Week 9 ran from Thursday, November 5, when Jacksonville won 33-10 in Baltimore, to Monday night, when Buffalo won 23-6 in Minnesota. Pittsburgh and Tennessee had byes, so it was 15 games. Six were decided by eight points or fewer, and one went to overtime: New Orleans beat Cleveland 23-22 when a Cleveland two-point try failed with 1:00 left.
Last week's issue ran the race through a ruler built for the halfway point and graded five stories. All five played this week. Minnesota lost at home and scored six points. Tampa Bay intercepted Caleb Williams four times and lost in Chicago on a field goal with three seconds left. Denver won in Carolina and is 7-2. Cleveland lost in overtime. The Chargers lost 44-22 to Houston and are 0-8.
Two of them share a shape with a third team: a defense near the top of the league and an offense near the bottom. Minnesota's defense ranks second and its offense 31st. Tampa Bay's defense ranks first and its offense 28th. Seattle, 5-4 after a 17-3 win over Arizona, ranks fifth and 23rd. So this issue asks the question that shape raises: can a great defense carry a bad offense to January?
The ruler is the same ten seasons, 2016-2025, cut one week later: every team's record and play through Week 9, set against how the rest of its season went and whether it played a postseason game. The measure of play is expected points added (EPA) per play, how many points each snap added to the expected score. On defense it is EPA allowed, so a negative number is good. Net EPA is offense minus defense.
Here is the ruler.
- Offense carries; defense fades. A team's offense through Week 9 correlates with its offense the rest of the way at 0.54, its defense at 0.36, where 1.00 would be a perfect guide.
- The top three defenses after Week 9 were still top five the rest of the way 8 times in 30. The top three offenses: 14 times in 30.
- Top-eight defense, bottom-half offense: 18 playoff teams in 43, and a .488 win rate the rest of the way. Flip it, top-eight offense and bottom-half defense: 25 in 39, .582.
- Top-eight defense, bottom-eight offense: 4 playoff teams in 19, .375 the rest of the way.
- By record after Week 9: one win or fewer, 0 playoff teams in 21. Two wins, 1 in 38. Three, 9 in 52. Four, 13 in 52. Five, 31 in 57. Six, 45 in 52. Seven, 20 in 21.
The record still carries the most weight at this stage. But inside the play, the ruler says to trust an offense before a defense, and to be wary of a team whose offense is the reason it is close.
Minnesota scored six at home and is still 6-2. No six-win team in ten seasons had an offense this low.
Monday night was the worst offensive game any team has played this season. Minnesota's 45 plays were worth -33.8 EPA, -0.75 a play. Over the ten seasons before this one, 5 team-games in 5,278 were worse.
Carson Wentz started at quarterback and went 8 of 25 for 81 yards with two interceptions. The first big swing came in the first quarter, 0-0, first and 10 at the Minnesota 47: Wentz's throw for Justin Jefferson was ruled incomplete, Buffalo challenged, and the replay made it a fumble, recovered by Greg Rousseau at the Minnesota 44. It was worth -6.0 EPA and 13.6 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Buffalo kicked a field goal from it.
The game turned on the first drive after halftime. Down 10-6, a pass interference flag moved Minnesota to the Buffalo 37, and on the next snap Wentz threw deep right for T.J. Hockenson and Dorian Williams intercepted at the 11, -4.2 EPA. Late in the third, down 13-6, Terrel Bernard intercepted a short throw meant for Jefferson. Jefferson caught 3 of 11 targets for 58 yards. James Cook ran 31 times for 107 yards and the only touchdown of the second half, and Josh Allen went 21 of 31 for 234 yards, a touchdown and an interception.
Minnesota's defense held Buffalo to 23 points, and Buffalo had scored 233 in its first seven games. That is the whole Minnesota season in one game. The Vikings have allowed 116 points, the fewest in the league, and scored 146, 18.3 a game. Their offense is at -0.16 EPA a play, 31st. Only the Chargers' is lower.
Issue 13 said six-win teams with a bottom-half offense after Week 8 made the playoffs 3 times in 6, and that the lowest-ranked offense on any six-win team was 23rd. Cut a week later, the record is wider and Minnesota is further outside it. Of 84 teams with six or more wins after Week 9 from 2016 to 2025, the lowest-ranked offense was 24th. The fewest points a game among them was 18.7, the 2017 Panthers. Minnesota ranks 31st and scores 18.3.
