Buccaneers 16, Falcons 0 — Week 8: 325 Rush Yards, No Completions

Tampa Bay beat Atlanta 16-0 at home in the rain on Sunday without completing a pass, and moved to 3-5 with its second straight win. It was the first time this season the defense kept an opponent off the scoreboard. Chase McLaughlin kicked field goals from 46, 34 and 42 yards, Bucky Irving scored the only touchdown, and the defense intercepted Michael Penix Jr. four times. 12 drives produced a touchdown, three field goals, one turnover and three three-and-outs, and the turnover margin was +3.

The passing game was Muffed in the little it was asked to do, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures the cost: 4 pass plays worth -6.2 EPA, -1.56 a play against -0.21 through Week 7. All four came on third down. Baker Mayfield missed Ted Hurst III deep right on third and 5 at the Atlanta 28 and Chris Godwin deep left on third and 7 at the 16, and both drives ended in field goals. His third throw, short left for Kenny Gainwell on third and 5, ended a three-and-out, and Harold Perkins Jr. sacked him on third and 7 midway through the third quarter. Tampa Bay did not throw again.

The run game carried the day, and success rate shows how steadily: 45.5% of 55 rush plays were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, for 325 yards and a touchdown. EPA had them at -3.7, -0.07 a play against +0.06 through Week 7, and one snap explains the minus. Up 3-0, second and 7 at the Atlanta 15, Mayfield fumbled, recovered and pitched to Irving, who reached the 1 before Jessie Bates knocked the ball loose and it went out of bounds in the end zone, a touchback: -5.2 EPA and 10.7 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. The other 54 rush plays were worth +1.6. Irving ran 27 times for 170 yards and Gainwell 25 times for 140. Up 9-0 in the third, from the Tampa Bay 10, Irving went 46 yards around left end on second and 1, Gainwell added 28 to the 6, and Irving finished from the 4 on the sixth straight run of a 90-yard drive. Gainwell then ran out most of the last 3:10, seven carries for 47 yards while Atlanta spent its timeouts.

The pass defense Smashed, and total EPA allowed says by how much: Atlanta's 24 pass plays were worth -24.1, -1.00 a play against -0.12 allowed through Week 7. On defense a negative number is good, and this was eight times the usual. Penix completed 8 of 24 for 125 yards with four interceptions, and only 20.8% of the pass plays succeeded. Alex Anzalone had two, Jacob Parrish took one on fourth and 6 at the Tampa Bay 32, and Zyon McCollum picked one off at the Tampa Bay 14 early in the fourth quarter. The leak was Jahan Dotson's 76-yard catch from the Atlanta 2 with 4:35 left; three straight incompletions from the 14 handed the ball back on downs. Atlanta went 0 for 12 on third down.

The run defense held a little better than its standard, and EPA per play allowed measures it: Atlanta's 28 rush plays were worth -0.11 a play, against -0.09 allowed through Week 7, for 99 yards and a 35.7% success rate. Bijan Robinson ran 19 times for 76 yards. Down 9-0 with 1:30 left in the half, fourth and 1 at the Tampa Bay 36, SirVocea Dennis and Anthony Nelson stopped him for no gain: -2.9 EPA and 5.8 points of win probability for Atlanta. What got through was Penix on his feet, converting three fourth downs.

The game turned in under two minutes of the first quarter. Up 3-0, first and 10 at the Atlanta 34 with 7:35 left, Penix threw short right for Drake London and Anzalone intercepted at the 41; London's unnecessary-roughness penalty on the return moved the ball to the 18. That snap cost Atlanta -6.4 EPA and 14.1 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Two plays later the Irving fumble gave it back, and on third and 10 at the Atlanta 20, Anzalone intercepted Penix again and returned it to the 19. McLaughlin kicked from 34 for 6-0, and the Falcons never scored. The offense converted 4 of 13 third downs.

Last week's notebook asked whether a passing game at -0.25 a play through Week 6 could hold anything like +0.48 when Mayfield threw more than 11 times, and whether a run game that succeeded on 55.3% of its plays would keep that rate. Mayfield threw three times, none complete, at -1.56 a play, and the success rate fell to 45.5% while the yards rose to 325. The one to watch next: whether an offense with 15 pass plays across two wins can move the ball through the air when a game asks it to.

That's your Buccaneers, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Buccaneers on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._