Nico Collins — Week 1: Ten Targets, and Three Deep Ones Missed
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 14
Collins was thrown to ten times, a quarter of Houston's pass plays, and caught seven for seventy-five yards and the twelve-yard touchdown that made it 21–24 with thirty-one seconds left in the half. His twenty-five-yard catch on third and eight set up the game's first touchdown at the Buffalo two, and the three incompletions were all deep, the last with twenty seconds left from the Buffalo eighteen, in a 36–31 loss to the Bills.
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Nico Collins's first catch of the season put Houston at the two, and his fourth put Houston in the end zone. Third and eight at the Buffalo 27, two 30 left in the first quarter, Texans down three to nothing: C.J. Stroud deep right, 25 yards, pushed out at the two by C.J. Gardner-Johnson. That was worth +3.0 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — the largest number in his day, and David Montgomery scored from the one three carries later. Then, first and 10 at the Buffalo 12 with 31 seconds left in the half, down 14 to 24, short middle, 12 yards, touchdown, +2.2 and eight points of win probability.
The line: 10 targets, seven catches, 75 yards, one touchdown, +4.9 expected points on the targets, and a hundred 20 air yards on the 10 throws. The catches went nine, 25, 12, nine, six, two and 12. The three incompletions were all deep — 20 yards in the air first and 10 at the Buffalo 31 in the third, 16 in the air first and 10 at the Houston 35 in the fourth, and 17 in the air on second and 18 from the Buffalo 18 with 20 seconds left, the snap before the sack that ended it. Two more throws to him were wiped out by Buffalo penalties, a three-yard catch on a defensive hold and a deep incompletion that drew a 21-yard interference call. The one catch that hurt was third and six at the Buffalo 41 with seven 30 left, two yards short middle, −1.6, and Houston kicked a 58-yard field goal on fourth and four. He also ran once, around right end for seven and a first down.
10 targets was first on the team, ahead of Dalton Schultz's eight and Xavier Hutchinson's six, on 41 Houston pass plays. Three of the 10 came before halftime and seven after. The 75 yards led the receivers by 22 over Jaylin Noel's 53 on two catches, with Xavier Hutchinson next at 32, and his +4.9 led Houston's pass-catchers, with Noel's +4.0 next on a fifth of the targets.
Back in June the preview called Collins the quiet alpha, fairly priced: a ninth-place finish among wide receivers across 15 games, a sustained lead role, with availability at 77.6 percent as the one variable. Sunday he was available, he had the lead role by a clear margin, and the deep throws did not connect. One game says nothing about availability except that he played it, and the alpha share was exactly what was priced. Houston is home to the Bengals on Sunday the twentieth.
_Data via nflverse._
When Nico Collins's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
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