Bills 36, Ravens 10 — Week 8: Three Quarterbacks, 91 Yards

Buffalo beat Baltimore 36-10 at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, its first game since the Week 7 bye, and went to 6-1. The 26-point margin was the Bills' largest of the season and the 10 points the fewest they have allowed. Baltimore used three quarterbacks after Lamar Jackson was injured on the Ravens' first snap. 13 drives produced four touchdowns, three Tyler Bass field goals and two giveaways; the defense took the ball away three times.

The passing game gave the ball away before halftime and put the game away after it, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, splits it cleanly: 19 pass plays before the break worth -9.8, 16 after it worth +12.7. For the game: +2.8 on 35 pass plays, +0.08 a play against +0.26 through Week 7. Josh Allen completed 21 of 34 for 289 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. In the first quarter, at his own 16, defensive tackle Broderick Washington intercepted a short throw for Jackson Hawes, -5.5 EPA, and Derrick Henry scored two runs later. Up 23-10 early in the fourth, first and 20 at his own 47, Allen went deep left to Dalton Kincaid for 40 yards to the Baltimore 13. Three snaps later, third and 8 at the 11, he threw short left to DJ Moore for the touchdown, +3.2 EPA. Kincaid finished with 86 yards and a 23-yard touchdown, Moore with 82 and Khalil Shakir with 64.

The run game moved the chains without adding value, and success rate is where it looked good: 51.3% of 39 rush plays were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, for 148 yards and two touchdowns. EPA says otherwise: +0.2 in all, +0.00 a play against +0.16 through Week 7. James Cook ran 21 times for 80 yards and scored from the 5 on second and 5. Allen ran 7 times for 30 and the opening touchdown, a yard up the middle on fourth and 1 after he was stopped on third and 1. The leak was at the goal line: in the second quarter, from first and goal at the 3, three runs lost a yard, the last Allen's 3-yard loss on third and 1, -2.8 EPA. Bass kicked from 22.

The pass defense Smashed, and total EPA allowed says by how much: Baltimore's 30 pass plays were worth -20.2, -0.67 a play against +0.22 allowed through Week 7, the Bills' best game this season by that measure. On defense a negative number is good. Only 26.7% of those plays succeeded, for 91 passing yards. Tyler Huntley went 2 of 4 for 0 yards and Joe Fagnano 10 of 21 for 91 with an interception. Cole Bishop, Landon Jackson, TJ Parker and Greg Rousseau had a sack each. Bishop's came up 10-7 early in the second quarter, on third and 8 at the Baltimore 40: he sacked Huntley and forced a fumble that Kaleb Elarms-Orr recovered at the 20, -5.2 EPA and 9.6 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. The defense stopped 10 of 13 third downs.

The run defense came out ahead on one snap, and EPA per play allowed shows it: Baltimore's 18 rush plays were worth -3.6, -0.20 a play against -0.01 allowed through Week 7; negative is good here too. Third and 1 at the Buffalo 48 with 2:38 left, Fagnano lost the snap and Dorian Williams recovered, -3.8 EPA. The other 17 came to +0.2, and 44.4% of all 18 succeeded, for 77 yards. Henry ran 11 times for 53 and scored from the 2 after the interception. His 10-yard touchdown in the third came back on a holding penalty, and Baltimore settled for a 26-yard field goal.

The game turned in the last two minutes of the first half. Up 13-7 with 2:00 left, Moore caught an 18-yarder at the Baltimore 21, and replay ruled he fumbled before he was down: Roquan Smith forced it and T.J. Tampa recovered at the 18, -3.3 EPA and 8.3 points of win probability. On Baltimore's fourth play, first and 5 at its own 35 with 1:21 left, Fagnano threw short left for Zay Flowers, and Davison Igbinosun intercepted at midfield and returned it 17 yards to the 33: 15.7 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Bass's 51-yarder made it 16-7 at the half. After Baltimore's field goal opened the third, Moore's 49-yard catch deep over the middle reached the 5, and Cook scored two snaps later for 23-10.

Before the bye, the Week 6 notebook asked whether a run game at -0.01 a play would get back to its own level, and whether the pass defense would find more third-down stops than the 5 of 12 it managed against the Raiders. The run game has not; the third downs came back, 10 stops in 13. The one to watch next: whether a run game that succeeded on 51.3% of its plays starts adding value again, against its season rate of +0.16 a play.

That's your Bills, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Bills on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._