Justin Herbert — Week 8: 24 of 32, Two Picks

Justin Herbert completed passes at a better rate than at any point this season against the Rams, and two interceptions undid it: 24 of 32 for 257 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions and two sacks, plus 4 runs for 15 yards, in a 24-9 loss. Over 36 dropbacks he was worth -16.3 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position: -0.45 per dropback, his lowest this season. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was +4.3, his first positive game this season.

Both interceptions were short throws to the right for Charlie Kolar. Tied 0-0 with 7:22 left in the first quarter, third and 5 at the Rams 38, Quentin Lake picked off the first at the 36 and returned it 45 yards to the Chargers 19: -7.1 EPA and 21.1 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. The Rams kicked a field goal. Down 17-9 with 4:37 left in the third, first and 10 at his own 37, Trent McDuffie picked off the second at the 48 and returned it to the 22, -6.7 EPA and 10.4 points; the Rams scored two plays later for 24-9.

His best throws came early. Down 3-0, first and 10 at his own 35, he hit Ladd McConkey for 30 yards, +2.1 EPA and 8.6 points, and the drive ended in a field goal. In the second quarter his 15-yarder to Oronde Gadsden on third and 7 at the Rams 45, +2.0 EPA, set up another. Down 10-9 with 4 seconds left in the half, third and 5 at his own 45, he went deep right to McConkey for 54 yards, and time ran out with the ball at the Rams 1. Wesley Bailey sacked him for 11 yards in the third and Josaiah Stewart for 9 in the fourth.

The interceptions kept a pattern going. Through Week 6 he had -44.0 EPA on 219 dropbacks, -0.20 per dropback, a CPOE of -5.7, 5 touchdown passes, 8 interceptions and 21 sacks.

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_Data via nflverse._