Bucky Irving — Week 8: 170 Yards in the Rain

Bucky Irving had his biggest yardage day of the season against the Falcons: 27 carries, 170 yards and a touchdown in a 16-0 win at home in the rain, 5 more yards than his 165 against Dallas in Week 5. Expected points added (EPA), what a carry was worth given down, distance and field position, had him at -4.6, -0.17 a carry, and 10 of his 27 carries were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for.

One snap took the value away. Up 3-0 in the first quarter, second and 7 at the Atlanta 15, Baker Mayfield fumbled, recovered and pitched to Irving, who ran to the 1 before Jessie Bates knocked the ball loose and it went out of bounds in the end zone, a touchback: -5.2 EPA and 10.7 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. His other 26 carries were worth +0.6.

The run that defined the day came up 9-0 midway through the third quarter. Second and 1 at the Tampa Bay 19, he went around left end for 46 yards to the Atlanta 35, +2.8 EPA. Kenny Gainwell's 28-yarder took the ball to the 6 two plays later, and Irving finished it on second and 4 from the 4, through the right side, for the game's only touchdown. He opened the scoring the same way, with a 24-yard run up the middle on Tampa Bay's first snap that set up the first field goal.

The rate fell short of his season. Through Week 7 he had 120 carries for 558 yards, four touchdowns and +4.5 EPA, +0.04 a carry, and a 43.3% success rate; here it was 37%. The yards came in big pieces: his 46, 24, 13 and 12-yard runs made up 95 of the 170.

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_Data via nflverse._