Rashee Rice (WR, Kansas City Chiefs) — 2026 fantasy outlook, updated Jun 13, 2026.
In 2025, Rashee Rice finished WR41 at 15.5 Half-PPR points per game (123.6 total) across 8 games.
Muffed's 2026 take on Rashee Rice: WR5 per game on 8 games with Mahomes; the short sample and an open off-field file are the bet.
Based on verified 2025 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring.
WR5 per game on 8 games with Mahomes; the short sample and an open off-field file are the bet.
When Rashee Rice's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
Rashee Rice Camp Update — August 31: A Full Preseason Without a Snap
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2025: 53 catches for 571 yards, 5 TDs on 78 targets; 20 rushing yards, 1 rushing TDs (8 games)
Where he ranks — 2025
Compared with
Side-by-side verified 2025 production, and which side rests on inputs that repeat.
Chiefs backfield and handcuffs — the depth chart behind him, refreshed daily.
More episodes
- Camp · Aug 23, 2026
Rashee Rice Camp Update — August 23: Expected to Play, Held Out Again
The pregame reporting had Rice in line for his first preseason snaps; instead he dressed and watched a second straight game. He practiced through camp's close, which keeps this filed under caution rather than concern — for one more week.
- Camp · Aug 16, 2026
Rashee Rice Camp Update — August 16: Full Go, Heavy Targets, League Still Quiet
Rice looked like a full participant Thursday, drawing heavy targeting in rhythm with Mahomes over the middle. The football half of his profile is confirming; the legal half stayed quiet, which is the one thing camp cannot resolve.
- 2026 Preview
Rashee Rice 2026 Season Preview — a WR5 rate, an 8-game sample
WATCHLIST — WR5 per game on 8 games with Mahomes; the short sample and an open off-field file are the bet.
Show notes & transcript
On a per-game basis, Rashee Rice was the fifth-best receiver in football last season. He's the thirteenth receiver off the board. That gap looks like a screaming buy — until you remember he played eight games, and why. The Muffed 2026 preview on the highest-variance pick in this batch.
The eight games he played were excellent: 15-four points a game — fifth-best at the position among players with at least six games — on a 29 percent target share, ahead of even Travis Kelce in per-game usage when he returned. 53 catches, nearly 600 yards, six total touchdowns, 414 yards after the catch. The signature was a two-touchdown day against Dallas, including a fourth-and-three red-zone score from Mahomes. And it wasn't boom-or-bust — 18-plus points in five of his eight games. Real floor, elite quarterback, alpha usage.
The arc is a player on a steep rise, interrupted: 10-eight as a rookie, then a four-game 2024, then the 15-four rate. Every time he's been on the field with Mahomes, the production has climbed. The talent and the role are not in question.
What the data says, and where the caution comes from: the volume — nearly 10 targets a game — is exactly the sticky profile that carries over, and his touchdown share is moderate, so there's no luck to fade. By production, he's a clear top-12, arguably top-eight, receiver. But our injury-and-availability pattern is blunt about short samples: a player coming off a sub-10-game season carries real risk of another, and the reason for the missed time matters.
The situation, per the reports, has moved since the spring: the underlying case is the March 2024 Dallas crash, where Rice pleaded guilty last summer to two felony counts and was sentenced to probation, 30 days of jail as a condition, and restitution; the NFL's six-game suspension for that crash was already served in 2025. Two new items surfaced since: he tested positive for THC, a violation of his probation, and served 30 days in jail from mid-May to mid-June this year to satisfy that previously-suspended term — which cost him the Chiefs' OTAs and mandatory minicamp. Separately, a former girlfriend's civil suit alleging assault remains active; the NFL investigated the same allegations and closed its personal-conduct review in April without discipline, "insufficient evidence," but the civil case itself hasn't resolved. No suspension has been announced over the probation violation as of this writing — it's an open question, not a decided one. On the field, it's all upside: 2026 would be the first time Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Marquise Brown are all healthy together, giving Mahomes a full arsenal, and Kansas City made no outside addition at receiver this offseason, betting on Rice as the guy.
The price: pick 31, the thirteenth receiver. Verdict: WATCHLIST — the per-game production says buy two rounds early; the missed offseason program and the still-open legal threads say demand the discount. The counter in his favor: he's a 20-something alpha catching from the best quarterback alive, and if he plays 16 games he laps this price. The counter against: "if he plays 16" is carrying the entire bet, and the downside isn't a hamstring — it's a legal process we can't see the end of.
September watch: any league or court news first and foremost — that resolves the entire range of outcomes; then the target share in a now-healthy Chiefs receiver room once he's back on the field. If he's one of your guys, this show exists for your whole roster — every player, every week, all season.
- 2025 Review
Rashee Rice 2025 Season in Review
Show notes & transcript
Rashee Rice finished 2025 as the number 40 wide receiver in total PPR scoring — but here's the number that matters for draft prep: he was the number 5 wide receiver in PPR per game among players who suited up at least six times. That gap tells you everything in one sentence. When he played, he was a force. He only played eight games. The six-game suspension capped his ceiling before Week 1, and by the time he returned, the Chiefs were a 6-and-11 team searching for an identity. Rice didn't just slot back in — he became the focal point of the passing game almost immediately, ahead of Travis Kelce in per-game usage and ahead of everybody else in target volume. The headline is simple: Rice played like a top-five fantasy wide receiver on a per-game basis, on a team that missed the playoffs.
Now let's dig into the numbers, because they explain that per-game ranking cleanly. Across eight games, Rice caught 53 balls for 571 yards and 5 receiving touchdowns on 78 targets, plus a rushing touchdown on a goal-line direct snap. His average target share was 29 percent — a true alpha number, the kind of usage you see from a clear number-one option, not a complementary piece. He racked up 414 yards after the catch, the engine of his fantasy profile: short, schemed touches that turn into chunks. And the consistency held up. Rice averaged 18.8 PPR per game with a real floor — he cleared 18 points five times in eight games, hit 23-+3 times, and his two lowest outputs were a 9.8 against the Broncos and a 7.4 against the Texans, both losses where the entire Kansas City offense got muffed. Steady floor, genuine ceiling spikes — not boom-or-bust. On a passing attack that produced just plus 24.9 expected points added on 634 attempts, Rice was the reason that number wasn't worse.
The single play that captures Rice's season: fourth-and-3 from the Dallas 3-yard line, fourth quarter, Chiefs down 20 to 14. Mahomes took the shotgun snap and went short left to Rice for the touchdown — a 4th-down conversion, a red-zone score, and the exact high-leverage target that defined what Rice was to this offense when healthy. He finished that Dallas game with 8 catches for 92 yards and 2 touchdowns in a loss. That's the season in a single snap: target hog, red-zone go-to, doing his job even when the team around him couldn't finish.
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