C.J. Stroud — Week 9: 384 Yards, Five Touchdowns

C.J. Stroud had his most passing yards and touchdown passes of the season against the Chargers: 21 of 35 for 384 yards, five touchdowns and an interception, sacked once, plus 2 scrambles for 20 yards in a 44-22 win. Over 38 dropbacks he was worth +19.8 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position, +0.52 per dropback. The deep ball did most of it: 6 of 13 deep throws completed for 238 yards.

The throw that turned the game came up 10-9 with 4:37 left in the first half, one drive after his interception. Second and 5 at his own 37, he went deep right to Tank Dell for a 63-yard touchdown: +5.5 EPA and 18.4 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. Before halftime he hit Dalton Schultz for 14 on third and 10, then Kayshon Boutte for 35 and a 12-yard touchdown with 31 seconds left. Up 31-9 early in the fourth, third and 5 at his own 37, he found Boutte deep over the middle for a 63-yard touchdown, +6.4 EPA. Xavier Hutchinson and Nico Collins caught the other two, both on third and 6.

The cost came up 10-6 in the second quarter. First and 10 at his own 45, he threw short over the middle for Boutte and Daiyan Henley intercepted, returning it 18 yards to the Houston 38: -6.0 EPA and 16 points of win probability. The Chargers kicked a field goal for 10-9.

It was his best game of the season by a distance. Before the bye, through seven games, he was at +0.14 per dropback, +37.2 EPA on 266 dropbacks, with 11 touchdown passes and one interception; his previous high was 353 yards, against the Bengals in Week 2. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was -1.4 here.

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_Data via nflverse._