Week 8 ran from Thursday, October 29, when Green Bay beat Carolina 27-19, to Monday night, when Chicago won 34-17 in Seattle. Houston, New Orleans, San Francisco and the Giants had byes, so it was 14 games. Seven were decided by eight points or fewer, and two went to overtime: Cincinnati beat Tennessee 43-36 and Arizona beat Dallas 33-30.
Minnesota lost for the first time, 19-15 in Detroit. Jacksonville beat Indianapolis 42-7, led 28-0 at halftime, and moved to first in the league in net expected points added per play. Buffalo beat Baltimore 36-10 and held the Ravens to 91 passing yards. Tampa Bay shut out Atlanta 16-0 without completing a pass. The Chargers lost 24-9 to the Rams and are 0-7. Philadelphia lost 27-10 in Washington, its sixth loss in a row.
Every team has now played seven or eight of its 17 games. The question changes here. It is less "who is good" than "who is still in it," and the standings have started to answer on their own. So this issue builds a ruler for the halfway point from the same ten seasons as the last five issues, 2016-2025: every team's record and play after Week 8, set against how the rest of its season went and whether it reached the playoffs.
The measure of play is net expected points added (EPA) per play: how many points each offensive snap added to the expected score, minus how many each defensive snap gave up.
Here is the ruler.
- One win or fewer after Week 8: 0 playoff teams in 30. Not one.
- Two wins: 3 in 44. Three wins: 11 in 74.
- Four wins: 28 in 62. Five wins: 41 in 57.
- Six or more: 49 in 53.
- Of the 132 playoff teams in those ten seasons, 107 had a winning record after Week 8. Forty-two had four wins or fewer, about four a season, and none had fewer than two.
For the rest of the season, a team's record so far, its point differential and its net EPA are about equally good guides at this point: correlations of 0.41, 0.42 and 0.41 with its win rate from Week 9 on, where 1.00 would be a perfect guide. Inside the net number, offense carries far better than defense: a team's offense through Week 8 correlates with its offense the rest of the way at 0.57, its defense at 0.34.
Read across this season's table, the ruler closes three doors and leaves most of the rest ajar. The Chargers, Tennessee and Miami have one win or fewer. Six teams have two. Thirteen teams have five or more, against 11 in an average season, and teams with five or more have reached the playoffs 90 times in 110.
Minnesota lost and is still in the safest place in football. No six-win team in ten seasons had an offense this low.
Detroit beat Minnesota on the ground. The Lions ran 39 times for 230 yards, 164 of them after halftime, and Jahmyr Gibbs had 23 carries for 153 yards, including a 30-yard touchdown up the middle in the third quarter. Minnesota's run defense came in ranked fourth, allowing -0.11 EPA per run; on defense a negative number is good. On Sunday it allowed +0.03 per run, 19th of the 28 teams that played, and the 230 yards were the most it has given up this season.
Minnesota still led late. Down 12-7 early in the fourth quarter, on first-and-10 from his own 39, Kyler Murray threw deep over the middle to Jordan Addison for 51 yards to the Detroit 10. Two plays later he hit T.J. Hockenson for an 8-yard touchdown, and a two-point throw to Addison made it 15-12 with 8:44 left. Detroit answered with 69 yards in seven plays, five of them runs, and Jared Goff threw 7 yards to Jameson Williams for the lead with 4:40 left. Minnesota went three-and-out, and Detroit ran out the last 2:53.
Murray went 17 of 29 for 210 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, and was sacked three times. Minnesota's offense ranked 19th of 28 for the week, and over eight weeks it ranks 29th.
The record carries most of the weight in the ruler, and Minnesota's is 6-1. All seven teams that were 6-1 after Week 8 in the last ten seasons reached the playoffs, and six-win teams as a group made it 49 times in 53. Issue 12 called the offense the worry, and the ruler says why. Six-win teams with an offense in the top half made it 46 times in 47 and won 67% of their remaining games. Six-win teams with a bottom-half offense made it 3 times in 6 and won 48%. And among all 53 six-win teams since 2016, the lowest-ranked offense was 23rd: the 2023 Jaguars, who went 3-6 the rest of the way and missed.
