Quentin Johnston

Quentin Johnston went from first-round bust talk to a per-game top-seventeen receiver last season. The catch: it was built on a touchdown rate that doesn't last, behind a teammate who's the real number one. He's the forty-third receiver off the board. The Muffed 2026 preview.

The 2025 season was a genuine step up: fifty-one catches on eighty-four targets for seven hundred thirty-five yards and eight touchdowns, thirteen-two a game, WR17 per game though WR35 in total. The signature was a five-catch, seventy-nine-yard, two-touchdown opener against Kansas City. After two quiet years, he finally produced.

The arc is a real climb: five-five a game as a rookie, eleven-six, and now thirteen-two. The former first-rounder is trending up.

Here's the caution the price has to weigh. His touchdown share is twenty-eight percent — top-quartile, the zone our fade rule docks by nearly two points a game. Eight touchdowns on fifty-one catches is a rate that regresses, and the WR17-per-game rate leans on it. His underlying volume — six targets a game — is a complementary load, not an alpha's. Strip the touchdown luck and the per-game rate comes down.

The situation, per the reports, is mixed: Keenan Allen is gone, which opens targets, and a new coordinator in Mike McDaniel arrives — but McDaniel's short, yards-after-catch scheme most favors slot man Ladd McConkey, who profiles as the clear alpha, with Johnston as the outside complement. More opportunity, but not the lead role.

The price: pick ninety-four and a half, the forty-third receiver. Verdict: WATCHLIST — the ascending arrow and vacated Keenan Allen targets argue up; the touchdown regression and McConkey's alpha role argue the WR17 rate won't repeat. Priced WR43, between his total finish and his per-game rate, it's roughly fair with real range. The counter for him: a rising former first-rounder with more targets available could break out. Against: the touchdowns regress and he's the number two. A genuine coin flip.

September watch: the touchdown rate — the regression is the whole question; and the target split with Ladd McConkey. Your guys, every week. Next preview's queued.