Bryce Young — Week 9: 276 Yards, Three Scores, Two Turnovers

Bryce Young had his highest completion rate of the season against the Broncos, and two plays at the Denver end of the field cost him the rest: 28 of 39 for 276 yards, three touchdowns and an interception, sacked three times, in a 26-21 loss. Over 43 dropbacks he was worth +7.6 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position, +0.18 per dropback. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was +11.1.

The throw that cost the most came up 14-13 with 1:35 left in the third. First and goal at the Denver 1, he threw short left for Tommy Tremble; it was ruled incomplete, and Denver's challenge turned it into Devon Key's interception in the end zone: -7.0 EPA and 25.6 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Denver scored on the next drive. Down 26-21 with 1:24 left and first and 10 at the Denver 36, Nik Bonitto sacked him and took the ball away, 32.5 points of win probability.

The good outweighed it by EPA. Down 13-7, third and 9 at the Denver 15, he hit Darren Waller over the short middle for a 15-yard touchdown and the lead, +3.1 EPA. Down 26-14, fourth and 18 at the Denver 34, he went deep left to John Metchie III for 25 yards, a roughing flag added 5, and Tetairoa McMillan caught his 4-yard touchdown on the next snap.

It was well above his season. Through Week 8 he was at +0.05 per dropback, +15.8 EPA on 298 dropbacks, with a CPOE of -0.2 and 58.7% of his passes completed; here he completed 71.8%. He threw deep 8 times after once in Week 8, and the three sacks followed 11 in his previous two games.

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_Data via nflverse._