Where he ranks — 2026
Bijan Robinson by situation
Bijan Robinson averages 5.8 yards per carry against a light box of six or fewer, 6th of 48 qualified running backs.
Light box (6 or fewer)
Stacked box (8 or more)
vs the blitz
On play-action
With motion
QB out of pocket
Catchable targets
Contested targets
Compared with
Side-by-side verified figures, and which side rests on inputs that repeat.
Falcons backfield and handcuffs — the depth chart behind him, refreshed daily.
Bijan Robinson — Week 7: 20 Carries, 5 Catches
Robinson ran 20 times for 63 yards and caught all 5 of his targets for 59 yards against the 49ers, in Atlanta's 29-20 win at home.
More episodes
- Week 6
Bijan Robinson — Week 6: Nine Carries, 61 Yards
Robinson ran 9 times for 61 yards and caught 2 passes for -8 yards against the Bears, in Atlanta's 31-23 loss at home.
- Week 5
Bijan Robinson — Week 5: 86 Yards, One 38-Yard Burst
Robinson ran 17 times for 86 yards and caught 4 of 7 targets for 32 yards against the Ravens, but two runs carried most of his day in a 30-23 overtime loss in Atlanta.
- Week 4
Bijan Robinson — Week 4: 59 Yards on the Third Snap
Robinson ran 19 times for 145 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Saints, opening with a 59-yard touchdown on Atlanta's third snap, in a 45-24 win in New Orleans.
- Week 3
Bijan Robinson — Week 3: Twenty-Nine Carries, Two Touchdowns
Robinson carried a career-high 29 times for 194 yards and two touchdowns, 11 first downs and 19 successful runs, with a 55-yard run to the Green Bay 5 that set up his first score, and caught both targets for 19. Atlanta ran 39 times to 25 pass plays, and 29 of the 39 went to him, in a 35–14 win over the Packers.
- Week 2
Bijan Robinson — Week 2: Nineteen Touches, None in the Fourth
Robinson carried 16 times for 72 yards and caught three of four targets for 9; the fourth target was intercepted on third and five in the first quarter. Twelve of the 16 carries came before halftime, and he did not touch the ball in the fourth quarter, when Brian Robinson took all five running-back carries, in a 34–3 loss to the Panthers.
- Week 1
Bijan Robinson — Week 1: Twenty-Nine Touches, and Watt's Pick-Six
Robinson touched the ball twenty-nine times Sunday — twenty-one carries for eighty-three yards and eight catches on ten targets for ninety and the Falcons' only touchdown — and the throw that decided the game was meant for him: second and ten at the Atlanta forty-four, T.J. Watt intercepted it and ran thirty-five yards the other way. Atlanta lost 20–13 to the Steelers.
- Camp · Aug 31, 2026
Bijan Robinson Camp Update — August 31: The backfield is down to two
Atlanta's cutdown left only two running backs on the roster, Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson Junior, per Pro Football Rumors. The first observed goal-line carry of the new offense went to the other Robinson, and the finale reporting never places Bijan on the field at all.
- Camp · Aug 23, 2026
Bijan Robinson Camp Update — August 23: The first four touches went to him
When Atlanta opened eleven-on-eleven work against the Colts, the first four touches all went to Bijan Robinson, including a one-handed catch on a bubble route. The ramp-up is over, and the new offense's first live look opened by feeding its best player on the ground and through the air.
- Camp · Aug 16, 2026
Bijan Robinson Camp Update — August 16: Held Out and Ramping, by Design
Bijan Robinson dressed for the Denver game and never took a snap, described by the team as still ramping up. Quiet week, and for a back with his workload, quiet is the plan working.
- 2026 Preview
Bijan Robinson 2026 Season Preview — the touchdowns owe him money
Robinson finished as the RB3 with 19.5 half-PPR points per game across all 17 games, a season built on the kind of volume and role that tend to carry — he has been available for every game over a five-year stretch, a 100% availability rate that underpins everything. The per-game production was real and consistent, not a touchdown spike on thin usage.
Read the full preview ▾
Here's a sentence you've never heard about a number-two overall pick: the touchdowns owe HIM money. Bijan Robinson just finished as the RB3 in fantasy — 19.5 a game — while scoring 11 times on 366 touches. That's not a red flag. That's a rebate pending. The Muffed 2026 preview, in three acts.
Act one, the season. On an Atlanta offense that ranked 20-fourth in expected points added — bottom third of football — Robinson was the entire show: two 87 carries for 14 78 at five-two, +257 yards over expected, third-most in the league. Then the part that separates him: 79 catches for 820 yards on a 20 percent target share. The signature play was Week 17 against the Rams — first-and-10 from his own seven, right tackle, 93 yards to the house. Longest run of his season, nearly seven expected points on one snap, against the second-best offense in football's home crowd. He cleared 14 points in 13 of 17 games. Steady floor, real ceiling, broken surroundings.
Act two, the arc. 12-eight a game as a rookie. 18-three in year two. 19-five in year three — RB17 to RB4 to RB3, with the workload climbing to three 66 touches. Year-three backs with ascending volume and ascending efficiency are what the first round is for.
