Raiders 30, Bills 33 — Week 6: Tucker's Two Scores Fall Short

Las Vegas lost 33-30 at home to Buffalo, and the passing game kept it close after the rest of the team let it slip. The Raiders trailed 23-13 after three quarters and tied it on Tre Tucker's 11-yard touchdown with 8:13 left, then gave up James Cook's go-ahead touchdown and a Tyler Bass field goal. Tucker's 44-yard touchdown with 1:39 left made it a three-point game, and Khalil Shakir caught Matt Gay's onside kick. 10 drives produced 3 touchdowns, 3 field goals and 3 three-and-outs, and the Raiders' one interception was the game's only turnover.

The passing game was the best thing Las Vegas did, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, puts a number on it. Its 41 pass plays were worth +11.5 EPA, +0.28 a play against +0.17 through Week 5, and 48.8% succeeded. Kirk Cousins completed 23 of 41 for 313 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, and Buffalo never sacked him. Michael Mayer caught 7 of 9 targets for 95 and Brock Bowers 4 of 9 for 70. Third down is where it lived, 7 of 12 converted. The tying score came on third and 8 at the Buffalo 11, down 23-16 in the fourth: Cousins threw short right and Tucker took it in, +3.15 EPA and 21.1 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. The cost was one throw: second and 12 at his own 29, down 16-13 in the third, Cousins threw short middle for Mayer and Dorian Williams intercepted it, -5.03 EPA. Buffalo turned it into a touchdown.

The run game was Muffed, and its success rate tells it: only 30% of 20 rush plays succeeded, worth -5.7 EPA, -0.29 a play against -0.22 through Week 5, for 65 yards. Ashton Jeanty ran 10 times for 22 and scored from 1 yard in the first quarter; Mike Washington Jr. ran 9 times for 43. The run that hurt came early in the fourth, down 23-13: second and 1 at the Buffalo 1, Jeanty went up the middle and Greg Gaines dropped him for a 3-yard loss. After a third-down incompletion, Gay kicked a 23-yard field goal.

The pass defense gave back nearly everything the offense earned, and EPA allowed per play shows how far it fell from its standard: Buffalo's 35 pass plays were worth +10.7, +0.31 a play against +0.09 allowed through Week 5. On defense, a positive number is bad. Josh Allen completed 23 of 33 for 255 yards and 2 touchdowns without an interception, and 51.4% of the pass plays succeeded. Dalton Kincaid caught 7 of 8 targets for 38 and Keon Coleman 4 for 59, including a 12-yard touchdown on third and 8. The rush got home twice: Quay Walker sacked Allen on third and 3 at the Las Vegas 21 on the opening drive, holding Buffalo to a 44-yard field goal, and Kwity Paye took him down for 8 on third and 9 late in the second quarter. The defense stopped 6 of 10 third downs but allowed 3 touchdowns on 13 red-zone snaps.

The run defense slipped from its usual level, and EPA per play measures the gap: Buffalo's 26 rush plays were worth -0.01 a play against -0.10 allowed through Week 5. Negative is the good direction here, so this was the worse side of its baseline. They gained 106 yards and 42.3% succeeded. Cook carried 22 times for 95 and the go-ahead touchdown.

The game turned with 4:56 left and the score tied 23-23. On third and 3 at the Las Vegas 29, Allen threw short left to Cook, who was pushed out at the 3 after 26 yards, +2.69 EPA and 14.8 points of win probability to Buffalo. Cook scored from 3 yards on the next snap. Las Vegas answered with three straight incompletions from its own 18 and a punt, and Bass's 38-yarder made it 33-23 with 2:00 left, before Tucker's 44-yard score.

Last week's notebook asked whether Jeanty's runs would find yards. They did not: 10 carries for 22, with a 3-yard loss at the 1. The one to watch next: whether a run game at -0.29 EPA a play, below a season mark of -0.22 that was already poor, can finish drives after 2 touchdowns on 13 red-zone snaps, and whether a pass defense allowing +0.31 a play against its +0.09 standard was one bad afternoon.

That's your Raiders, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Raiders on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._