Steelers 27, Browns 6 — Week 8: Eight Sacks, 200 Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh beat Cleveland 27-6 at home on Sunday, four weeks after losing 27-24 in Cleveland, and went to 6-2 with its fourth straight win. The Steelers never trailed. Three rushing touchdowns, from Rico Dowdle, Pat Freiermuth and Jaylen Warren, and Chris Boswell field goals from 20 and 37 made the 27; Boswell also missed from 57 on Pittsburgh's first drive. The 6 points were the fewest Pittsburgh has allowed this season, and the turnover margin was +1.

The passing game finished below its own standard, and success rate shows how rarely it worked: 36% of its 25 pass plays were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, had them at -3.7, -0.15 a play against -0.11 through Week 7. Aaron Rodgers completed 13 of 25 for 172 yards with an interception and was sacked once. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was -11.0. Inside the 10 on goal-to-go downs he threw 4 incompletions and took an 11-yard sack, and both trips ended in field goals. DK Metcalf caught 1 of 6 targets for 4 yards, and Denzel Ward intercepted a deep throw to him in the third. Darnell Washington caught 3 for 94, including a 58-yarder on first and 10 from the Pittsburgh 41 that reached the Cleveland 1.

The run game Smashed, and EPA per play measures it: 33 rush plays worth +11.2, +0.34 a play against +0.07 through Week 7. They gained 200 yards, the most in any Pittsburgh game this season, one week after 150 set the mark, and 54.5% succeeded. Warren ran 17 times for 143 yards and a touchdown. Up 7-0 late in the first quarter, third and 13 at the Pittsburgh 24, he went up the middle for 51 yards to the Cleveland 25, +5.1 EPA and 8.7 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Dowdle ran 15 times for 56: his first 7 carries gained 57 yards and his last 8, with the game decided, lost 1.

The pass defense had its best day of the season, and total EPA allowed says so: Cleveland's 49 pass plays were worth -10.4, -0.21 a play against -0.03 allowed through Week 7. On defense a negative number is good. The rush got Watson eight times, the most Pittsburgh has managed in a game this season after a high of 5: T.J. Watt had 2, Patrick Queen and Cameron Heyward 1.5 each, Nick Herbig and Kevin Jobity Jr. 1 each, and Alex Highsmith and Keeanu Benton a half each. Daylen Everette forced Harold Fannin Jr.'s fumble on Cleveland's opening drive, recovered it himself, and Pittsburgh won the challenge that made it a turnover. The leak was Fannin, 10 catches for 154 yards. His 37-yarder on third and 4 early in the fourth reached the Pittsburgh 2, and four snaps later Watson's fourth-and-5 throw to Denzel Boston fell incomplete. Cleveland ran 9 snaps in the red zone and scored no touchdowns.

The run defense allowed almost nothing, and success rate allowed shows how little: 3 of Cleveland's 14 rush plays succeeded, 21.4%, for 35 yards. They were worth -6.9 EPA, -0.49 a play against -0.06 allowed through Week 7; here, too, negative is good. Quinshon Judkins ran 11 times for 25 yards. Heyward stopped him for a 1-yard loss on third and 1 at the Cleveland 14 in the third, Payton Wilson dropped him for 3 on first and goal from the 2 in the fourth, and Jaquan Brisker and Gabe Rubio held him short at the 1 with 22 seconds left.

The game turned on Cleveland's second possession. Tied 0-0 with 10:41 left in the first, second and 7 at midfield, Queen and Heyward sacked Watson, Queen knocked the ball out and Benton recovered at the Cleveland 45: -5.4 EPA for Cleveland and 12.1 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Germie Bernard caught a 9-yarder and Dowdle ran 15, 9 and 9 for the touchdown. Pittsburgh's win probability went from 53% before the sack to 75% after the extra point. With 40 seconds left in the half and a 13-6 lead, Warren ran 23, Freiermuth caught a 28-yarder, Bernard took a 15-yarder to the 1, and Freiermuth scored on a direct snap with 5 seconds left. Washington's 58-yarder and Warren's 1-yard run made it 27-6 midway through the third.

Last week's notebook asked whether a pass defense that allowed +0.26 a play against the Saints would get back to its standard. It went past it: -0.21 a play, eight sacks, two forced fumbles. The one to watch next: whether a passing game with a 36% success rate, and no completion on four goal-to-go throws, can turn red-zone trips into touchdowns when the run game does not gain 200 yards.

That's your Steelers, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Steelers on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._