Bo Nix — Week 8: Two Fourth-Down Touchdowns

Bo Nix beat the Chiefs with his second straight efficient game: 20 of 32 for 222 yards, 2 touchdowns and no interceptions, sacked once, plus 3 carries for 4 yards. Over 35 dropbacks, the sack and a scramble included, he was worth +8.5 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position: +0.24 per dropback. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was -3.6.

The throw that decided it came down 24-21 with 2:31 left, one snap after Harrison Butker missed from 54. First and 10 at the Denver 44: Nix threw short right to Jonah Coleman, who caught it a yard past the line and ran to the Kansas City 5, +3.8 EPA and 23.7 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Coleman scored on the next play.

Both touchdown passes came on fourth and goal. Down 14-6 with 1:19 left in the half, after three runs from the 1 got nothing, he threw short right to Jaylen Waddle for the score, +2.5 EPA and 17.8 points. Down 24-13 with 9:00 left, fourth and goal at the 2, he found Nate Adkins short right, +3.8 EPA, then hit Waddle for the two-point conversion. His 35-yarder to Waddle on second and 18 was the other big gain. The quiet stretch was the third quarter: three drives, three three-and-outs.

It was the first time this season he had positive EPA per dropback in back-to-back games, after +0.35 against the Cardinals in Week 7. Through Week 7 he had -9.5 EPA on 236 dropbacks, -0.04 per dropback, with a CPOE of -2.5, 7 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions.

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_Data via nflverse._