Browns 6, Steelers 27 — Week 8: 9 Red-Zone Snaps, 0 Touchdowns

Cleveland lost 27-6 at Pittsburgh on Sunday, four weeks after beating the Steelers 27-24 at home, and fell to 5-3. The Browns never led. Andre Szmyt's field goals from 32 and 49 were the only points, the fewest Cleveland has scored this season. Of its drives, two ended in lost fumbles, two on downs, two in field goals, and the last ran out of time at the Pittsburgh 1.

The passing game was Muffed, and EPA per play shows by how much. Expected points added (EPA) is what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth; 49 pass plays were worth -10.4, -0.21 a play against -0.03 through Week 7. The ball moved between the 20s: 49% of those plays were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, and Deshaun Watson completed 27 of 39 for 324 yards, his most this season. What sank it was eight sacks, one a strip-sack, and Harold Fannin Jr.'s fumble on the opening drive. Fannin caught 10 of 12 targets for 154 yards. Down 27-6 early in the fourth, third and 4 at the Pittsburgh 39, Watson threw deep right to him for 37 yards to the 2. Quinshon Judkins then lost 3, and three throws from the 5 fell incomplete, the last to Denzel Boston on fourth down.

The run game had its worst day of the season, and the yardage says how bad: 35 yards on 14 rush plays, the fewest in any Cleveland game this season. Only 3 succeeded, 21.4%, and they were worth -6.9 EPA, -0.49 a play against -0.09 through Week 7. Judkins ran 11 times for 25 yards. Down 20-6 in the third, third and 1 at the Cleveland 14, Cameron Heyward dropped him for a 1-yard loss, and Cleveland punted from its own 13. With 22 seconds left he was stopped at the 1, and a false start with a 10-second runoff ended the game.

The pass defense played better than its own standard, and EPA per play allowed measures it: Pittsburgh's 25 pass plays were worth -0.15 a play against -0.02 allowed through Week 7. On defense a negative number is good. Aaron Rodgers completed 13 of 25 for 172 yards, and only 36% of those plays succeeded. Denzel Ward intercepted a deep throw to DK Metcalf in the third, and Adin Huntington's 11-yard sack on third and goal from the 8 turned a touchdown chance into a 37-yard field goal. The damage came on a few throws: Darnell Washington caught 3 for 94, and his 58-yarder from the Pittsburgh 41 in the third reached the Cleveland 1 before Jaylen Warren scored.

The run defense gave the game away on the ground, and success rate allowed shows how often: 54.5% of Pittsburgh's 33 rush plays succeeded, for 200 yards, the most Cleveland has allowed in a game this season. They were worth +11.2 EPA, +0.34 a play against -0.05 allowed through Week 7; here a positive number is bad. Warren ran 17 times for 143 yards. Down 7-0 late in the first, with Pittsburgh facing third and 13 at its own 24, he went up the middle for 51 yards, +5.1 EPA for Pittsburgh. Rico Dowdle ran for 15, 9 and 9 on the first touchdown drive, which started at the Cleveland 45 after the strip-sack.

The game turned in the last 45 seconds of the first half. Szmyt's 49-yarder, set up by KC Concepcion's 24-yard catch on third and 3 and Fannin's 9-yarder on third and 18, had cut it to 13-6. Pittsburgh then went 69 yards in 35 seconds: Warren ran 23, Pat Freiermuth caught a 28-yarder, Germie Bernard took a 15-yarder to the 1, and after a spike Freiermuth scored on a direct snap with 5 seconds left. Cleveland's win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, fell from 20% to 9%. The second half opened with a three-and-out from the Cleveland 5, and Washington's catch and Warren's run made it 27-6.

Last week's notebook asked whether a run game at +0.26 a play against the Titans would keep any of it, and whether an offense that gave the ball away twice could win without a late field goal. The run game kept none of it, -0.49 a play, and the offense lost two fumbles again and scored no touchdown. The one to watch next: whether the protection that allowed eight sacks here, matching the eight against the Jets in Week 5, can keep Watson upright; he has been sacked 33 times in eight games.

That's your Browns, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Browns on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._