Nico Collins

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• Camp · Aug 23, 2026Aug 23, 2026

  Nico Collins Camp Update — August 23: Testing the Raiders All Session

  Nico Collins spent the joint practice attacking the Raiders' secondary with C.J. Stroud, per the Raiders' own site, and drew one of Stroud's best throws again on Saturday. He also became the only returning starter left in his receiver room.

• Camp · Aug 16, 2026Aug 17, 2026

  Nico Collins Camp Update — August 16: Still the First Read Against the Blitz

  When C.J. Stroud beat a blitz in Monday's practice, the ball went to Nico Collins, and Stroud's best throw of the day went to Collins too. The alpha usage June called trustworthy is showing up in camp.

• 2026 PreviewJun 13, 2026

  Nico Collins 2026 Season Preview — the quiet alpha, fairly priced

  Collins finished WR9 in 2025 with 12.7 half-PPR points per game across 15 games, production built on a sustained alpha role in Houston's passing game rather than on touchdown variance or efficiency spikes. The inputs driving that finish — consistent target volume as the clear top option — are the kind that carry between seasons, though his 77.6% availability rate from 2021–25 is the real variable to watch.

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  Show notes & transcript

  Nico Collins has quietly been a top-11 receiver three years running, and the market has finally caught up — he's priced almost exactly where he keeps finishing. No edge to sell you here, just a steady alpha and the reason his floor is so trustworthy. The Muffed 2026 preview.

  The season: 12-seven a game, WR10 per game, as the verified number-one receiver on a 12-five playoff team — and he did it on the league's 20-first-ranked offense with C.J. Stroud missing time, to the point where backup Davis Mills threw him a touchdown. 1117 yards, 71 catches, a 24 percent target share and 35 percent of the air yards. The signature was a two-score, 23 point afternoon against Arizona in a blowout win. 11 double-digit games in 15 — a real floor.

  The arc is the opposite of a fluke: 14-seven, 14-seven, 12-seven over his three full seasons as Houston's alpha. Steady, repeatable, alpha usage — exactly the profile that doesn't surprise you in either direction.

  What repeats: the targets, the stickiest stat in football, and his have been rock-solid in the hundred-20 range. The touchdown share, at 19 percent, is clean — just under the fade line, no luck to surrender. There's no pattern in the library that fires on him, for or against. He is what a correctly-priced alpha looks like in the data.

  The situation is stable and turned more positive, per the reports: Houston reworked his deal in late May for a 17-million-dollar raise, after GM Nick Caserio publicly shut down trade rumors at the draft — "we're not trading Nico Collins." Stroud is locked in through 2027, and the two have publicly leaned into a chip-on-the-shoulder 2026 under new offensive coordinator Nick Caley, whose scheme reportedly leaves more room for Collins to be featured. A healthier Stroud season is pure upside on a profile that already produced WR11 numbers with him hurt. The honest caveat: that offense still has to prove the new scheme works, and Collins himself described learning it as like forgetting a previous language.

  The price: pick 23, the ninth receiver. Verdict: NO CALL — he finished WR10, he's priced WR9, and that one-rank premium is the market fairly paying for the Stroud-bounce upside and now a raise that says the building believes in the pairing. The counter, briefly: a receiver this dependent on one quarterback's health carries more variance than the clean line suggests, and the offense around him was genuinely bad last year. But a proven alpha at his market rate, freshly paid, is a pick you make without anxiety.

  September watch: Stroud's health and the new offense's overall efficiency — Collins is solved, the situation is the variable; and whether the target share climbs if Houston throws more under Caley. Your whole roster gets this treatment every week — that's the show.

• 2025 ReviewMay 11, 2026

  Nico Collins 2025 Season in Review

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  Show notes & transcript

  Nico Collins finished 2025 as the number 8 wide receiver in total PPR scoring and the number 11 wide receiver in PPR per game. A top-10 finish — in a year where Houston's offense was a slog. The Texans ranked 20-first in total offensive expected points added, C.J. Stroud missed time, and backup Davis Mills even threw Collins one of his touchdowns. Yet Collins quietly stacked 1,117 yards on 71 catches over 15 games as the verified number one receiver on a 12-and-5 playoff team. Workhorse volume, alpha targets, an offense with no other answers. The ranking is real — it just came the hard way.

  Now let's dig into the numbers, because they show exactly how Collins earned that finish. The usage was elite: a 24 percent average target share and a 35 percent average air yards share — more than a third of every downfield throw Houston attempted aimed his way. He turned 120 targets into plus 39.3 receiving expected points added, with 324 yards after the catch and 1.69 yards after catch above expectation per reception. He was creating after the ball arrived, not just running past people. His average separation of 2.3 yards is modest — meaning he was winning contested looks against top corners, not running open. And he was steady: 15.1 PPR per game, double-digit scoring in 11 of 15, with a clear high-end gear in Weeks 10, 11, 13, and 15 where he posted between 21 and 24 points. The muffed games were narrow — a 5.5 in the Week 1 loss to the Rams and a 6.7 in Seattle. For a receiver carrying this much air-yards freight, that's a steady floor.

  The play that captures the season came in Week 15 against the Cardinals — fourth quarter, third and four from the Arizona four-yard line, Texans up 33 to 20. Shotgun, Stroud to Collins on a short middle route. Four yards. Touchdown. His second score of the day in a 40-to-20 win, capping a 24-point afternoon on three catches for 85 yards and two scores. The alpha receiver getting fed in the red zone on third down when Houston needed to ice the game. That's the Collins year in one snap: not always loud, almost always central, the guy his offense trusted when the situation got tight.