Broncos 17, Seahawks 14 — Week 6: Two Picks, Five Sacks, Lutz From 53

Denver beat Seattle 17-14 in overtime at home on Thursday night, and the defense won a game its offense could not put away. The Broncos took the ball away three times and gave it away zero, a margin of +3. They led 14-3 at halftime, did not score again in regulation, and watched Jason Myers tie it with a 34-yard field goal with 7 seconds left. Ja'Quan McMillian's interception in overtime set up Wil Lutz's 53-yarder with 4:57 to play. Denver is 4-2.

The passing game was Muffed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures it. Its 29 pass plays were worth -6.1 EPA, -0.21 a play against -0.07 through Week 5, and only 27.6% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Bo Nix completed 17 of 27 for 107 yards and no touchdowns. What worked came on the opening touchdown drive: a 9-yard throw to Evan Engram on third and 8, a 9-yarder to Courtland Sutton on third and 6 to the Seattle 18, and RJ Harvey's 12-yard catch on second and 8 to the 4. Jaylen Waddle caught 4 of 7 targets for 24. Seattle sacked Nix twice in the fourth, and Nick Emmanwori's on third and 10 with 4:15 left, up 14-11, cost 10 yards and 9.4 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win.

The charting says Nix kept the ball safe. None of his 27 throws was interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, after 7 in 162 through Week 5. 18 were catchable, 66.7%, against 64.2%, and his receivers dropped none. Four were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 14.8% against 11.1%. Seattle sent five or more rushers on only 7 of 30 dropbacks, 23.3%, against the 34.3% Denver saw through Week 5.

The run game scored both touchdowns and did little else, and its success rate shows it: 29.6% of 27 rush plays succeeded, worth -2.0 EPA, -0.07 a play against -0.10 through Week 5, for 75 yards. Seattle gave it room on paper, six or fewer in the box on 23 of 26 designed runs, 88.5%, against 55% through Week 5, and those runs gained 72 yards. J.K. Dobbins ran 17 times for 41 and scored from 4 yards on second and 4 early in the second quarter. Harvey ran 6 times for 25, converted third and 1 with a 7-yard run, and took a direct snap 1 yard for the second touchdown after a pass-interference penalty on Devon Witherspoon put the ball at the 1. The run of the night was Tyler Badie's only carry: fourth and 3 at the Seattle 48, down 3-0 in the first, 6 yards up the middle, +2.9 EPA and 9.1 points of win probability. It kept alive the drive Dobbins finished.

The pass defense carried the night, and the EPA allowed says so: Seattle's 54 pass plays were worth -7.7, -0.14 a play against -0.09 allowed through Week 5; on defense a negative number is good. Sam Darnold completed 27 of 51 for 278 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions, and was sacked five times. McMillian and Que Robinson had one each on the first drive, Jonah Elliss one, and two were split, Zach Allen with Nik Bonitto and Justin Strnad with Malcolm Roach. Elliss's came on third and 7 at the Denver 24 in the third, up 14-3, and Myers then hit the right upright from 47. The charting has Denver making the throws harder: 30 of Darnold's 49 were catchable, 61.2%, against 67.1% for opponents through Week 5, and 3 were interception-worthy, 6.1%, against 4.3%. Denver got there without extra help, sending five or more on 19 of 56 dropbacks, 33.9%, against its 37.6% through Week 5. The leak was Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 12 catches on 16 targets for 134 yards.

The run defense came in under its own standard, and EPA per play measures the gap: Seattle's 26 rush plays were worth -0.4 EPA, -0.02 a play, against +0.05 allowed through Week 5. Here, too, negative is the good direction. They still gained 113 yards, and 42.3% succeeded. Denver played lighter than usual, six or fewer in the box on 13 of 24 designed runs, 54.2%, against 40.1% through Week 5, and those runs gained 94. The snap that mattered came with 2:34 left in the half, up 14-3: second and 10 at the Denver 35, Rashid Shaheed ran left end, Bonitto forced the fumble and Strnad recovered at the 34, -4.1 EPA to Seattle. The one rushing touchdown was George Holani's 1-yard run with 5:47 left, set up by Darnold's 18-yard scramble on third and 10.

The game turned with 1:31 left in regulation, and it nearly turned back. Smith-Njigba's 32-yard catch on second and 16 had moved Seattle into Denver territory, 18.6 points of win probability. On third and 1 at the Denver 39, no huddle, Darnold threw short left for Tory Horton, and Kris Abrams-Draine intercepted it at the 31. That snap was worth -3.8 EPA to Seattle and 35.2 points of win probability, the largest swing of the night. Denver could not close it: two Dobbins runs, a miss to Harvey on third and 8, a punt. Cooper Kupp's 17-yard catch put Seattle at the Denver 23, and Myers tied it. In overtime McMillian intercepted Darnold on third and 7 at the Seattle 28, a throw for Shaheed, at the Seattle 43. Nix was stopped on third and 2, and Lutz kicked the winner. Denver converted 3 of 14 third downs, all three in the first half, and scored 2 touchdowns on 5 red-zone snaps; the defense got off the field on 10 of Seattle's 17 third downs.

The scheme added screens and motion. Screens rose to 5 of 30 dropbacks, 16.7%, from 9.3% through Week 5, and motion to 42 of 76 charted plays, 55.3%, from 45.7%. Play-action held near its usual rate, 7 of 30, 23.3% against 21.5%; Nix went 5 of 7 for 35 off the fake and 12 of 20 for 72 without it. Run-pass options came on 5 snaps, 8.9%, against 7.1%. Nix left the pocket on 11 of 30 dropbacks, after 46 of 172.

Last week's notebook asked whether the pass rush would keep getting home without the extra rushers, and whether the offense could convert more than 1 of 12 on third down. The rush answered yes: five sacks, with five or more sent on 33.9% of dropbacks, below its rate through Week 5. Third down barely moved, 3 of 14, none after halftime, and 6 of 12 drives were three-and-outs. The one to watch next: whether a passing game that found 107 yards against a defense sending extra rushers on 23.3% of dropbacks can stretch the field, and whether the takeaways, three on Thursday, keep covering for it.

That's your Broncos, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Broncos on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._