Minnesota's defense still ranks first, at -0.17 per play. Defense is the half of a team that carries less well. The Vikings host Buffalo on Monday night.
Denver and Pittsburgh won again with bottom-half offenses. That kind of six-win team has made it half the time.
Denver trailed Kansas City 24-13 entering the fourth quarter. Bo Nix found Nate Adkins for a 2-yard touchdown on fourth-and-2, and a two-point throw to Jaylen Waddle made it 24-21 with 8:55 left. Kansas City drove to the Denver 30 and stalled; on fourth-and-8 Harrison Butker missed from 54. On the next snap, first-and-10 from his own 44 with 2:31 left, Nix threw short right to Jonah Coleman, who went 51 yards to the Kansas City 5. Coleman ran it in from there.
Kansas City got the ball back with 1:56 left and reached first-and-goal at the 4. Kenneth Walker III ran to the 1, Patrick Mahomes threw incomplete, and Walker was stopped for no gain on third-and-1. A false start moved the fourth-down snap back to the 6, and Malcolm Roach sacked Mahomes at the 12 as time ran out.
Issue 12 called "Kansas City's offense is in trouble" noise, and the offense agreed. Mahomes went 30 of 41 for 321 yards and three touchdowns without an interception, and Kansas City ranked fifth of 28 on offense for the week. It lost anyway. At 5-2 it ranks third in net EPA.
Pittsburgh's win was never close. It beat Cleveland 27-6 and sacked Deshaun Watson eight times, two by T.J. Watt. Jaylen Warren ran 17 times for 143 yards, and the run that set the tone came in the first quarter: third-and-13 at the Pittsburgh 24, up 7-0, Warren went up the middle for 51 yards to the Cleveland 25. Pittsburgh's net EPA was third of 28 for the week.
Both teams are 6-2, and both have won four straight. Their offenses rank 20th (Denver) and 21st (Pittsburgh); with Minnesota, that makes three of this season's six six-win teams with a bottom-half offense. The previous ten seasons produced six such teams in all. Three reached the playoffs. The three that missed were the 2016 Broncos, who went 3-5 afterwards; the 2023 Jaguars, 3-6; and last season's Buccaneers, 2-7. Six teams is a small group, so read it as a lean, not a law.
The two are not in the same place within it. Pittsburgh has the sixth-ranked defense, ranks 12th in net EPA and has outscored opponents by 36. Denver ranks 13th on defense and 19th in net EPA, has outscored opponents by 7, and has won 1.8 games more than its points scored and allowed predict, second-most in the league. Wins already won stay won: the two six-win teams in ten seasons ranked 17th or worse in net EPA, the 2022 Vikings and Giants, both made it. But Denver's place in the race comes from the standings more than the play.
Cleveland's 27-6 is the loss Issue 12 warned about. A 5-3 record still gets in four times in five.
Cleveland's offense could not get its passing game to the end zone, and it had no run game at all. Watson went 27 of 39 for 324 yards without a touchdown, and Harold Fannin Jr. caught 10 passes for 154. The Browns ran 15 times for 34 yards, lost two fumbles and scored on two Andre Szmyt field goals. Their best chance at a touchdown came down 27-6 early in the fourth quarter: a 37-yard throw to Fannin on third-and-4 reached the Pittsburgh 2, and four snaps later, on fourth-and-5 from the 5, Watson threw incomplete.
Issue 12 said of Cleveland: believe the standings, not the team. Sunday was the team. The Browns are 5-3, 25th in net EPA and 25th on offense, and they have been outscored by 34. No five-win team after Week 8 in the last ten seasons had a point differential that low; the nearest were the 2020 Browns at -31 and the 2016 Texans at -30, and both reached the playoffs. Cleveland has won 2.0 games more than its points predict, and four teams in ten seasons were further ahead at this stage. Three of the four made it.
The standings still say more than the play. Teams that were 5-3 after Week 8 reached the playoffs 19 times in 24. The four 5-3 teams ranked 17th or worse in net EPA did it twice. That makes Cleveland roughly a coin flip with the record on its side, in a division where Pittsburgh is 6-2. It visits New Orleans next.