The record is on its side. Teams that were 6-2 after Week 9 reached the playoffs 28 times in 32. Twelve six-win teams had a bottom-half offense, and 8 made it, winning .511 of their remaining games. The worry is that none of them looked like this one. Minnesota's place in the race comes from the defense, and defense is the half that carries least. It visits Green Bay next.
Defense is the half that fades. Seattle and Tampa Bay lean on the part of a team least likely to hold.
The ten-season numbers on this are not subtle. Of the 30 teams ranked in the top three on defense after Week 9, 8 stayed in the top five the rest of the season, and 14 finished outside the top ten. The ten teams ranked first on defense had a median rank of 7.5 the rest of the way; the ten ranked first on offense, 2.
That is why the box of top-eight defense and bottom-eight offense is a poor place to be. Its 19 teams made the playoffs 4 times, and none of the 19 had six wins after Week 9. Two of the four were the 2023 Browns and the 2024 Broncos, each 5-3 or 5-4, each with a defense that stayed in the top five. Twelve of the 19 had a defense that fell out of the top five over the rest of the season.
Seattle beat Arizona 17-3 with Drew Lock at quarterback, 19 of 28 for 175 yards and a touchdown. The defense allowed -0.19 EPA a play and three points, and the Cardinals did not turn it over. It was Seattle's second game this season allowing 3. The Seahawks are 5-4, fifth on defense, 23rd on offense and 11th in net EPA. Teams that were 5-4 after Week 9 made the playoffs 10 times in 18; the 12 in the top half of net EPA made it 6 times. Seattle visits Las Vegas next, and the Raiders' defense ranks 31st.
Pittsburgh, 6-2 and off this week, is in the milder version of the shape: seventh on defense and 19th on offense. Six-win teams are 45 in 52, and the ruler's caution applies at the margin, not to the standings.
Chicago turned it over five times and won. Turnovers are the number least likely to repeat.
Tampa Bay's defense took the ball away five times in Chicago: four Caleb Williams interceptions and a forced fumble. Over 2016-2025, teams that forced five turnovers in a game lost 6 times in 74. Tampa Bay lost 27-24.
It led nowhere early. Chicago went up 14-0 in the first quarter on two Williams touchdowns, 9 yards to Rome Odunze and 56 to Luther Burden III on third and 8. Tykee Smith and Zyon McCollum intercepted Williams on consecutive Chicago possessions in the second quarter, and Tampa Bay turned them into nothing: a fourth-and-1 stop of Baker Mayfield at his own 35, then a punt. Down 17-13 late in the third, Alex Anzalone intercepted Williams at the Chicago 43. On the second snap of the drive that followed, second and 9, Mayfield threw short right for Cade Otton, and Jaylon Johnson intercepted and ran 67 yards for a touchdown: -9.9 EPA and 28.0 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game.
Tampa Bay came back anyway. Down 24-16 with 3:48 left, Rueben Bain Jr. forced Burden's fumble after a 4-yard catch, and Bucky Irving scored from the 6. Mayfield ran in the two-point try for 24-24 with 2:51 left. Chicago took over with two minutes left, and on second and 9 at his own 46, Williams threw deep left to Colston Loveland for 38 yards to the 16. Cairo Santos kicked a 38-yarder with three seconds left.
Williams finished 22 of 37 for 279 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions. Chicago has 19 giveaways in nine games, tied for the most in the league, and is 7-2. No team with seven or more wins after Week 9 in the last ten seasons had more than 15.
Here is why neither number should change your mind much. A team's turnover margin through Week 9 correlates with its margin the rest of the way at 0.12; its giveaways at 0.20, its takeaways at 0.10. Next to the 0.54 for offense, that is close to nothing. Chicago's turnovers have cost it less than they usually would, and Tampa Bay's takeaways have bought it less, and neither is a trait the ruler expects to last. The four seven-win teams with a negative turnover margin after Week 9 all made the playoffs.
