Lions 19, Vikings 15 — Week 8: 166 Rushing Yards After Halftime

Detroit beat Minnesota 19-15 at Ford Field on Sunday, handing the Vikings their first loss of the season and moving to 5-2. The Lions trailed 7-6 at halftime, went ahead on Jahmyr Gibbs's 30-yard touchdown run late in the third, fell behind 15-12 with 8:44 left and answered with a 69-yard drive that Jameson Williams finished. 11 drives brought two touchdowns, two Jake Bates field goals, a missed 46-yarder, an interception and four punts, and the turnover margin was even.

The passing game finished below zero for the first time this season, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures the drop: 29 pass plays worth -4.2 EPA, -0.14 a play against +0.30 through Week 7. Jared Goff completed 18 of 25 for 176 yards, a touchdown and an interception, and was sacked four times, all before halftime. The first half's 20 pass plays came to -5.8 EPA; the 9 after it, +1.6. Down 7-3 in the second quarter, on third and 8 at the Detroit 39, Goff threw short left for Williams and Minnesota intercepted at its 46, -3.3 EPA. The biggest gain was wasted: Goff's 46-yarder to Williams on third and 13 in the first quarter, +3.9 EPA, lost 15 yards to a taunting penalty on Williams, an Amon-Ra St. Brown touchdown was overturned on review, and the drive settled for a field goal.

The run game Smashed after halftime, and the yardage leads: 232 yards on 37 rush plays, Detroit's most in any game this season, and 48.6% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. They were worth +2.0 EPA, +0.05 a play against -0.09 through Week 7. Before the break, 16 rush plays went for 66 yards and -6.1 EPA; after it, 21 went for 166 and +8.1. Gibbs ran 23 times for 153 yards and Sione Vaki 11 times for 65. Down 7-6 with 4:50 left in the third, one snap after St. Brown ran 10 yards on third and 8, Gibbs went up the middle from the Minnesota 30 for the touchdown: +2.7 EPA and 10.3 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. The two-point try failed. In the first half he had lost 3 yards on second and 2 at the Minnesota 4 and 2 on third and 1 at the Detroit 28.

The pass defense played far above its standard, and third downs show it first: Minnesota converted 3 of 10. Its 32 pass plays were worth -0.08 a play, against +0.21 allowed through Week 7; on defense a negative number is good. Kyler Murray completed 17 of 29 for 210 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, and was sacked three times. D.J. Reed was in both big stops. With Minnesota up 7-3 and 1:51 left in the half, first and 10 at the Minnesota 47, Murray threw short left for Jordan Addison and Reed intercepted at the Detroit 38, -3.9 EPA and 8.8 points; Bates kicked a 37-yarder before the half. Up 12-7 on the first snap of the fourth, fourth and 5 at the Detroit 25, Reed defended another short throw for Addison as Aidan Hutchinson hit Murray, -3.6 EPA and 8.6 points. The leak came at 10:16, Murray's 51-yarder deep middle to Addison, the largest win-probability swing of the game at 15.9 points. T.J. Hockenson's 8-yard touchdown and Addison's two-point catch made it 15-12.

The run defense held firm, and success rate allowed leads it: 41.2% of Minnesota's 17 rush plays succeeded, for 82 yards, the fewest runs the Vikings have had in a game this season. Those plays were worth -3.0 EPA, -0.17 a play against -0.01 allowed through Week 7; here too, negative is good. Jordan Mason ran 8 times for 20 yards. Up 12-7 with 25 seconds left in the third, second and 10 at the Detroit 30, Mason was dropped for a 5-yard loss, -1.7 EPA, and the drive died two snaps later on the fourth-down incompletion.

The game turned on Detroit's answer to the go-ahead score. Down 15-12 with 8:39 left, from its own 31, the offense ran on five of seven snaps: Gibbs for 17, a 5-yard catch by Vaki, Vaki for 12 and 10, then Gibbs for 9 twice, the second on second and 1 to the Minnesota 7. On first and 7, Goff threw short left to Williams for the touchdown, +1.5 EPA and 7.4 points, and the extra point made it 19-15 with 4:35 left. Minnesota went three-and-out. From the Detroit 17 with 2:53 left, Gibbs ran for 14 and 8, the Vikings spent all three timeouts, and Goff's 2-yard run on third and 1 at midfield let him kneel twice.

Last week's notebook asked whether a run game that kept losing the ball would stop giving it away, and whether Goff would finish more than 3 of 7 throws inside the 20. Nobody fumbled on 37 rush plays. Inside the 20 Goff completed 2 of 3, one of them the winning touchdown, though the first drive stalled at the 4. The one to watch next: whether a passing game at -0.14 a play gets back toward the +0.30 it carried in, or the second-half run game stays the plan.

That's your Lions, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Lions on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._