Broncos 28, Chiefs 24 — Week 8: Coleman's 51, a Stand at the 1

Denver beat Kansas City 28-24 at home on Sunday, seven weeks after losing 31-10 in Kansas City, and went to 6-2 with its fifth straight win. The Broncos trailed 24-13 with 13:13 left, when their win probability, the model's estimate of each side's chance to win, stood at 11.4%. They scored 15 points from there: Nate Adkins's 2-yard touchdown and a two-point catch by Jaylen Waddle, then Jonah Coleman's 5-yard run with 2:00 left. 10 drives produced 3 touchdowns, Wil Lutz's field goals from 39 and 45, and 4 three-and-outs. Neither side turned the ball over.

The passing game played well above its standard, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures it: 33 pass plays worth +6.3 EPA, +0.19 a play against -0.055 through Week 7. Bo Nix completed 20 of 32 for 222 yards and 2 touchdowns without an interception, and was sacked once, a George Karlaftis strip that Adam Trautman recovered. The value came in bursts: Waddle's 35-yarder on second and 18, Courtland Sutton's 23-yarder, Trautman's 22-yarder plus 15 more for a roughness penalty, and Coleman's 51-yarder. Both touchdown passes came on fourth and goal, to Waddle from the 1 and to Adkins from the 2.

The run game stayed near its standard, and success rate shows why it never carried the day: 10 of 22 rush plays, 45.5%, gained what the situation asked for, but they were worth -1.1 EPA, -0.05 a play against -0.041 through Week 7. Coleman ran 11 times for 41 yards and the go-ahead score, 6 of them successful. J.K. Dobbins ran 7 times for 13 yards, one successful, including an 8-yard loss to Karlaftis and Nohl Williams. After a pass interference call put the ball at the Kansas City 1 late in the half, Coleman, Nix and Coleman again were stopped for no gain before Nix found Waddle on fourth down.

The pass defense fell far short of its standard, and the yardage shows how far: Kansas City's 43 pass plays gained 321 yards and 3 touchdowns, 51% of them successful, for +10.8 EPA, +0.25 a play against -0.11 allowed through Week 7. On defense a positive number is bad. Mahomes completed 30 of 41. Up 7-6 midway through the second, third and 10 at the Kansas City 27, he threw short left to Emmett Johnson, who caught it 10 yards past the line and ran the other 63 for a touchdown, +7.0 EPA and 24.1 points of win probability. Johnson's 38-yarder before the half set up a field goal. Alex Singleton's sack on third and 2 at the Denver 30 late in the fourth forced the 54-yard try that missed.

The run defense held to its standard, and EPA per play allowed puts it there: Kansas City's 24 rush plays were worth +0.006 a play against +0.031 allowed through Week 7, for 90 yards and no touchdowns. Kenneth Walker, who ran 23 times for 173 yards against Denver in Week 1, ran 21 times for 69.

The game turned in the last 2:36. Up 24-21, Kansas City had driven to the Denver 30 when Singleton's sack pushed Harrison Butker to 54 yards, and the kick went wide right. On the next snap Nix threw short right to Coleman, who caught it a yard past the line and ran 50 more to the Kansas City 5: +3.8 EPA and 23.7 points of win probability. Coleman scored on the next play. Johnson's 44-yard kickoff return and Travis Kelce's 32-yard catch took the Chiefs to first and goal at the 4. Walker got 3, a pass fell incomplete, and JL Skinner stopped Walker at the 1 on third down with 9 seconds left. A false start made it fourth and goal from the 6, and Malcolm Roach sacked Mahomes at the 12 to end it, 37.5 points of win probability, the game's largest swing.

Last week's notebook asked whether a passing game with 30% of its pass plays successful would start winning the snaps in between, and whether the backs would find room. The success rate rose to 39%, but the value still came in bunches: four completions of 22 yards or more, two fourth-down touchdowns, and 2 conversions on 11 third downs. The backs split, Coleman successful on 6 of 11 carries and Dobbins on 1 of 7. The one to watch next: whether a pass defense that allowed +0.25 a play here, against -0.11 through Week 7, gets back to its standard.

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_Data via nflverse._