Rams 24, Chargers 9 — Week 8: Two Picks and the Last 6:39

The Rams beat the Chargers 24-9 at SoFi Stadium on Sunday and evened their record at 4-4, leaving the Chargers 0-7. They trailed 9-3 with 1:55 left in the first half, scored touchdowns on three of their next four possessions, and finished with a 12-play drive that ran out the last 6:39. The defense allowed no touchdowns and turned two interceptions into 10 points.

The passing game was the weak unit on a winning day, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures how weak: 26 pass plays worth -4.8 EPA, -0.19 a play against +0.09 through Week 7, the lowest since Week 1. Half were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, so the damage sat in a few snaps. Matthew Stafford completed 17 of 25 for 157 yards, a touchdown and an interception, and was sacked once. Puka Nacua caught 11 of his 12 targets for 80 yards. The interception came on the first possession: third and 6 at the Rams 37, a short throw for Konata Mumpfield that Tarheeb Still picked off at the 47, -4.1 EPA. The offense converted 3 of 11 third downs.

The run game carried more of the load, and yards per play frames it: 129 yards on 27 rush plays, 4.8 a play, with two touchdowns. They were worth +1.1 EPA, +0.04 a play against +0.02 through Week 7, and 40.7% succeeded. Blake Corum ran 11 times for 73 yards and Kyren Williams 16 times for 56 and a touchdown. Corum carried five times for 55 yards on the opening drive of the third quarter, the last from first and 10 at the Chargers 23, straight up the middle for the touchdown and a 17-9 lead: +2.1 EPA and 8.3 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Up 24-9 with 6:39 left, Williams took 11 of the last drive's 12 snaps for 41 yards. His 2-yarder on fourth and 1 at the Chargers 38 ended the game.

The pass defense Smashed, and total EPA allowed says by how much: the Chargers' 33 pass plays were worth -16.2, -0.49 a play against -0.07 allowed through Week 7, the unit's best game this season except Week 2. On defense a negative number is good. Justin Herbert completed 24 of 32 for 257 yards, but the two interceptions alone were worth -13.8 EPA; the other 31 pass plays came to -2.4. Tied 0-0 in the first quarter, third and 5 at the Rams 38, Herbert threw short right for Charlie Kolar, and Quentin Lake intercepted at the 36 and returned it 45 yards to the Chargers 19: -7.1 EPA and 21.1 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Brandon McManus kicked a 30-yard field goal from there. Up 17-9 in the third, Trent McDuffie picked off another throw for Kolar at the Chargers 48 and returned it 26 yards to the 22, and Stafford found Nacua for an 18-yard touchdown two plays later. The defense stopped 9 of 15 third downs.

The run defense was just as good, and success rate allowed is the cleanest read: 5 of the Chargers' 25 rush plays succeeded, 20%, the lowest the Rams have allowed this season. They gained 64 yards and were worth -10.1 EPA, -0.40 a play against -0.05 allowed through Week 7; here too, negative is good. Omarion Hampton ran 9 times for 20 yards and Kimani Vidal 8 times for 23. Two stops turned drives into field goals: Hampton lost a yard on third and 1 at the Rams 15 and gained nothing on third and 3 at the 23.

The game turned in the last two minutes of the first half. Down 9-3 after Cameron Dicker's third field goal, the Rams took over at their 34 with 1:55 left. On second and 1 Stafford went deep left to Tutu Atwell for 40 yards to the Chargers 17, +1.5 EPA. Nacua's 13-yard catch on second and 7 reached the 1, +2.2 EPA, and Williams went in off right tackle with 22 seconds left for 10-9. A short-kickoff penalty gave the Chargers the ball at their 40, and with 4 seconds left Herbert hit Ladd McConkey deep right for 54 yards; he was brought down at the Rams 1 as the half ended. Corum's drive opened the third, and the Chargers never ran another play inside the Rams 20.

Last week's notebook asked about ball security, after giveaways on two of the first four possessions after halftime, and whether a run game at +0.17 a play would keep carrying the offense. The one giveaway came on the first possession, and there were none after halftime. The run game fell back to +0.04 a play, but it still outgained the passing game in EPA, +1.1 to -4.8, on one more snap. The one to watch next: whether a passing game at -0.19 a play gets back to the +0.09 it carried through Week 7.

That's your Rams, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Rams on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._