Browns 13, Ravens 10 — Week 6: Szmyt Wins It on the Re-Kick

Cleveland beat Baltimore 13-10 at home, and the defense won it from 10 points down. The Ravens scored on their first two drives and then managed nothing after the first quarter. The Browns forced the game's only turnover, tied it with 8:37 left, and won it with no time on the clock: Keyon Martin blocked Andre Szmyt's 42-yard try, but Martin was offside, and Szmyt made the 37-yarder that followed.

The passing game was underwater for most of the day, and expected points added (EPA) shows how far. EPA measures what a play is worth given down, distance and field position, against what the situation was already worth. Cleveland's 31 pass plays came to -6.9 EPA, -0.22 a play, against -0.01 through Week 5, and only 35.5% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Deshaun Watson completed 16 of 26 for 164 yards and no touchdowns and was sacked five times. Then it delivered on third down when it had to. Third and 4 at the Baltimore 29, down 10-3 in the fourth, Watson found KC Concepcion for 15 yards, worth 10.0 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Jerry Jeudy caught all 4 of his targets for 69 yards.

The run game beat its own standard, and its success rate tells it: 51.7% of 29 rush plays succeeded. They totaled -0.2 EPA, about break-even, against -0.19 a play through Week 5, for 93 yards and the touchdown. Jaleel McLaughlin ran 9 times for 41, Watson 8 for 29, and Audric Estimé 9 for 19 with the score from 2 yards.

The pass defense gave up chunks and little else. EPA per play says Baltimore's 34 pass plays were worth +0.14 each, against -0.06 allowed through Week 5; on defense a positive number is the bad direction. But only 32.4% succeeded, and three plays did most of the damage: Josh Cuevas for 29 plus a roughing-the-passer flag on Maliek Collins, Zay Flowers for 17 on third and 10, and Flowers for 31 on third and 11. Tyler Huntley was sacked three times, by Quincy Williams, Collins and Isaiah McGuire.

The run defense smashed Baltimore's ground game, and its EPA allowed leads the case: 23 rush plays worth -10.0, -0.43 a play, against +0.04 allowed through Week 5. Here negative is good. The Ravens gained 87 yards, 34.8% of carries succeeded, and none scored. Derrick Henry ran 17 times for 58. The stand that set the tone came in the first quarter at 0-0. Baltimore had second and 1 at the Cleveland 1, and Daniel Thomas stopped Henry for no gain. On third and 1, Henry went right guard and Emmanuel McNeil-Warren dropped him for a 1-yard loss, -2.5 EPA and 4.8 points of win probability. Huntley hit Cuevas for the touchdown on fourth and 2, but the line had made Baltimore use its last down to get there.

The game turned with 12:45 left, down 10-3. On first and 5 at the Baltimore 28, Henry ran left tackle for 5 yards, Carson Schwesinger forced the fumble, and Tyson Campbell recovered at the Baltimore 35. That snap cost the Ravens 5.0 EPA and 9.2 points of win probability. Concepcion's third-down catch followed, a pass-interference flag on Martin on third and 6 at the 10 kept it alive, and Estimé scored on second and 2, worth 12.8 points. After Szmyt missed from 48 with 3:44 left, the last drive came down to third and 5 at the Cleveland 38 with 42 seconds left: Watson went deep middle to Jeudy for 33 yards to the Baltimore 29, +2.2 EPA and 16.8 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game.

The defense got off the field on 10 of Baltimore's 16 third downs and allowed 1 touchdown on 9 red-zone snaps. The offense converted 5 of 16 third downs, and 4 of its 11 drives were three-and-outs. The one to watch next: whether a passing game that took five sacks and averaged -0.22 EPA a play can get above its -0.01 baseline, or whether the run defense has to carry it again.

That's your Browns, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Browns on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._