Tampa Bay is 3-6 with a point differential of +24, the first-ranked defense, the 28th-ranked offense and the ninth-ranked net EPA. It has won 2.2 fewer games than its points scored and allowed predict, the furthest behind in the league. Teams that were 3-6 after Week 9 made the playoffs 3 times in 19, and the four of them in the top half of net EPA made it twice. One team in ten seasons was further behind its points at this stage: the 2025 Texans, 3-5, first on defense and ninth in net EPA, who won their last nine. Tampa Bay has a bye, then eight games.
Denver is 7-2 and 18th in net EPA. No seven-win team in ten seasons ranked lower than 15th.
Denver won 26-21 in Carolina on a defensive stand at the goal line and a strip-sack. Carolina led 14-13 late in the third and had first and goal at the Denver 1. Bryce Young threw short left for Tommy Tremble, the play was ruled incomplete, Denver challenged, and the replay gave Devon Key an interception in the end zone: -7.0 EPA and 25.6 points of win probability. Jonah Coleman ran 9 yards for the go-ahead touchdown early in the fourth, and Bo Nix threw 26 yards to Pat Bryant on third and 5 for 26-14. Young threw a 4-yard touchdown to Tetairoa McMillan with 3:08 left. With 1:24 left, first and 10 at the Denver 36, Nik Bonitto sacked Young, forced the fumble and recovered it himself, a 32.5-point swing in win probability.
Nix went 25 of 37 for 237 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Young went 28 of 39 for 276 yards, three touchdowns and the interception at the 1.
Issue 13 said Denver's record was real and its play was not yet, and both halves held. At 7-2, Denver is in the safest group the ruler has: 7-2 teams after Week 9 made the playoffs 14 times in 15, and seven-win teams 20 times in 21. But the Broncos are 16th on offense, 14th on defense and 18th in net EPA, and among 32 teams with seven or more wins after Week 9 from 2016 to 2025, the lowest net rank was 15th. The three closest, the 2020 Bills, the 2019 Seahawks and the 2022 Vikings, all made it, and all had won more than two games more than their points predicted.
Denver has won 2.2 more than its points predict, the most in the league; its point differential is +12. Four teams in ten seasons were at least that far ahead after Week 9, and all four made the playoffs. Wins already won stay won. Denver has a bye in Week 10.
Cleveland lost on a two-point try in overtime. At 5-4, the Browns still have a coin flip.
Cleveland's offense moved the ball in New Orleans, mostly in chunks. Shedeur Sanders went 19 of 31 for 297 yards and two touchdowns without an interception and was sacked five times. Down 9-6 with 5:33 left, first and 10 at his own 36, he threw deep right to KC Concepcion for a 64-yard touchdown, 34.7 points of win probability. New Orleans answered with a six-play drive from its own 45, Tyler Shough throwing 33 yards to Chris Olave on the way, and Audric Estime scored from the 2 with a minute left. Sanders hit Jerry Jeudy for 30 yards, and Andre Szmyt kicked a 51-yard field goal with 12 seconds left for 16-16.
In overtime Shough threw a 15-yard touchdown to Juwan Johnson on third and 4. Cleveland got the ball back, and with 1:11 left, third and 7 at the New Orleans 39, Sanders threw short right to Harold Fannin Jr., who went 39 yards for the touchdown. Down 23-22, Cleveland went for two. Sanders's throw for Denzel Boston fell incomplete.
The run game gave Cleveland little: -0.35 EPA a run. A fourth-and-1 at the New Orleans 1 before halftime, Quinshon Judkins up the middle, was stopped for no gain.
Issue 13 called Cleveland a coin flip with the record on its side, and the coin is still in the air. Teams that were 5-4 after Week 9 made the playoffs 10 times in 18. The six of them in the bottom half of net EPA made it 4 times. The Browns are 23rd in net EPA and have been outscored by 35. Two 5-4 teams in ten seasons had been outscored by that much: the 2018 Dolphins, at -38, who missed, and the 2025 Panthers, at -35, who made it. Cleveland hosts Houston next, and the Texans scored 44 on Sunday.
Real or Noise
Calibrated verdicts on the week's stories. These grade the story, not the team.
- "Minnesota's defense will carry it to January": the record, probably; the method, without precedent. 6-2 teams after Week 9 made the playoffs 28 times in 32. Of 84 six-win teams in ten seasons, none had an offense ranked lower than 24th or scored fewer than 18.7 a game. Minnesota is 31st and scores 18.3.
