C.J. Stroud

C.J. Stroud finished 2025 as the number 21 quarterback in total PPR scoring and the number 22 in points per game — and that's the headline you sit with, because the Texans went 12 and 5, rode the number one defense in the league to a playoff win, and didn't need Stroud to be a hero. He played 14 games, missed a chunk in the middle, and was a perfectly competent NFL starter the rest of the way. Houston's defense allowed minus 129.1 expected points added on the year — first in the entire NFL — and the offense was built to manage games, not pile up garbage-time fantasy points. That's the identity of Stroud's fantasy year: real-life winning, fantasy mediocrity. He wasn't muffed by his own play. He was muffed by his team's complexion.

Now let's dig into the numbers. Stroud threw for 3,041 yards with 19 touchdowns and 8 interceptions on 423 attempts, completing 64.5 percent — and his completion percentage over expected of plus 0.8 ranked 18th among qualified passers. League-average tier, exactly. His adjusted net yards per attempt of 6.4 ranked 16th, the statistical definition of a middle-of-the-pack starter. He averaged 14.9 PPR points per game, and the game logs reveal a boom-or-bust profile dressed up as a floor play — he cleared 20 points just three times all year, posted single-digit duds against the Rams, Broncos, and Colts, and only twice strung together back-to-back games above 18. The touchdown volume is what capped him. Nineteen passing scores in 14 games is fine, but Houston's red-zone touchdown rate was 50.7 percent, sixth-percentile in the league, and only 42.2 percent of their scoring drives ended in touchdowns — dead last in the NFL. When your team kicks 48 field goals and ranks first in the league at it, your quarterback doesn't get six-point plays. He gets handoffs to the field-goal unit.

The defining throw of Stroud's season came in Week 17 against the Chargers — first quarter, first and ten from the Houston 43. Stroud took the shotgun snap and dropped a 43-yard touchdown down the left sideline to Jaylin Noel, 39 yards in the air, plus 4.0 in expected points added on a single throw. That's the Stroud the league fell in love with as a rookie — the arm talent, the deep-ball touch, the willingness to push it down the field. The Texans won 12 games and Stroud is still very much capable of those throws. He just didn't get enough of them inside the 20 — and the fantasy line paid the price.