Patrick Mahomes — Week 8: 321 Yards, Sacked at the End

Patrick Mahomes had one of his better passing days of the season against the Broncos and lost on the last snap: 30 of 41 for 321 yards and 3 touchdowns, no interceptions, sacked twice, plus 2 carries for 6 yards. Over 44 dropbacks he was worth +10.9 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position: +0.25 per dropback. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was +7.8.

The biggest throw came up 7-6 midway through the second quarter: third and 10 at the Kansas City 27, he threw short left to Emmett Johnson, who caught it 10 yards past the line and ran the rest of the 73 for a touchdown, +7.0 EPA and 24.1 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. His other scores went to Rashee Rice from 11 and Noah Gray from 4.

The fourth quarter got away. Up 24-21 with 2:44 left, third and 2 at the Denver 30, Alex Singleton sacked him for 6, and Harrison Butker missed from 54. Down 28-24 on the last drive, his 32-yarder to Travis Kelce on second and 4 from midfield, +2.0 EPA and 23.3 points, and an 8-yarder to Kenneth Walker reached first and goal at the 4. From the 1 with 15 seconds left his pass fell incomplete, and after a false start pushed fourth down back to the 6, Malcolm Roach sacked him at the 12 to end the game, 37.5 points of win probability.

It was a rebound from Week 7, when he was at -0.12 per dropback against the Seahawks. Through Week 7 he had +27.4 EPA on 211 dropbacks, +0.13 per dropback, with a CPOE of +0.3, 9 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions.

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_Data via nflverse._