Act three, what repeats — and this is where his profile is quietly the safest in the top five. The two stickiest things a back can own: volume and receiving work. He has both, trending up. The thing that doesn't repeat — touchdown luck — is currently running against him: a 17.8 percent touchdown share, near the bottom for an elite back, seven rushing scores on 287 carries behind below-average quarterback play. Backs in the low-touchdown quartile barely fade at all — and the flip side of our touchdown rule is that starved scorers on elite volume tend to get fed eventually. We won't promise regression-to-the-mean money. We'll just note the direction the mean is.
The situation: it's loud, and we can't model any of it. Atlanta has a new head coach — Kevin Stefanski — Kirk Cousins is gone, and the quarterback room is an open competition: Michael Penix rehabbing the knee he tore in November, with the June practice reports putting his return window anywhere from camp to mid-season, and Tua Tagovailoa signed after his Miami release to compete, with Stefanski publicly splitting the reps. Quarterback chaos, again — except Robinson just proved he produces RB3 numbers through exactly that. One more reported wrinkle: Schefter says an extension is expected this offseason — money news, not usage news. The honest read: a functional offense raises his touchdown count; more chaos keeps him at... RB3, apparently.
The price: one-seven, the second pick. Verdict: NO CALL. He's priced second among backs and he finished a hair behind that, third — the market got it right, and unlike most number-two picks, his downside case already happened last year and it scored 19-five a game. The counter, said straight: a back who needs positive touchdown variance to beat his draft slot has less surplus upside than the lightning being drafted one spot ahead, and the QB room is genuinely murky.
Watch in September: the goal-line work — if the new staff feeds him inside the five, the rebate arrives early. And the target share — 20 percent is elite for a back; under a new coach it's the first thing to check. Your whole roster gets this treatment every week — that's the show.
- 2025 Review
Bijan Robinson 2025 Season in Review
Read the full review ▾
Bijan Robinson finished the 2025 season as the number 2 running back in total PPR scoring and the number 2 running back in PPR per game. That's the headline — and it's not a fluke of volume or efficiency. It's both. Robinson was the engine of an Atlanta offense that finished 8 and 9, ranked 24th in total offensive expected points added, and got below-average quarterback play from both Michael Penix Junior and Kirk Cousins. He still cleared 1,478 rushing yards, caught 79 balls, and scored 11 total touchdowns. When the offense around him sputtered, Robinson was the one thing that kept working.
Now let's dig into the numbers. Robinson handled 287 carries and 103 targets in 17 games — a true bell-cow workload, the kind of dual-threat usage that mints elite fantasy seasons. He averaged 5.2 yards per carry and added plus 257.1 rushing yards over expected, seventh among qualified runners at plus 0.9 per attempt. Translation: he wasn't just being fed volume — he was creating yards the blocking didn't give him. The receiving line is where this profile separates from every other workhorse: 79 catches, 820 receiving yards, 4 receiving touchdowns, on a 20 percent target share. He averaged 21.8 PPR points per game, and the consistency held — he cleared 14 PPR points in 13 of his 17 games, with five games above 29 and only two real duds, the Miami blowout in Week 8 and the Week 18 finale against New Orleans. Steady floor, genuine ceiling. Not boom-or-bust.
The defining moment came in Week 17 against the Rams. First quarter, Atlanta up 14 to nothing, first and 10 from their own 7. Robinson took the handoff right tackle and broke it for a 93-yard touchdown — the longest play of his season, worth plus 6.7 expected points added on a single snap. That run captured the whole year: a workhorse back on a middling offense who could turn one touch into a game by himself. In a season where Atlanta's quarterbacks combined for negative completion percentage over expected and the team finished below average in offensive expected points added, Robinson was the reason this offense had a pulse at all.
From The Muffed Read
- Which records are telling the truth? Minnesota's 5-0 with the 28th-ranked offense, San Francisco's win in Seattle, Houston's first win, Atlanta's fifth game and the ten 3-2 teams, run through a ruler built for five games.
At five games, a team's record, its point differential and how well it plays snap to snap predict the rest of its season about equally well. When they disagree, believe the play: 3-2 teams ranked top ten by net EPA per play reached the playoffs 25 times in 39 over the last ten seasons, and 3-2 teams in the bottom half 12 times in 33.
- Which first-month signals are real? San Francisco's offense, Atlanta's run game, Minnesota's blitz, the five 0-4 teams and Jaxon Smith-Njigba's targets, run through a ruler built for four games.
Four games in, how a team plays repeats far better than how well it plays: blitz rate, run-pass lean and target share all carry into the rest of the season at 0.51 or better, defensive results at 0.29 and touchdowns at 0.19. And no 0-4 team in ten seasons has reached the playoffs; this season has five.
- Is "injury-prone" real? Five NFL seasons of who actually takes the field.
Christian McCaffrey's last five seasons: 7, 17, 16, 4, 17 games. Availability is the least repeatable thing we measure about a player — except in one group, where it runs an honest coin flip.
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