Bo Nix — Week 9: 237 Yards and a Third-Down Dagger

Bo Nix stayed efficient for a third straight week against the Panthers: 25 of 37 for 237 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, sacked once, in a 26-21 win. Over 39 dropbacks he was worth +7.3 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position, +0.19 per dropback. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was +9.2.

The throw that decided it came up 19-14 with 5:46 left. Third and 5 at the Carolina 26, one snap after an incompletion for Courtland Sutton, he went deep left to Pat Bryant for the touchdown: +3.9 EPA and 8.4 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. On the drive before, down 14-13, he converted third and 6 twice, 12 yards to Sutton and 6 to Troy Franklin, and Jonah Coleman scored. He also found Sutton for a 3-yard touchdown in the first quarter.

The cost: up 10-0 in the second, second and 8 at the Carolina 19, Corey Thornton intercepted a short throw for Sutton at the 5, -4.4 EPA. With 2:53 left he lost a snap that Coleman recovered at the Denver 8.

Through Week 8 he was at -0.003 per dropback, -0.9 EPA on 271 dropbacks, with a CPOE of -2.6 and 59.6% of his passes completed; here he completed 67.6%. The last three weeks have pulled him up: +0.35 per dropback in Week 7, +0.24 in Week 8. The 237 yards were his second-most this season, behind 288 in Week 2.

Follow Bo Nix on Muffed, and every episode lands in your weekly email.

_Data via nflverse._