- "Tampa Bay is finished at 3-6": not yet, but close. 3-6 teams made it 3 times in 19, and the four with a top-half net EPA made it twice. Tampa Bay is ninth, and the 2025 Texans came back from further behind their points.
- "Chicago's turnovers will catch up with it": noise as a forecast. Giveaways through Week 9 correlate with giveaways after it at 0.20. The 19 are already counted, and seven-win teams after Week 9 made it 20 times in 21.
- "Denver is a contender": the standings, yes; the play, not yet. 7-2 teams made it 14 times in 15, but no seven-win team in ten seasons ranked below 15th in net EPA, and Denver is 18th.
- "The Chargers can still turn it around": noise. Six teams were winless after Week 9 from 2016 to 2025, and none made the playoffs. Widen it to one win or fewer and it is 0 of 21.
The Receipts
Verified numbers worth keeping in your pocket.
- Minnesota's -0.75 EPA per play against Buffalo was the worst offensive game of 2026. From 2016 to 2025, 5 team-games in 5,278 were worse.
- The top three defenses after Week 9 were still top five the rest of the season 8 times in 30; the top three offenses, 14 times in 30. 2016-2025.
- Teams that forced five turnovers in a game lost 6 times in 74, and a team's turnover margin through Week 9 correlates with the rest of its season at 0.12. 2016-2025. Tampa Bay forced five on Sunday and lost.
Read more
- Buffalo in Minnesota, Minnesota's side, James Cook and Justin Jefferson
- Chicago's 27-24, Caleb Williams, Tampa Bay's side, Baker Mayfield and Bucky Irving
- Denver in Carolina, Bo Nix, Jonah Coleman, Carolina's side and Bryce Young
- Cleveland in New Orleans, Shedeur Sanders, New Orleans's side and Tyler Shough
- Seattle's 17-3 and Arizona's side
- Houston's 44 against the Chargers, C.J. Stroud and the Chargers' side
- The boards behind this issue: team EPA and quarterback EPA
- Last week's issue: How much of the playoff race is already decided?
Follow the players you care about on Muffed, across all your leagues, and every Wednesday their weeks and the Read land in one email.
Next week: Washington visits the Giants on Thursday, Minnesota visits Green Bay, Houston visits Cleveland, Seattle visits Las Vegas, Pittsburgh visits Cincinnati, and the Chargers visit Baltimore on Monday night; Chicago, Denver, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay have byes.
Methodology: Week 9 of 2026 is the 15 games from Thursday, November 5 through Monday, November 9; Pittsburgh and Tennessee had byes. Through Week 9, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Minnesota, Miami, New Orleans, the Giants, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Tennessee, Washington, Carolina and the Chargers have played eight games, everyone else nine. Team offense and defense are EPA per play on regular-season plays whose type is a pass or a run (scrambles included, penalty no-plays excluded), offense as the possession team and defense as EPA allowed; net EPA is offense minus defense; ranks are among all 32 teams over Weeks 1-9 together. A single-game figure is the same measure over that game's plays. Records, scores and point differentials are from nflverse's schedule file; a one-score game is decided by eight points or fewer. Expected wins are the Pythagorean expectation, points scored to the 2.37 power over the sum of points scored and allowed each to the 2.37 power, times games played; wins ahead of or behind the points are actual wins, ties as half, minus that. The ruler is 2016-2025, 320 team-seasons: each team's record, points and per-play offense, defense and net EPA over its regular-season games in Weeks 1-9 (eight or nine games, depending on its bye), ranked among the 32 teams of its season, against its record and per-play offense and defense from Week 10 on, ranked the same way, and whether it played a postseason game. Seasons before 2020 had 16 games and 12 playoff teams, later ones 17 and 14, and the rates pool them. "Top half" is a rank of 1 to 16, "bottom eight" 25 to 32. Correlations are Pearson across the 320 team-seasons. Turnovers are interceptions plus fumbles lost from play-by-play, every regular-season play, for every team-game from 2016; a team's takeaways are its opponent's giveaways. The team-game EPA comparison covers all 5,278 regular-season team-games from 2016 to 2025. Player lines are nflverse's weekly player stats; plays are retold from nflverse play-by-play. No charting figures are used this week. Data via nflverse.