Jahmyr Gibbs — Week 8: 116 Yards After Halftime

Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 153 yards against the Vikings, his second-most this season behind 156 in Week 1, on 23 carries with a touchdown, and caught 2 of 4 targets for 15 yards. It was two games in one. His 11 first-half carries gained 37 yards and were worth -6.1 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position; his 12 after halftime gained 116 and were worth +5.2.

The touchdown came down 7-6 with 4:50 left in the third quarter. One snap after Amon-Ra St. Brown ran 10 yards on third and 8, first and 10 at the Minnesota 30, Gibbs went up the middle and scored: +2.7 EPA and 10.3 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. His two-point run around right end failed, leaving it 12-7.

The fourth quarter was his: 6 carries for 63 yards. Down 15-12 with 8:39 left, he opened the winning drive with 17 yards from the Detroit 31, then ran for 9 twice, the second on second and 1 to the Minnesota 7; Jameson Williams caught the touchdown on the next snap. Up 19-15 from the Detroit 17 with 2:53 left, he ran for 14, 8 and 6 as Minnesota spent its timeouts. With 12 seconds left in the first half, on second and 14 at the Minnesota 38, his 19-yard run set up Jake Bates's 37-yard field goal.

The first half had the stops that cost. On second and 2 at the Minnesota 4 in the first quarter he lost 3 yards, and the drive ended in a field goal. On third and 1 at the Detroit 28 in the second he lost 2, -2.3 EPA, and Detroit punted.

The total came out close to his season rate. His 23 carries were worth -0.9 EPA, -0.04 a carry, and 10 were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, 43.5%. Through Week 7 he had 134 carries for 620 yards, 7 touchdowns and -2.1 EPA, -0.02 a carry, with 50% successful.

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_Data via nflverse._