Chargers 9, Rams 24 — Week 8: Three Kicks, Two Picks

The Chargers lost 24-9 to the Rams at SoFi Stadium on Sunday, coming off their bye, and fell to 0-7. They led 9-3 with 1:55 left in the first half on three Cameron Dicker field goals, from 34, 46 and 41 yards, and did not score again. It was their second straight game without a touchdown. 11 drives produced the three field goals, two interceptions, four punts, a turnover on downs and a half that ran out at the Rams 1.

The passing game moved the ball between its mistakes, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, shows where the value went: the two interceptions were worth -13.8 together, and the other 31 pass plays came to -2.4. In all, 33 pass plays were worth -16.2 EPA, -0.49 a play against -0.27 through Week 7, and 33.3% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Justin Herbert completed 24 of 32 for 257 yards and no touchdowns, and was sacked twice. Both interceptions were short throws to the right for Charlie Kolar. Tied 0-0, third and 5 at the Rams 38, Quentin Lake picked off the first at the 36 and returned it 45 yards to the Chargers 19: -7.1 EPA and 21.1 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Down 17-9 in the third, first and 10 at the Chargers 37, Trent McDuffie picked off the second at the 48 and returned it to the 22, -6.7 EPA; the Rams scored two plays later.

The run game was Muffed, and success rate says how often: 5 of 25 rush plays succeeded, 20%, the lowest in any Chargers game this season. They gained 64 yards and were worth -10.1 EPA, -0.40 a play against -0.17 through Week 7. Omarion Hampton ran 9 times for 20 yards, Kimani Vidal 8 times for 23 and Keaton Mitchell 4 times for 6. The two runs that cost the most turned touchdown chances into field goals: on third and 1 at the Rams 15, Hampton lost a yard, and on third and 3 at the 23, he gained nothing.

The pass defense held its end, and EPA per play allowed measures it: the Rams' 26 pass plays were worth -0.19 a play, against +0.004 allowed through Week 7. On defense a negative number is good. Matthew Stafford completed 17 of 25 for 157 yards, and the Rams converted 3 of 11 third downs. Tarheeb Still intercepted Stafford on the game's first possession, though the offense went three-and-out after it. Tuli Tuipulotu's 5-yard sack on second and 8 left third and 13 and a punt, and Isas Waxter stopped Puka Nacua for losses on third and 4 and third and 5. The leak came in the last two minutes of the half, when Tutu Atwell's 40-yard catch and Nacua's 13-yarder to the 1 set up the touchdown that put the Rams ahead.

The run defense gave ground when it mattered, and yards per play shows how much: 129 yards on 27 Rams rush plays, 4.8 a play, with two touchdowns. They were worth +1.1 EPA, +0.04 a play against -0.08 allowed through Week 7; here a positive number is bad. Blake Corum ran 11 times for 73 yards, 55 of them on five carries to open the third quarter, the last a 23-yard touchdown for 17-9. Down 24-9 with 6:39 left, the defense needed the ball back and never got it: Kyren Williams carried 11 times for 41 yards, converted third and 6 with a 6-yarder the Chargers challenged and lost, and ended the game with 2 yards on fourth and 1 at the Chargers 38.

The game turned on the last 1:55 of the first half. Up 9-3, the defense let the Rams go 66 yards in five plays for a 10-9 lead with 22 seconds left. A short-kickoff penalty handed the offense the ball at its 40, and after Quentin Johnston's 5-yard catch and a spike, Herbert threw deep right to Ladd McConkey on third and 5 with 4 seconds left. McConkey went 54 yards and was brought down at the Rams 1 as time expired, a yard from the lead. The Rams answered with a 74-yard touchdown drive to open the third, and the offense's deepest drive of the second half ended on fourth and 8 at the Rams 24, where Oronde Gadsden's 7-yard catch was spotted a yard short.

Before the bye, the notebook asked about the red zone, after 10 snaps inside the 20 at Kansas City produced no touchdowns, and a third-down rate of 5 of 16. This time the offense got 2 red-zone snaps, both runs on the same drive, and kicked a field goal; it converted 6 of 15 third downs. That makes two games and 15 points without a touchdown. The one to watch next: whether a run game that succeeded on 20% of its plays can keep the offense out of third-and-long.

That's your Chargers, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Chargers on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._