Falcons 0, Buccaneers 16 — Week 8: Four Picks, No Points

Atlanta lost 16-0 at Tampa Bay in the rain on Sunday, its first game this season without a point, and fell to 3-5. Michael Penix Jr. threw four interceptions after throwing one in 144 attempts across his first five games. 12 drives produced no touchdowns and no field goals: four turnovers, two turnovers on downs and four three-and-outs, after Nick Folk's 53-yard try on the opening drive went wide left. The turnover margin was -3.

The passing game was Muffed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, says how badly: 24 pass plays worth -24.1 EPA, -1.00 a play against -0.09 through Week 7. Only 20.8% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Penix completed 8 of 24 for 125 yards. Drake London caught 1 of his 6 targets for 8 yards, and two of the interceptions were thrown his way, one on fourth and 6 at the Tampa Bay 32. Jahan Dotson caught 2 of 5 for 95, 76 of them on one throw from the Atlanta 2 with 4:35 left; from the Tampa Bay 14, three straight incompletions turned it over on downs. The offense went 0 for 12 on third down.

The run game stayed below zero, and EPA per play shows by how much: 28 rush plays worth -0.11 a play against -0.01 through Week 7, for 99 yards. Only 35.7% succeeded. Bijan Robinson ran 19 times for 76 yards, 26 of them on the first snap of the second quarter. Down 9-0 with 1:30 left in the half, fourth and 1 at the Tampa Bay 36, he was stopped for no gain: -2.9 EPA and 5.8 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Penix's legs did better, converting three fourth downs, two up the middle and one on a scramble.

The pass defense faced almost nothing, and EPA per play allowed tells it: Tampa Bay's 4 pass plays were worth -1.56 a play, against +0.02 allowed through Week 7. On defense a negative number is good. Baker Mayfield threw three times on third down and missed all three, and Harold Perkins Jr. sacked him for 2 yards on third and 7 at the Tampa Bay 48 in the third quarter. Tampa Bay did not throw again.

The run defense gave up the game's volume, and success rate allowed shows how often it lost the down: 45.5% of Tampa Bay's 55 rush plays succeeded, for 325 yards and a touchdown. They were worth -0.07 a play against -0.09 allowed through Week 7; negative is good here, and this was a little less of it than usual. Bucky Irving ran 27 times for 170 yards and Kenny Gainwell 25 for 140. Jessie Bates made the stop of the day in the first quarter, knocking the ball from Irving at the 1; it went out of bounds in the end zone for a touchback, -5.2 EPA for Tampa Bay. The touchdown drive was six runs for 90 yards, led by Irving's 46 yards around left end on second and 1. Down 16-0 with 3:10 left, Atlanta spent all three timeouts while Gainwell ran seven times for 47 yards to end it.

The game turned in under two minutes of the first quarter. Down 3-0, first and 10 at the Atlanta 34 with 7:35 left, Penix threw short right for London and Alex Anzalone intercepted at the 41. London's unnecessary-roughness penalty on the return put Tampa Bay at the 18: -6.4 EPA and 14.1 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Bates's forced fumble erased it two plays later, but on the next series, third and 10 at the Atlanta 20, Anzalone intercepted Penix again and returned it to the 19. Chase McLaughlin's 34-yarder made it 6-0, already enough.

Last week's notebook asked whether a run game at -0.24 a play, below zero for a third straight week, would find room for Robinson, and whether a run defense that allowed +0.11 a play would get back to its standard. Robinson did not find it: -0.39 a carry, and the run game below zero for a fourth straight week. The run defense got back below zero at -0.07 a play, short of the -0.09 it carried through Week 7. The one to watch next: whether Penix, with four interceptions in 24 throws here after one in 144 through Week 7, gets back to the ball security that defined his first five games.

That's your Falcons, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Falcons on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._