Patrick Mahomes (QB, Kansas City Chiefs) — 2026 fantasy outlook, updated Jun 15, 2026.
In 2025, Patrick Mahomes finished QB11 at 20.4 Half-PPR points per game (285.2 total) across 14 games.
Based on verified 2025 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring.
Mahomes finished a preseason without taking a snap for the first time in his career, and he heads toward the opener practicing fully but without medical clearance for game contact. If that clearance does not come, Justin Fields starts against Denver.
When Patrick Mahomes's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
Play fantasy? There's a version of this about your whole roster — follow your guys, free →
2025: 3,587 passing yards, 22 passing TDs, 11 INTs; 422 rushing yards on 64 carries, 5 rushing TDs (14 games)
Where he ranks — 2025
- #3Clean-Core Rating
- #7Interception-Worthy Throw Rate
- #7Quarterback EPA per Dropback
- #9Quarterback Intended Air Yards
- #10QB Composite Rating
- #13Quarterback Deep Ball
- #16Quarterback Pressure Rate
- #17Quarterback-Fault Sack Rate
- #19Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- #19Quarterbacks vs Man and Zone Coverage
- #31Completion Percentage Over Expected
- #31Availability
- #164Usage vs Production
- #164Goal-Line Usage
Compared with
Side-by-side verified 2025 production, and which side rests on inputs that repeat.
Chiefs backfield and handcuffs — the depth chart behind him, refreshed daily.
More episodes
- Camp · Aug 23, 2026
Patrick Mahomes Camp Update — August 23: Reid Leaves the Finale Door Open
Mahomes sat his second straight preseason game while practicing fully, and Andy Reid answered the question about the Seattle finale with a "we'll see" — a real departure from his old habit of playing his starter every August.
- Camp · Aug 16, 2026
Patrick Mahomes Camp Update — August 16: Throwing in Full Practice, Held Out on Purpose
Mahomes threw live in Thursday's practice and then watched Saturday's preseason opener in street-clothes mode, dressed but untouched. Eight months after knee reconstruction, both halves of that are the plan working.
- 2026 Preview
Patrick Mahomes 2026 Season Preview — a torn ACL under the QB4 rate
Mahomes finished QB11 across 14 games, averaging 20.4 half-PPR points per game on a frame built more around efficiency and touchdown rate than volume dominance — the kinds of inputs that carry weaker signals into future seasons. His 94.1% availability rate from 2021 through 2025 remains one of the steadiest durability marks at the position.
Show notes & transcript
Patrick Mahomes still finished as a top-four fantasy quarterback per game last season. He also tore his ACL near the end of it, and graded as one of the least accurate passers in the league. He's the thirteenth quarterback off the board — the lowest he's ever been drafted, for real reasons. The Muffed 2026 preview.
The 2025 season was good-not-vintage, then cut short: 14 games, 20.3 a game, QB4 per game but QB11 in total, on 3500 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 11 picks, +422 rushing yards and a rushing share that crept up to a quarter of his points. The signature was a three-touchdown, one-rushing-score game against Detroit in Week 6. Productive — but the underlying accuracy was poor, a completion percentage over expected near the bottom of the league.
The arc shows a clear dip from the peak: years of 24-to-26 a game, then a slide to the high teens in 2023 and 2024, and back to 23 in 2025. Still elite by reputation; no longer automatically the QB1.
What the data says, both directions: the QB4-per-game rate and the climbing rushing share are genuine positives — and the rushing share now nudges him into the floor-friendly tier. But the accuracy was bad, the kind of number that caps a passing ceiling, and a torn ACL is a torn ACL. The talent is unquestioned; the 2025 tape and the knee are the questions.
