Michael Penix — Week 8: Four Interceptions in the Rain

Michael Penix Jr. threw four interceptions against the Buccaneers, three more than in his first five games combined: 8 of 24 for 125 yards and no touchdowns in a 16-0 loss at Tampa Bay in the rain. Over 25 dropbacks he was worth -20.8 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position, -0.83 a dropback. Completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was -31.3.

The throw that defined his day came down 3-0 with 7:35 left in the first quarter. First and 10 at the Atlanta 34, he threw short right for Drake London and Alex Anzalone intercepted at the 41; London's unnecessary-roughness penalty on the return put Tampa Bay at the 18. It cost -6.4 EPA and 14.1 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. On Atlanta's next series, third and 10 at the Atlanta 20, Anzalone intercepted him again, short over the middle for Jahan Dotson, and Tampa Bay kicked a field goal for 6-0.

The other two ended drives in Tampa Bay territory. On fourth and 6 at the Tampa Bay 32 in the second quarter, Jacob Parrish picked off a throw for London. Early in the fourth, second and 6 at the 24, Zyon McCollum intercepted a throw for Charlie Woerner at the 14, -4.4 EPA. His best throw came with the game gone: down 16-0 from the Atlanta 2 with 4:35 left, he went deep left to Dotson for 76 yards, and the drive died on three incompletions from the 14.

His legs were worth more than his arm. He ran 5 times for 11 yards and +6.1 EPA, converting three fourth downs, two up the middle on fourth and 1 and a 7-yard scramble on fourth and 4.

Against his season it was a reversal. Through Week 7 he had completed 96 of 144 for 1,157 yards, nine touchdowns and one interception, at +0.15 a dropback and a CPOE of +0.1.

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_Data via nflverse._