Tampa Bay won without completing a pass. At 3-5, it is the kind of team that gets back in.
Tampa Bay beat Atlanta 16-0 in the rain on 56 carries for 324 yards, and Baker Mayfield threw three passes, all incomplete. Bucky Irving ran 27 times for 170 yards and Kenny Gainwell 25 times for 140. In ten seasons of play-by-play, no team had played a regular-season game without a completion; the fewest was one.
The defense did the rest. It intercepted Michael Penix Jr. four times, two by Alex Anzalone in the first quarter, and Atlanta went 0 for 12 on third down. Up 16-0 early in the fourth, second-and-6 at the Tampa Bay 24, Penix threw short right and Zyon McCollum intercepted at the 14. Tampa Bay's defense was first of 28 for the week at -0.52 EPA allowed per play.
The offense is a coaching point. All those rushing yards ranked it 22nd of 28 for the week, because one snap undid a lot of them. Up 3-0 in the first quarter, on second-and-7 at the Atlanta 15, Mayfield fumbled, picked it up and pitched to Irving, and Irving fumbled at the 1 and out of the end zone for a touchback: -5.2 EPA on one play. The 55 runs that count toward EPA added -3.6 in all.
Over two weeks Tampa Bay has won 43-13 and 16-0. Issue 12 called that turn "leaning real," and the ruler still does. The Buccaneers are 3-5 with a point differential of +27, the second-ranked defense, the 27th-ranked offense and the tenth-ranked net EPA. They have won 1.8 fewer games than their points predict, the furthest behind in the league. Teams that were 3-5 after Week 8 made the playoffs 4 times in 32. The seven that ranked in the top half by net EPA made it three times and won 55% of their remaining games; the other 25 made it once. One of the three was the 2022 Buccaneers. Tampa Bay visits Chicago next.
The Chargers are 0-7 and Philadelphia has lost six straight. After Week 8, those doors have closed every time.
The Chargers lost 24-9 to the Rams on three Cameron Dicker field goals. Justin Herbert threw two interceptions and both became Rams points. In the first quarter, on third-and-5 from the Rams' 38, Quentin Lake intercepted and returned it 45 yards to the Chargers' 19, which set up a field goal. In the third, down 17-9, Tre McDuffie intercepted at the Chargers' 48 and returned it to the 22, and two plays later Matthew Stafford threw an 18-yard touchdown to Puka Nacua. On the last play of the first half, Herbert found Ladd McConkey for 54 yards, and McConkey was brought down at the 1 as time ran out.
The Chargers have not scored a touchdown since Week 5, and they have scored 99 points in seven games. Their offense is last at -0.26 EPA per play; four offenses in ten seasons were worse after Week 8, and none of their teams made the playoffs. The defense ranks ninth. Seven teams were winless after Week 8 from 2016 to 2025, and none reached the playoffs; widen it to one win or fewer and it is 0 of 30. Tennessee, 1-7 after the overtime loss in Cincinnati, and Miami, 1-6, are in that group too.
Philadelphia led Washington 10-0 in the first quarter, on a Jake Elliott field goal and Saquon Barkley's 3-yard touchdown after Washington fumbled. Washington scored the last 27 points. Tanner McKee went 23 of 34 for 212 yards with an interception and was sacked five times, and Philadelphia ran 29 times for 91 yards.
Philadelphia is 2-6 and last in net EPA at -0.23 per play. Ten teams in ten seasons were last in net EPA after Week 8, and none made the playoffs. Of the 26 teams that were 2-6, one did: the 2022 Jaguars, who ranked eighth in net EPA. Philadelphia hosts the Giants next.
Real or Noise
The verdicts, calibrated at the halfway point. These grade the story, not the team.
- "Minnesota's first loss is the start of a slide": noise for the standings, real for the offense. 6-1 teams made the playoffs 7 times in 7. But no six-win team in ten seasons had an offense ranked below 23rd, and Minnesota's is 29th.
