Jaguars 42, Colts 7 — Week 8: Lane's 92-Yard Pick-Six

Jacksonville beat Indianapolis 42-7 at home on Sunday, out of its bye, and went to 5-2. The 42 points and the 35-point margin were both its most this season, and it led 28-0 at the half. The offense scored five touchdowns on 12 drives, punted six times and lost one fumble; Rayuan Lane III added a sixth touchdown on a 92-yard interception return. The turnover margin was +2.

The passing game was efficient in small doses, and success rate is the clearest read: 50% of its 20 pass plays were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, had them at +4.4, +0.22 a play against +0.28 through Week 7, a little under its own standard because three sacks cost 33 yards and one cost the ball. Trevor Lawrence completed 10 of 14 for 210 yards and three touchdowns, the 14 attempts his fewest this season. Brenton Strange's 46-yard catch on second and 5 from the Jacksonville 22, his longest this season, started a 98-yard opening drive that Brian Thomas Jr. finished from 12 yards on third and 12. Nate Boerkircher caught a 31-yard touchdown down the left side, and Tuten took a short pass 25 yards for the last score with 6 seconds left in the third. The cost: up 21-0 with 1:03 left in the half, Jaylahn Tuimoloau sacked Lawrence and forced a fumble that the Colts returned to the Jacksonville 31, -5.4 EPA.

The run game had its biggest day of the season, and the yardage says so: 183 yards on 33 rush plays, the most in any game this season. They were worth +6.1 EPA, +0.19 a play against +0.01 through Week 7. The success rate, 42.4%, says the value was concentrated: two runs gained 67 yards and the other 31 gained 116. Tuten ran 16 times for 104, six of them for 28 yards on the opening drive, and his 39-yarder off right tackle with 2:00 left in the half was the longest Jacksonville run this season and made it 21-0. Chris Rodriguez Jr. ran 6 times for 41, including a 28-yard touchdown up the middle on third and 1 for 35-0.

The pass defense Smashed, and total EPA allowed measures it: the Colts' 34 pass plays were worth -21.3, -0.63 a play against +0.02 allowed through Week 7, its best game this season by either figure. On defense a negative number is good. Daniel Jones completed 19 of 28 for 144 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions, and was sacked three times, by Travon Walker, Foyesade Oluokun, and Arik Armstead and Josh Hines-Allen together on fourth and 3. The defining snap came after Lawrence's fumble, with the Colts set up at the Jacksonville 17 and 25 seconds left in the half, down 21-0. Out of a timeout, Jones threw short left for Tyler Warren with Ruke Orhorhoro hitting him on the play; Lane intercepted at the 8 and ran it 92 yards the other way. That was -11.0 EPA for the Colts, the costliest play of the game, and it made the half 28-0. Branson Combs intercepted the second, also aimed at Warren, at the 19 early in the fourth. The Colts converted 3 of 11 third downs.

The run defense held up where it counted, and EPA per play allowed shows it: the Colts' 24 rush plays were worth -6.9, -0.29 a play against -0.14 allowed through Week 7; here, too, negative is good. It was not every snap, since 45.8% of those plays succeeded for 111 yards. Jonathan Taylor ran 8 times for 23 yards after a 19-yarder on the first snap. Down 35-0 with first and goal at the 3, the Colts ran Taylor twice: Oluokun and Dennis Gardeck dropped him for a 1-yard loss, Danny Striggow for 2, and the touchdown had to come on third and 6.

The game turned with 9:11 left in the second quarter. Up 7-0, the defense had let the Colts reach first and 10 at the Jacksonville 41 when the play broke down before it started: Taylor fumbled an aborted snap and Bryan Thomas Jr. recovered at midfield, -5.8 EPA and 10.0 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. Four snaps later Boerkircher scored. In the rest of the half, Tuten's 39-yard run and Lane's return made it 28-0.

Last week's notebook, from the Texans loss before the bye, asked whether a pass defense that let most throws arrive catchable would get back toward its standard, and whether the drops would stay a one-week problem. The catchable count and the drops wait for the charting. The result does not: -0.63 a play allowed, after +0.41 against the Texans. The one to watch next: whether a line that gave up three sacks on Lawrence's 19 dropbacks, after 10 on 201 through Week 7, settles back.

That's your Jaguars, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Jaguars on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._