Vikings 15, Lions 19 — Week 8: First Loss, 232 Yards Allowed

Minnesota lost 19-15 at Detroit on Sunday, its first loss of the season, and fell to 6-1. The Vikings led 7-6 at halftime and 15-12 with 8:44 left, then gave up a 69-yard touchdown drive, went three-and-out and never got the ball back. Their possessions produced two touchdowns, Will Reichard's missed 57-yarder on the opening drive, an interception, a turnover on downs, five punts and a kneel-down before halftime. The turnover margin was even.

The passing game played to its standard, and success rate frames it: 46.9% of 32 pass plays were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, had them at -2.7, -0.08 a play, level with -0.08 through Week 7. Kyler Murray completed 17 of 29 for 210 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, and was sacked three times; the two touchdown passes were his most in a game this season. T.J. Hockenson caught 4 of 5 for 58 yards and Justin Jefferson 5 of 9 for 33. Down 12-7 with 10:16 left, first and 10 at the Minnesota 39, Murray went deep middle to Jordan Addison for 51 yards to the Detroit 10: +3.0 EPA and 15.9 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. Two snaps later, on second and 8 at the 8, Hockenson caught the touchdown over the middle, and Addison caught the two-point try for 15-12. The costs came on throws to him too. With 1:51 left in the half, up 7-3, D.J. Reed intercepted at the Detroit 38, -3.9 EPA. Down 12-7 on the first snap of the fourth, fourth and 5 at the Detroit 25, Reed broke up a short throw, -3.6 EPA and 8.6 points. Minnesota converted 3 of 10 third downs.

The run game barely got the ball, and volume tells it: 17 rush plays for 82 yards, the fewest rush plays in any Vikings game this season. They were worth -3.0 EPA, -0.17 a play against -0.12 through Week 7, and 41.2% succeeded. Jordan Mason ran 8 times for 20 yards and Aaron Jones 5 times for 22. Murray's 22-yard scramble with 2:00 left in the half was the longest run, and the interception came on the next snap. Down 12-7 with 25 seconds left in the third, second and 10 at the Detroit 30, Mason lost 5 yards, -1.7 EPA and 7.3 points; a holding penalty had already erased his 29-yard run earlier in the quarter.

The pass defense got home early and gave ground late, and the sack count leads it: four sacks of Jared Goff, all before halftime, Andrew Van Ginkel in on 2.5 of them. Detroit's 29 pass plays were worth -0.14 a play, against -0.25 allowed through Week 7; on defense a negative number is good, and this was less of it than usual. Before the break Goff's 20 pass plays came to -5.8 EPA, and Minnesota intercepted him on third and 8 at the Detroit 39 in the second quarter. After it he completed 7 of 9 for 66 yards, was not sacked, and threw the winning 7-yard touchdown to Jameson Williams.

The run defense was Muffed, and the yardage says how badly: 232 yards on 37 rush plays, the most Minnesota has allowed in a game this season. Those plays were worth +2.0 EPA, +0.05 a play against -0.11 allowed through Week 7; on defense a positive number is bad, and 48.6% of the runs succeeded. The first half held: 16 runs for 66 yards and -6.1 EPA, with Jahmyr Gibbs stopped for a 3-yard loss on second and 2 at the Minnesota 4 and for a 2-yard loss on third and 1 at the Detroit 28. The second half did not: 21 runs for 166 yards and +8.1 EPA. Up 7-6 with 4:50 left in the third, first and 10 at the Minnesota 30, Gibbs ran up the middle for the touchdown, +2.7 EPA and 10.3 points of win probability for Detroit. He finished with 23 carries for 153 yards, and Sione Vaki added 65 on 11.

The game turned on the drive after the go-ahead score. From its own 31 with 8:39 left, Detroit ran on five of seven snaps for 57 yards: Gibbs for 17, Vaki for 12 and 10, Gibbs for 9 twice, the second on second and 1 to the Minnesota 7. Goff threw short left to Williams on the next play, and it was 19-15 with 4:35 left. From the Minnesota 28, Addison caught a 4-yarder, Mason gained a yard, and Murray's third-and-5 throw deep left for Addison fell incomplete. Gibbs ran for 14 and 8, Minnesota spent its three timeouts by 1:48, and Goff's 2-yard run on third and 1 at midfield ended it.

Last week's notebook asked whether a run game whose designed runs lost 6.87 expected points could do better, and whether Aaron Jones would be back from the injury on his 17-yard run to carry it. Jones was back, for 5 carries. The 16 designed runs, Murray's scramble set aside, lost 4.2 expected points on fewer chances. The one to watch next: whether a run defense that gave up 166 yards after halftime gets back to the -0.11 a play it allowed through Week 7.

That's your Vikings, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Vikings on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._