- "Denver is a contender": the record, yes; the team, not yet. Six-win teams with bottom-half offenses made it 3 times in 6. Denver ranks 19th in net EPA and has won 1.8 games more than its points predict.
- "Cleveland is a playoff team": a coin flip with the record on its side. 5-3 teams made it 19 times in 24, but the four ranked 17th or worse in net EPA made it twice, and no five-win team in ten seasons had been outscored by 34.
- "Tampa Bay is back in it": leaning real. 3-5 teams in the top half of net EPA made it 3 times in 7 and won 55% of the rest. Tampa Bay is 10th, and it has allowed 13 points in two weeks.
- "The Chargers can still turn it around": noise. Teams with one win or fewer after Week 8 are 0 for 30, and the Chargers' offense is last by a long way.
The Receipts
Verified numbers worth keeping in your pocket.
- After Week 8, teams with one win or fewer reached the playoffs 0 times in 30; teams with six or more, 49 times in 53. 2016-2025.
- Six-win teams with a top-half offense made it 46 times in 47; six-win teams with a bottom-half offense, 3 times in 6. This season has three of the second kind: Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Denver.
- Tampa Bay beat Atlanta 16-0 without a completion, on 56 carries for 324 yards. No team had played a regular-season game without one since at least 2016.
Read more
- Minnesota's first loss, Kyler Murray, Detroit's side and Jahmyr Gibbs
- Denver's comeback, Bo Nix, Jonah Coleman, Kansas City's side and Patrick Mahomes
- Pittsburgh's eight sacks, Jaylen Warren, Cleveland's side, Deshaun Watson and Harold Fannin Jr.
- Tampa Bay's shutout, Bucky Irving, Atlanta's side and Michael Penix Jr.
- The Chargers against the Rams, Justin Herbert, the Rams' side and Puka Nacua
- Philadelphia in Washington, Washington's side and Jayden Daniels
- Jacksonville's 42-7 and Buffalo's 36-10
- The boards behind this issue: team EPA and quarterback EPA
- Last week's issue: How much should one game change your mind?
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Next week: Jacksonville visits Baltimore on Thursday, Tampa Bay visits Chicago, Denver visits Carolina, Cleveland visits New Orleans, the Giants visit Philadelphia, Houston visits the Chargers, and Buffalo visits Minnesota on Monday night; Pittsburgh and Tennessee have byes.
Methodology: Week 8 of 2026 is the 14 games from Thursday, October 29 through Monday, November 2; Houston, New Orleans, San Francisco and the Giants had byes, and they, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Detroit, Kansas City, Minnesota, Miami, the Chargers, Carolina and Washington have played seven games, everyone else eight. Team offense and defense are EPA per play on regular-season plays whose type is a pass or a run (scrambles included, penalty no-plays excluded), offense as the possession team and defense as EPA allowed; net EPA is offense minus defense. Season ranks are among all 32 teams over Weeks 1-8 together; a rank "for the week" is among the 28 teams that played in Week 8, and a run-defense figure is the same measure on run plays only. Records, scores and point differentials are from nflverse's schedule file; a one-score game is decided by eight points or fewer. Expected wins are the Pythagorean expectation, points scored to the 2.37 power over the sum of points scored and allowed each to the 2.37 power, times games played; wins ahead of or behind the points are actual wins, ties as half, minus that. The ruler is 2016-2025, 320 team-seasons: each team's record, point differential and per-play offense, defense and net EPA over all its regular-season games in Weeks 1-8 (seven or eight games, depending on its bye), ranked among the 32 teams of its season, against its record from Week 9 on and whether it played a postseason game. Seasons before 2020 had 16 games and 12 playoff teams, later ones 17 and 14, and the rates pool them. Correlations are Pearson, across the 320 team-seasons, with the rest-of-season win rate or, for offense and defense, with the same measure from Week 9 on. "Top half" is a rank of 1 to 16. Completions are counted from play-by-play for every regular-season team-game from 2016. Player lines are nflverse's weekly player stats; plays are retold from nflverse play-by-play. No charting figures are used this week. Data via nflverse.