DeVonta Smith

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• Camp · Aug 23, 2026Aug 23, 2026

  DeVonta Smith Camp Update — August 23: Limited All Week, No Team Reps Yet

  DeVonta Smith practiced Monday for the first time in two weeks and stayed a limited participant through both joint practices in Foxborough, without team reps and without a preseason snap. The return has started. The featured role it is supposed to lead to is still all on paper.

• Camp · Aug 16, 2026Aug 17, 2026

  DeVonta Smith Camp Update — August 16: The Number One Job Is Waiting on a Hamstring

  DeVonta Smith missed another full week of team drills with his hamstring and sat the preseason opener, though he was running routes and cutting on the side by Tuesday. The football case from June is intact. The reps to rehearse it keep not happening.

• 2026 PreviewJun 13, 2026

  DeVonta Smith 2026 Season Preview — four touchdowns, and now the WR1

  Smith finished as WR21 on 9.6 half-PPR points per game across all 17 games, backed by 94.1% availability over the previous four seasons — a profile built heavily on durability and role consistency, both inputs that tend to carry. The efficiency layer of that finish is harder to bank on, since scoring rate and yards-per-route efficiency repeat poorly year to year.

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  Show notes & transcript

  DeVonta Smith scored four touchdowns all of last season and finished as the number 30 receiver per game. He is also, as of this offseason, the unquestioned number one receiver in Philadelphia — because A.J. Brown is gone. Both of those are true, and the temptation is to call him underpriced. But the question isn't really about the four touchdowns; it's whether the new role is an edge the data can stand behind — and that's a question the patterns flag but can't answer. The Muffed 2026 preview.

  The season was a tale of volume without payoff: a clean thousand yards on 77 catches and a hundred 13 targets, all 17 games, as the verified number-one receiver on an 11-six division champion — but only four touchdowns, on a top-three red-zone offense. The scores went to Jalen Hurts on the ground and Saquon Barkley; Smith got the volume and almost none of the end zone. The signature was a nine-catch, a hundred 83-yard explosion at Minnesota. The talent and the role were there; the touchdowns simply weren't.

  The arc is steady alpha production: he's posted four straight thousand-yard-ish seasons as a featured receiver. This wasn't a decline — it was a touchdown drought layered on top of a run-first offense that funneled scores elsewhere.

  And here's the pattern that actually fires — and what it does and doesn't say. The four touchdowns are the tell. His touchdown share — 12 percent — is the lowest of any receiver in this batch, historically suppressed. Touchdown production is the least sticky stat year to year; volume is the most. Smith kept a hundred-13-target alpha role while his scoring bottomed out, and low-touchdown receivers tend not to keep starving — they stabilize, often rebound. But here's the rub: that's the pattern arguing he holds around where he just finished, not that he leaps past his price. Our low-touchdown rule says a receiver like this is stable-to-rising — and stable, for Smith, is right about his WR30 finish. The pattern is a floor under the production, not a case that the production is mispriced.

  Now the situation — and it's the part the data can't price, which is exactly why this lands as a no call, per the reports: A.J. Brown was traded to New England on June first, vacating a hundred 21 targets in Philadelphia. Smith goes from co-alpha to undisputed WR1, with a rookie and a crowded receiver room behind him. More targets, more red-zone looks, the same quarterback — the arrows point up at exactly the moment his touchdown luck was due to turn. He's reportedly attacking the role like a man possessed. It's a genuine upside case — but a teammate's trade is context, not a pattern, and our rules don't let context carry a call.

  The price: pick 30, the twelfth receiver. Verdict: NO CALL — and the math is why. Start with the pattern, because it's the only thing here we can actually stand behind: the low touchdown share says his scoring stabilizes or ticks up, which lands his production right around his WR30 finish. But he's priced at receiver 12 — well above where the data says he sits. So the one validated read we have argues he's a touch rich at the tag, not cheap. The thing that would flip that is the A.J. Brown departure — and a vacated-target windfall is precisely the unmodelable context our rules won't let carry a call. Put the demonstrable evidence on one side and it doesn't clear the bar in either direction: the pattern won't underwrite an "under," and the situation that might is exactly what we can't price. The counter, in both directions: if the hundred-21 vacated targets really funnel to Smith and the touchdowns rebound at once, WR12 will look light by October — but the same run-first offense that buried his scoring is still the offense, and "the targets all flow to him" is an assumption, not a finish. The market got this one about right: love the upside and draft it, or pass on the price — but there's no edge to call.

  September watch: the target share with Brown gone — anything north of his old role is the bull case starting to show; and the red-zone looks, where four touchdowns has enormous room to climb. Your whole roster gets this treatment every week — that's the show.

• 2025 ReviewMay 11, 2026

  DeVonta Smith 2025 Season in Review

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  Show notes & transcript

  DeVonta Smith finished 2025 as the number 20 wide receiver in total full-point-per-reception scoring and the number 29 wide receiver in points per game — and that gap tells you most of what you need to know about his fantasy year. Smith played all 17 games as the verified number one receiver on an Eagles team that went 11 and 6 and won the NFC East. Durable. Available. On the field every week. But the per-game rank exposes the other side: this was a complementary-target profile in a run-leaning, Saquon Barkley-anchored offense, and the week-to-week volatility punished anyone who needed a steady wide receiver two.

  Now let's dig into the numbers. Smith caught 77 passes on 113 targets for 1,008 yards and just 4 touchdowns — a clean thousand-yard season, but only four trips to the end zone for a number one receiver. The efficiency held up: roughly 13 yards a catch, a 68 percent catch rate from Jalen Hurts, who posted a completion percentage above expected of plus 3.1 and threw 25 touchdown passes. The problem was consistency. Smith averaged 11.9 points per game, but the game log is a roller coaster — four games in single digits below 5 points, another four below 10, against three monster outings north of 16. Boom-or-bust, not steady floor. And in a Philadelphia offense that ranked top three in the league in red-zone touchdown rate at 74 percent, Smith caught only four scores all year, while Hurts ran for 8 himself and Barkley added 7 on the ground. The touchdown equity simply wasn't there — and that's the entire gap between a top-15 wide receiver and the number 29 finish per game.

  The season's identity play came in Week 7 at Minnesota, a 28-to-22 Eagles win where Smith went for 9 catches and 183 yards with a score on a deep middle touchdown from Hurts that flipped the game. That afternoon was his ceiling. When Philadelphia let it rip downfield, Smith was the beneficiary — the 52-yarder against Denver, the 41-yarder against Dallas, the 36-yard touchdown at Green Bay all came on deep shots, not a steady diet of underneath volume. That's the verdict in one line: Smith is a downfield separator in a run-first offense. The weeks the Eagles took deep shots, he smashed. The weeks they didn't, he got muffed.