 1-5 teams that ranked 21st or better by net EPA made it.
Real or Noise
The verdicts, calibrated on six games. These grade the story, not the team.
- "Cleveland is a playoff team": the record, leaning real; the team, noise. 4-2 teams that had been outscored made the playoffs 9 times in 13. But Cleveland is 23rd by net EPA, outscored by 16 and 4-1 in one-score games, and one-score records carry at 0.13.
- "Denver has learned to win close": noise. 4-0 in one-score games with the 25th-ranked offense and a point differential of -11. Teams with at least four close wins and one loss or fewer won 64% of their later ones.
- "Buffalo's defense will cost it": real, but not the season. 30th by EPA allowed, and no team with five or more wins after six games has ranked lower than 28th. 5-1 teams made the playoffs 31 times in 35.
- "San Francisco has been lucky": real, and it does not matter much. 1.5 wins ahead of its points, as five of the seven 6-0 teams in ten seasons were. All seven made the playoffs.
- "Houston is back in it": leaning real. 14th by net EPA, +1 in point differential at 2-4. Top-half 2-4 teams won 51% of their remaining games and made the playoffs 4 times in 15, last season's Texans among them.
The Receipts
Verified numbers worth keeping in your pocket.
- Wins above or below what a team's points predict carry from the first six games to the rest of the season at 0.12. Teams a full win ahead kept about a tenth of the edge. Ten seasons, 2016-2025.
- 61% of this season's games have been decided by eight points or fewer, 57 of 93. That is the highest share through six weeks in any season since 2016; the average was 55%.
- Teams that started 6-0 reached the playoffs 7 times in 7; teams that started 0-6, none of 9. San Francisco is 6-0. The Chargers are 0-6.
Read more
- Cleveland's 13-10 win over Baltimore, Deshaun Watson's Week 6 and Jerry Jeudy's
- Denver's overtime win over Seattle, Bo Nix and Sam Darnold
- Buffalo in Las Vegas, Josh Allen, James Cook and the Raiders' side
- San Francisco against Washington, Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey
- Houston's win in Jacksonville, C.J. Stroud and Trevor Lawrence's four touchdowns
- Tampa Bay's overtime loss to Pittsburgh and Kansas City's win over the Chargers
- The boards behind this issue: team EPA and stat stickiness
- Last week's issue: Which records are telling the truth?
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Next week: Cleveland visits Tennessee, Denver goes to Arizona, Kansas City plays in Seattle, Houston hosts the Giants, San Francisco visits Atlanta, Tampa Bay visits Carolina, and Buffalo has its bye.
Methodology: Week 6 of 2026 is the 14 games from Thursday, October 15 through Monday, October 19; Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami and Minnesota had byes, and they, Kansas City and Carolina have played five games. Team offense and defense are EPA per play on regular-season plays whose type is a pass or a run (scrambles included, penalty no-plays excluded), offense as the possession team and defense as EPA allowed; net EPA is offense minus defense. Ranks are among all 32 teams over Weeks 1-6 together unless a single week is named, in which case they are among the 28 teams that played. Records, scores and point differentials are from nflverse's schedule file, with ties counted as half a win; a one-score game is decided by eight points or fewer. Expected wins are the Pythagorean expectation, points scored to the 2.37 power over the sum of points scored and allowed each to the 2.37 power, times games played; wins above or below expected are actual wins minus that. The six-game ruler is 2016-2025: each team's first six regular-season games against its seventh game onward (320 team-seasons), as Pearson correlations, with rest-of-season win rate as the outcome for expected wins, record, point differential and net EPA, and each measure against itself for wins above expected (per game), offense and defense. The one-score correlation uses the 292 team-seasons with at least two one-score games in each window. Group win rates pool wins over games. Ranks in the ruler are within each season, for the first six games and the rest separately; playoff rates use each team's record after six games and whether it played a postseason game that season. The four-game defense figures use each team's first four games the same way. Player lines are nflverse's weekly player stats; plays are retold from nflverse play-by-play. No charting figures are used this week. Data via nflverse.