Commanders 27, Eagles 10 — Week 8: 27 Straight After 10-0

Washington beat Philadelphia 27-10 at home on Sunday, out of its bye, and went to 2-4-1, avenging a 24-22 loss in Philadelphia in Week 1. The Commanders trailed 10-0 with 4:27 left in the first quarter and scored the last 27 points. 11 drives produced two touchdowns, four Drew Stevens field goals, from 56, 39, 25 and 42 yards, one turnover, three punts and a 55-yard miss. The turnover margin was +1.

The passing game finished a little under its standard, and success rate shows how uneven it was: 38.7% of its 31 pass plays were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, had them at -2.1, -0.07 a play against 0.00 through Week 7. One play carried most of that: on first and 20 at the Washington 10, Chig Okonkwo caught an 11-yarder and Andrew Mukuba knocked it loose, -4.1 EPA, and Philadelphia scored three snaps later. The other 30 pass plays were worth +2.0. Jayden Daniels completed 16 of 29 for 217 yards and a touchdown and was sacked twice. Treylon Burks caught 3 of 5 for 81, and Antonio Williams 5 of 7 for 54, including a 30-yarder on second and 8 in the fourth that set up the 42-yard field goal. Stefon Diggs caught the touchdown, 8 yards on first and goal, for the 10-10 tie with 5:01 left in the half.

The run game beat its season, and EPA per play says by how much: 26 rush plays worth +2.4, +0.09 a play against -0.03 through Week 7, for 135 yards. Rachaad White ran 11 times for 55 and the last touchdown, Austin Ekeler 8 for 36, and Daniels scrambled twice for 23. Ekeler's 18-yarder to the Philadelphia 8 set up Diggs's score. White's 33-yarder off left tackle on first and 10 at the Philadelphia 37, +2.9 EPA, took the ball to the 4 with 2:18 left; he scored from the 1 two snaps later, and Ekeler ran in the two-point try for 27-10.

The pass defense Smashed, and total EPA allowed shows the size of it: Philadelphia's 39 pass plays were worth -10.6, -0.27 a play against +0.07 allowed through Week 7. On defense a negative number is good. The five sacks, by Shy Tuttle, Charles Omenihu, Dorance Armstrong, K'Lavon Chaisson and Odafe Oweh, were the most Washington has had in a game this season and were worth -10.1 EPA on their own. McKee completed 23 of 34 for 212 yards with no touchdown and an interception. Philadelphia converted 5 of 15 third downs. Up 19-10 with 3:02 left, Chaisson's 11-yard sack on third and 14 left fourth and 25, and Rasul Douglas intercepted the deep throw for Darius Cooper and returned it 22 yards to the Philadelphia 37.

The run defense beat its standard too, and success rate allowed tells it: 41.4% of Philadelphia's 29 rush plays succeeded, for 91 yards. They were worth -2.4 EPA, -0.08 a play against +0.06 allowed through Week 7; here too, negative is good. Saquon Barkley ran 13 times for 30 yards and Elijah Mitchell 11 for 34. Barkley's 3-yard touchdown on a direct snap came on a short field after the fumble. On third and 3 at the Washington 45 in the third quarter, Nick Cross dropped Mitchell for a 3-yard loss, -2.4 EPA, and Philadelphia punted.

The game turned late in the third. Up 13-10 with 2:59 left, the defense faced third and 4 at its own 37 when Armstrong sacked McKee and knocked the ball loose, and Omenihu recovered at the 40: -4.7 EPA for Philadelphia and 19.9 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. On the next snap Daniels went deep right to Burks for 53 yards to the Philadelphia 7, +3.3 EPA. The offense gained nothing on the next three plays, and Stevens kicked from 25 for 16-10. Philadelphia's next drive got to the Washington 13, helped by a Chaisson roughing penalty that wiped out a Trey Amos interception. A 36-yard field goal came off for illegal formation, and Jake Elliott hit the left upright from 41. The defense stopped 10 of 15 third downs.

Last week's notebook, from Week 6 before the bye, asked whether a run defense hit hard in San Francisco could get back to the -0.05 a play it allowed through Week 5, and whether a passing game that came alive after halftime could do it from the first snap. The run defense did, at -0.08. The passing game did not: its 21 pass plays before the break were worth -5.3 EPA, its 10 after it +3.2. The one to watch next: whether a pass rush that got home five times, after never more than three in a game this season, keeps it up.

That's your Commanders, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Commanders on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._