Bills 33, Raiders 30 — Week 6: Cook's Catch Sets Up the Winner

Buffalo won 33-30 in Las Vegas and won the turnover battle in a game decided by three points: none lost, one forced. The Bills led 23-13 after three quarters, let the Raiders tie it with 8:13 left, then went ahead for good on James Cook's 3-yard touchdown with 4:49 to play. Tyler Bass made all four field goals, from 44, 28, 47 and 38 yards. Nine drives brought 3 touchdowns, 4 field goals and one three-and-out. After Kirk Cousins' 44-yard touchdown to Tre Tucker cut it to three, Khalil Shakir fielded the onside kick and Josh Allen knelt it out.

The passing game was efficient from start to finish, and its success rate measures that: 51.4% of 35 pass plays succeeded, meaning they gained what the down and distance asked for. Those plays were worth +10.7 expected points added (EPA), the value of a play given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, or +0.31 a play against +0.24 through Week 5. Allen completed 23 of 33 for 255 yards and 2 touchdowns with no interceptions, and was sacked twice. Dalton Kincaid caught 7 of 8 targets for 38, Keon Coleman 4 for 59, Cook 3 for 58 and Shakir 4 for 34. Shakir's 9-yard touchdown on second and 6 put Buffalo ahead 13-7 in the second quarter. Coleman's came right after the interception: third and 8 at the Las Vegas 12, up 16-13 in the third, Allen threw short middle and Coleman scored, +3.09 EPA and a 10-point lead. Third downs were harder, 4 of 10.

The run game fell well short of its own season, and EPA per play shows the gap: 26 rush plays were worth -0.01 each against +0.19 through Week 5. They still gained 106 yards, and 42.3% succeeded. Cook carried 22 times for 95, including an 11-yarder on second and 8 in the third and the 3-yard touchdown that won it; Allen ran 5 times for 1.

The pass defense did not get back to its standard, and EPA allowed per play says so: Las Vegas's 41 pass plays were worth +11.5, +0.28 a play against +0.20 allowed through Week 5. On defense, a positive number is bad. Cousins threw for 313 yards and 2 touchdowns without being sacked, and Tucker caught 5 of 7 targets for 97 and both scores. The Raiders converted 7 of 12 third downs. One snap rescued it: second and 12 at the Las Vegas 29, up 16-13 in the third, Cousins threw short middle for Michael Mayer and Dorian Williams intercepted it at the 32, -5.03 EPA to Las Vegas. Coleman's touchdown followed.

The run defense was the best unit on the field, and success rate shows it: only 30% of Las Vegas's 20 rush plays succeeded, worth -5.7 EPA, -0.29 a play against +0.03 allowed through Week 5. On defense, a big negative is good. The Raiders gained 65 yards, and Ashton Jeanty ran 10 times for 22. The stop that mattered came early in the fourth quarter, up 23-13. Las Vegas had first and goal at the 2 and reached second and 1 at the 1; Jeanty went up the middle and Greg Gaines dropped him for a 3-yard loss. That run cost the Raiders 1.62 expected points and 6.4 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Cousins missed on third and 4, and Las Vegas settled for a 23-yard field goal.

The game turned with 4:56 left and the score tied 23-23. Earlier on the drive, Kincaid's 14-yard catch on second and 5 had moved Buffalo to the Las Vegas 36. On third and 3 at the 29, Allen threw short left to Cook, who was pushed out at the 3 after 26 yards, +2.69 EPA and 14.8 points of win probability. Cook scored on the next snap. The defense then forced three straight incompletions and a punt, and Bass's 38-yarder made it 33-23 with 2:00 left.

Last week's notebook asked whether the pass defense would get back toward its early-season standard. Not yet: +0.28 a play allowed against +0.20 through Week 5, and 313 passing yards to Cousins. The one to watch next: whether a run game at -0.01 EPA a play, against +0.19 through Week 5, gets back to its own level, and whether the pass defense finds more third-down stops than the 5 of 12 it managed here.

That's your Bills, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Bills on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._