Eagles 10, Commanders 27 — Week 8: 10-0 Up, Then Nothing

Philadelphia lost 27-10 at Washington on Sunday, its sixth straight loss, and fell to 2-6. The Eagles led 10-0 with 4:27 left in the first quarter, on Jake Elliott's 40-yard field goal and Saquon Barkley's 3-yard touchdown, and did not score again. Their last nine drives produced four punts, two turnovers, a missed field goal and the end of each half. The turnover margin was -1.

The passing game was Muffed, and total expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures it: 39 pass plays worth -10.6, -0.27 a play against -0.12 through Week 7. The five sacks account for -10.1 of that; the 37 pass plays that were neither a sack-fumble nor an interception came to -0.10 a play, close to the season standard. Tanner McKee, starting for the third straight week, completed 23 of 34 for 212 yards with no touchdown and an interception. Makai Lemon caught 6 of 9 for 57, Dallas Goedert all 4 of his for 30, and Eli Stowers 3 for 53, 34 of them on the last snap. The best throw set up the touchdown: right after a takeaway, first and 10 at the Washington 26, McKee went deep left to Barkley for 24 yards to the 2, +2.0 EPA. Up 10-3 early in the second quarter, Shy Tuttle's 7-yard sack on second and 5 at the Washington 44 stalled the next drive.

The run game finished a little better than its season, and success rate is the fairer read: 41.4% of 29 rush plays succeeded, for 91 yards. They were worth -2.4 EPA, -0.08 a play against -0.11 through Week 7. Barkley ran 13 times for 30 yards and Elijah Mitchell 11 for 34, and McKee scrambled four times for 25, including 15 yards on third and 4 early in the fourth quarter. Down 13-10 on third and 3 at the Washington 45, Mitchell lost 3 yards, -2.4 EPA, and the Eagles punted.

The pass defense played well above its standard, and EPA per play allowed shows how far: Washington's 31 pass plays were worth -0.07 a play, against +0.16 allowed through Week 7. On defense a negative number is good. Only 38.7% of those plays succeeded. Andrew Mukuba forced the first takeaway, knocking the ball from Chig Okonkwo after an 11-yard catch on first and 20 at the Washington 10, and Zack Baun recovered at the 26: -4.1 EPA and 11.4 points of win probability for Washington, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Jalen Carter's 12-yard sack on third and 9 forced a punt in the third, and Nolan Smith's sack on third and 6 at the 23 held a fourth-quarter drive to a field goal. The damage came deep: Jayden Daniels completed 16 of 29 for 217 yards, 53 of them to Treylon Burks and 30 to Antonio Williams.

The run defense gave up more than usual, and total EPA allowed shows it: Washington's 26 rush plays were worth +2.4, +0.09 a play against +0.06 allowed through Week 7; here a positive number is bad. They gained 135 yards and 42.3% succeeded. Rachaad White ran 11 times for 55 and Austin Ekeler 8 for 36. Down 16-10 in the fourth, the Eagles held White to no gain twice on one drive. Down 19-10 with 2:18 left, White went 33 yards off left tackle to the 4 and scored from the 1 two snaps later.

The game turned late in the third. Down 13-10 with 2:59 left, third and 4 at the Washington 37, McKee was sacked by Dorance Armstrong and fumbled, and Charles Omenihu recovered at the Washington 40: -4.7 EPA and 19.9 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Daniels hit Burks for 53 yards on the next snap, and Washington kicked a 25-yard field goal for 16-10. The Eagles answered with a drive to the Washington 13 that a roughing penalty kept alive by erasing an interception. On fourth down, Elliott's 36-yard field goal was wiped out by an illegal formation penalty on Jordan Mailata, and his 41-yarder hit the left upright, -3.8 EPA. Washington added a field goal, and a Rasul Douglas interception on fourth and 25 set up the last touchdown. The offense converted 5 of 15 third downs.

Last week's notebook asked whether a run game at +0.10 a play against Dallas, with Barkley back, was the start of something. Not yet: the run game was at -0.08 a play, and Barkley's 13 carries came to -0.16 apiece. The one to watch next: whether a passing game that gave back -10.1 EPA on five sacks can keep McKee upright.

That's your Eagles, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Eagles on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._