The situation, per the reports, is recovery and reinforcements, both with receipts now: Mahomes tore the ACL and LCL in his left knee on December fourteenth and had surgery the next day; as of June, the GM calls the rehab "way ahead of schedule," Mahomes was throwing in seven-on-sevens at minicamp while being held from full team drills, and the stated goal is Week One with no restrictions. The Chiefs, meanwhile, made him the NFL's first half-billion-dollar player — two years added in June, through 2033 — and stocked the shelves: Rashee Rice is back after serving a 30-day jail term for a probation violation from the 2024 crash case, plus a knee cleanup, with Reid expecting him on time for camp; Xavier Worthy had shoulder surgery and still came out of the spring as the practice standout; Justin Fields was traded for as insurance; and Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker now anchors the backfield. A healthy Mahomes with that arsenal is a top-five quarterback; a Mahomes a step slow off a knee reconstruction is the risk.
The price: pick 93, QB13. Verdict: WATCHLIST — the QB4 rate, the rising rushing share, and the restocked weapons argue he's underpriced; the knee reconstruction, the poor 2025 accuracy, and the two-year dip from his peak argue the discount is earned. Genuinely mixed, which is exactly why he's a watch and not a pound-the-table call. The counter for him: it's Patrick Mahomes at QB13. Against: you're betting on a clean ACL return and an accuracy rebound at once.
September watch: the knee — mobility and the rushing volume that now matters to his value; and the accuracy, the thing that quietly slipped. Your whole roster gets this treatment every week — that's the show.
- 2025 Review
Patrick Mahomes 2025 Season in Review
Show notes & transcript
Patrick Mahomes in 2025 — let's set the table. He finished as the number 11 quarterback in total PPR scoring, but the number 4 quarterback on a per-game basis. That gap tells the whole story before we open the box: Mahomes was a high-end weekly producer on a team that fell apart around him. The Chiefs went 6 and 11, missed the playoffs for the first time in the Mahomes era, and he suited up for just 14 games. When he played, top-five fantasy arm. When the operation needed him to drag a broken roster, the math caught up — and the real-football efficiency numbers underneath were rough.
Now let's dig into the numbers, because this is where it gets interesting. Mahomes averaged 20.4 PPR points per game on a boom-or-bust profile, and a huge chunk came from his legs: 422 rushing yards on 64 carries — 6.6 a pop — plus 5 rushing touchdowns. That rushing floor is what locked in the top-five per-game finish. The passing efficiency got muffed. His completion percentage over expected was minus 2.9, 31st among qualified passers — bottom of the league. Adjusted net yards per attempt of 6.2 ranked 19th. He threw 22 touchdowns against 11 interceptions and took 34 sacks behind protection that graded in the 41st percentile. On consistency, six games of 23 PPR or better — including a 31.5 against Detroit and back-to-back four-touchdown games against Baltimore and Dallas. But four games under 14 points, bottoming out at 6.3 against Houston in a three-interception clunker. Elite ceiling, real floor games mixed in, especially down the stretch when Kansas City lost eight of their last nine.
The defining play wasn't a touchdown — it was the third-quarter pick-six in Jacksonville. Tied 14-14, second and three at the Jaguars' three-yard line, Mahomes throws short middle for Juju Smith-Schuster, Devin Lloyd jumps it and takes it 99 yards the other way. Expected points on that snap: minus 12.7. A 14-point swing in a game the Chiefs lost by three. That's the season in miniature — Mahomes in scoring position, red-zone touchdown rate sitting in the bottom quarter of the league, one disastrous decision flipping the result. The arm talent and the rushing upside kept him fantasy-relevant every week. The accuracy and the turnovers are why the Chiefs are watching January at home.
Who else are you watching?
Follow every guy you care about — across all your leagues — and they all land in one email each week. Free.
Every Chiefs game, storied weekly.
The Muffed Chiefs Show — free, in your podcast app.
Ask this data a question
Every figure on this page comes out of Muffed's verified panel — and you can query the whole thing in plain English. No account, no key. Ask the data →
Use Muffed in your AI
Ask Claude or ChatGPT football questions and get these verified figures back, with sources. Add https://muffed.ai/api/mcp — free, no account, no API key.