49ers 23, Commanders 17 — Week 6: 23-3, Then a Stop at the 17

San Francisco beat Washington 23-17 at home on Monday night to go 6-0, and needed a fourth-down stop at its own 17 with 2:00 left to do it. The 49ers scored on four of their first six drives and led 23-3 midway through the third quarter, then went three-and-out three straight times while the Commanders scored twice. Nine drives produced three touchdowns, a field goal, a lost fumble and four three-and-outs.

The passing game fell well short of its standard, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures the gap. Its 31 pass plays were worth -1.6 EPA, -0.05 a play against +0.39 through Week 5, and 35.5% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Brock Purdy completed 21 of 29 for 264 yards and a touchdown, with no interceptions, and was sacked twice. Mike Evans caught 3 of 5 targets for 94 yards and was injured on the last of them, with 1:10 left in the half. The big one came up 7-3 with 8:43 left in the first: first and 10 at the San Francisco 28, Purdy went deep right and Evans was pushed out at the Washington 18 after 54 yards, +3.5 EPA and 8.4 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. George Kittle caught 5 of 8 for 69 yards and the first touchdown. The miss came up 13-3 in the second quarter: McCaffrey caught a short pass for 12 yards to the Washington 21, K'Lavon Chaisson forced a fumble and Frankie Luvu recovered, -4.4 EPA.

The run game Smashed, and success rate says how often: 72.4% of its 29 rush plays succeeded, against 49.2% through Week 5. Together they were worth +14.0 EPA, +0.48 a play against +0.01, for 126 yards and two touchdowns. More than half of that came from Purdy: 5 carries, 28 yards, +7.6 EPA, every one a success. Up 7-3 with 5:42 left in the first, fourth and 3 at the Washington 11, he scrambled left for 7 yards to the 4, +3.1 EPA and 6.5 points of win probability, and McCaffrey scored from the 1 three snaps later. Up 13-3 with 49 seconds left in the half, fourth and 1 at the 3, Purdy ran up the middle for 2, and McCaffrey scored on the next snap for 20-3. McCaffrey ran 16 times for 64 yards and both touchdowns, +5.4 EPA. Kaelon Black added 34 yards on 8 carries.

The pass defense held for a half and bent after it, and success rate allowed shows the bend: 52.4% of Washington's 42 pass plays succeeded, against 40.2% allowed through Week 5. They were worth +2.9 EPA, +0.07 a play against -0.01 allowed through Week 5; on defense a positive number is the bad direction. Washington's 16 first-half snaps were worth -6.0 EPA, its 42 after halftime +5.6. Jayden Daniels completed 29 of 40 for 300 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Down 23-3 late in the third, fourth and 5 at the San Francisco 31, Daniels found Stefon Diggs for 13 yards, +3.3 EPA, and Diggs caught the 1-yard touchdown on that drive. Early in the fourth, Osa Odighizuwa's roughing-the-passer penalty added 9 yards to a 23-yard catch on third and 8, and Rachaad White scored from the 9 on the next snap. Odighizuwa, Gracen Halton and Mykel Williams had a sack each.

The run defense beat its own standard, and EPA per play says by how much: Washington's 16 rush plays were worth -3.2 EPA, -0.20 a play against -0.15 allowed through Week 5; here a negative number is good. Only 37.5% succeeded, for 54 yards. White ran 7 times for 27 and Jeremy McNichols 5 for 13. The longest run of the night did not count: down 23-17 with 4:19 left, McNichols went 31 yards for a touchdown, and Washington's own facemask penalty took it off the board.

The game turned on fourth and 3 at the San Francisco 17 with 2:00 left. A minute earlier, Romello Height and Jaden Dugger had sacked Daniels on fourth and 8, and Ashtyn Davis's illegal-contact penalty erased it and gave Washington a first down at the 24. On third and 3 at the 17, Malik Mustapha stopped McNichols for no gain. On fourth down Daniels threw deep right for Treylon Burks, and Mustapha broke it up: -3.0 EPA and 22.1 points of win probability for Washington, the biggest swing of the game. The offense could not run out the clock, and Siran Neal's fair-catch interference on the punt handed Washington the ball at its own 46 with 52 seconds left. Daniels reached the San Francisco 28, an intentional grounding pushed him back to the 40, and White and Height split the sack that ended it.

Last week's notebook asked about Purdy's throws and McCaffrey's room to run. The running answered: +5.4 EPA on 16 carries, his best total of the season. The passing did not: -0.05 a play after -0.10 in Week 5, its first two weeks below zero this season. The one to watch next: whether the passing game gets back toward its +0.39 through Week 5, and whether an offense that gained 7 yards on its last 9 plays can close the next one.

That's your 49ers, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the 49ers on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._