Kyler Murray — Week 8: Two Touchdowns, First Loss

Kyler Murray threw two touchdown passes against the Lions for the first time this season and took his first loss: 17 of 29 for 210 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, sacked three times, plus 36 yards on three runs. Over 33 dropbacks, the two-point try set aside, he was worth -1.5 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position, -0.04 per dropback. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was -1.9.

The throw that defined his day came down 12-7 with 10:16 left. First and 10 at the Minnesota 39, he went deep middle to Jordan Addison for 51 yards to the Detroit 10: +3.0 EPA and 15.9 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. Two snaps later, second and 8 at the 8, he threw short middle to T.J. Hockenson for the touchdown, +2.2 EPA and 11.0 points, then hit Addison on the two-point try for 15-12. His first touchdown was a 1-yard throw to Justin Jefferson to open the second quarter.

Three throws for Addison cost him. Up 7-3 with 1:51 left in the half, one snap after his 22-yard scramble to his own 47, D.J. Reed intercepted a short throw at the Detroit 38, -3.9 EPA. Down 12-7 on the first snap of the fourth, fourth and 5 at the Detroit 25, Reed broke up a short throw as Aidan Hutchinson hit him, -3.6 EPA and 8.6 points. Down 19-15 with 3:06 left, third and 5 at his own 33, his deep throw to the left fell incomplete, -1.3 EPA and 6.1 points, and Minnesota never got the ball back. Two of the sacks came on one third-quarter drive, for 7 and 9 yards.

It was close to his season rate. Through Week 7 he had -7.9 EPA on 151 dropbacks, -0.05 per dropback, a CPOE of +2.9, 3 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions.

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_Data via nflverse._