Chiefs 24, Broncos 28 — Week 8: First and Goal at the 4, No Points

Kansas City lost 28-24 at Denver on Sunday, seven weeks after beating the Broncos 31-10, and fell to 5-2 with its second straight loss. The Chiefs led 24-13 entering the fourth quarter, and their win probability, the model's estimate of each side's chance to win, peaked at 92.3% early in it. Denver scored 15 points from there, Harrison Butker missed from 54, and the last drive reached first and goal at the 4 before ending on a sack at the 12. 11 drives produced 3 touchdowns, Butker's 45-yard field goal, 3 three-and-outs and that final turnover on downs. Neither side turned the ball over.

The passing game got back above its standard, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures the rebound: 43 pass plays worth +10.8 EPA, +0.25 a play against +0.119 through Week 7, with 51% of them successful plays. Patrick Mahomes completed 30 of 41 for 321 yards and 3 touchdowns without an interception, and was sacked twice. Up 7-6 midway through the second, third and 10 at the Kansas City 27, he threw short left to Emmett Johnson, who caught it 10 yards past the line and ran the other 63 for a touchdown, +7.0 EPA and 24.1 points of win probability. Johnson caught all 5 of his targets for 128 yards. Rashee Rice caught 7 of 8 for 53 and an 11-yard score, Travis Kelce 5 of 7 for 67, and Noah Gray caught a 4-yard touchdown after Cyrus Allen's 12-yarder on third and 12.

The run game fell well short of its standard, and the yardage shows it: 90 yards on 24 rush plays, 3.8 a carry, and no touchdowns, worth +0.006 EPA a play against +0.125 through Week 7. Kenneth Walker, who ran for 173 yards against Denver in Week 1, ran 21 times for 69, -0.04 EPA a carry against +0.10 through Week 7. He converted two third-and-1 carries in the fourth quarter but not the third and goal from the 1 at the end. Johnson's one run went 15 yards.

The pass defense gave up far more than usual, and EPA per play allowed tells it: Denver's 33 pass plays were worth +0.19 a play against -0.039 allowed through Week 7. On defense a positive number is bad. Only 39% of them succeeded, so the damage came in chunks: Jaylen Waddle's 35-yarder on second and 18 and Jonah Coleman's 51-yarder with 2:31 left. Three 15-yard penalties, an unnecessary roughness on Jack Cochrane, a face mask on Drue Tranquill and an unnecessary roughness on Alohi Gilman, each came on a Denver scoring drive. George Karlaftis had the only sack, and Denver converted 2 of 11 third downs.

The run defense stayed close to its standard, and success rate allowed tells it: 10 of Denver's 22 rush plays, 45.5%, succeeded, for 78 yards, worth -0.05 a play against -0.085 allowed through Week 7; here a negative number is good. J.K. Dobbins ran 7 times for 13. Late in the half, with first and goal at the 1, Tranquill, Nick Bolton and Gilman stopped three straight runs for no gain before Bo Nix threw the touchdown on fourth down.

The game turned with 2:44 left. Up 24-21 after a 10-play drive to the Denver 30, Mahomes was sacked by Alex Singleton for 6 on third and 2, and Butker's 54-yard try went wide right, -2.7 EPA and 16.7 points of win probability. On the next snap Nix threw short right to Coleman, who caught it a yard past the line and ran to the Kansas City 5, and Coleman scored from there. Johnson's 44-yard kickoff return and Kelce's 32-yard catch to the Denver 18 put the Chiefs in range, and Walker's 8-yard catch made it first and goal at the 4. Walker ran for 3, a pass fell incomplete, and JL Skinner stopped Walker at the 1 on third down with 9 seconds left. A false start on Jaylon Moore made it fourth and goal from the 6, and Malcolm Roach sacked Mahomes at the 12 on the last snap, 37.5 points of win probability, the game's largest swing.

Last week's notebook asked whether play-action would come back, and whether a passing game at -0.18 a play against Seattle would get back to its standard. Play-action waits for the charting. The passing game answered: +0.25 a play. The one to watch next: whether a run game at +0.006 a play here, against +0.125 through Week 7, finds room again for Walker.

That's your Chiefs, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Chiefs on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._